MMA Handicapper Stats: Fighting Essentials |
|
Fighting Essentials: Event by Event Predictions |
The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)
Winning Events: 43 (48%) Losing Events: 46 (52%)
Average Staked Per Event: 10.86 units Most Staked On One Event: 28.00 units Best Event: 14.31 units Worst Event: -17.30 units Average Event: 0.02 units
Max Win Streak: Events: 5, Units: 30.83 Max Losing Streak: Events: 4, Units: -28.80 |
Fighting Essentials: Year on Year Profit |
Year |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Events
Won / Lost
(%) |
Profit
Per Event |
2024 |
134.5 |
18.0 |
13% |
8.5 / 78 (11%) |
|
2.8 / 23.75 (12%) |
6 / 5 (55%) |
1.64 |
2023 |
307.65 |
9.0 |
3% |
30.3 / 129.45 (23%) |
|
-15.5 / 76.5 (-20%) |
13 / 17 (43%) |
0.30 |
2022 |
479.89 |
-19.7 |
-4% |
-24.4 / 243.4 (-10%) |
|
-4.4 / 110.82 (-4%) |
23 / 23 (50%) |
-0.43 |
2021 |
44.75 |
-5.7 |
-13% |
5.0 / 9.65 (51%) |
|
-11.2 / 15 (-75%) |
1 / 1 (50%) |
-2.85 |
|
Fighting Essentials: Yearly Straight Pick Stats |
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|
Fighting Essentials: Profit / Loss by Organization |
Organization |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Straight Picks |
Props |
Parlays |
UFC |
949.89 |
11.2 |
1% |
22.7 / 450.9 (5%) |
12.4 / 277.22 (4%) |
-23.9 / 221.77 (-11%) |
Bellator |
15.9 |
-10.9 |
-68% |
-4.6 / 8.6 (-53%) |
-2.0 / 3 (-67%) |
-4.3 / 4.3 (-100%) |
Other |
1 |
1.3 |
125% |
1.3 / 1 (125%) |
|
|
|
Fighting Essentials: Straight Pick Stats |
Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
Big Favorites |
8 (4%) |
6 |
75 % |
29.50 |
1.91 |
0.24 |
6% |
Slight Favorites |
85 (40%) |
50 |
59 % |
211.60 |
-1.17 |
-0.01 |
-1% |
Slight Underdogs |
90 (43%) |
42 |
47 % |
178.90 |
2.72 |
0.03 |
2% |
Big Underdogs |
27 (13%) |
10 |
37 % |
40.50 |
15.90 |
0.59 |
39% |
Betting Stats By Card Position
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
Main Event |
36 (17%) |
16 |
44 % |
105.45 |
-14.14 |
-0.39 |
-13% |
Co-Main Event |
25 (12%) |
12 |
48 % |
58.70 |
6.43 |
0.26 |
11% |
Position 3-5 |
61 (29%) |
32 |
52 % |
127.55 |
12.13 |
0.20 |
10% |
6+ (Undercard) |
88 (42%) |
48 |
55 % |
168.80 |
14.95 |
0.17 |
9% |
|
Fighting Essentials: Profit by Weight Class |
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
Heavyweight |
12 (6%) |
4 |
33 % |
21.65 |
-3.88 |
-0.32 |
-18% |
Light Heavy |
14 (7%) |
3 |
21 % |
23.50 |
-13.21 |
-0.94 |
-56% |
Middleweight |
27 (13%) |
17 |
63 % |
58.05 |
20.30 |
0.75 |
35% |
Welterweight |
24 (11%) |
12 |
50 % |
54.70 |
2.97 |
0.12 |
5% |
Lightweight |
39 (19%) |
20 |
51 % |
86.80 |
11.70 |
0.30 |
13% |
Featherweight |
21 (10%) |
13 |
62 % |
61.90 |
-0.33 |
-0.02 |
-1% |
Bantamweight |
26 (12%) |
11 |
42 % |
62.95 |
-25.92 |
-1.00 |
-41% |
Flyweight |
19 (9%) |
8 |
42 % |
35.45 |
-2.88 |
-0.15 |
-8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Women's Fights |
28 (13%) |
20 |
71 % |
55.50 |
30.62 |
1.09 |
55% |
Featherweight |
1 (0%) |
|
0 % |
2.00 |
-2.00 |
-2.00 |
-100% |
Bantamweight |
1 (0%) |
|
0 % |
2.00 |
-2.00 |
-2.00 |
-100% |
Flyweight |
10 (5%) |
8 |
80 % |
25.50 |
19.18 |
1.92 |
75% |
Strawweight |
16 (8%) |
12 |
75 % |
26.00 |
15.44 |
0.96 |
59% |
|
Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays) |
Straight picks within parlays
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Big Favorites |
122 (77%) |
77 |
63 % |
Slight Favorites |
25 (16%) |
14 |
56 % |
Slight Underdogs |
12 (8%) |
7 |
58 % |
Big Underdogs |
0 (0%) |
0 |
nan % |
|
159 |
98 |
62 % |
Props bets and props within parlays
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
>65% chance |
74 (18%) |
51 |
69 % |
50-65% |
81 (20%) |
44 |
54 % |
35-50% |
46 (11%) |
20 |
43 % |
<35% chance |
206 (51%) |
31 |
15 % |
|
407 |
146 |
36 % |
|
Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types |
* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %. |
Tail Fighting Essentials's bets |
If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...
This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.
Date |
Event |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Fee |
1 unit = |
Start |
End |
11th Dec |
UFC 269 |
25.25 |
2.9 |
12% |
|
$10.00 |
$1,000.00 |
$1,029.38 |
18th Dec |
UFC FN |
19.5 |
-8.6 |
-44% |
|
$10.29 |
$1,029.38 |
$940.48 |
15th Jan |
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze |
7.7 |
2.8 |
36% |
|
$9.40 |
$940.48 |
$966.82 |
22nd Jan |
UFC 270 |
11.39 |
1.7 |
15% |
|
$9.67 |
$966.82 |
$983.29 |
29th Jan |
Bellator 273 |
2.3 |
-2.3 |
-100% |
|
$9.83 |
$983.29 |
$960.67 |
5th Feb |
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland |
11.4 |
2.1 |
18% |
|
$9.61 |
$960.67 |
$980.84 |
12th Feb |
UFC 271 |
20.2 |
4.8 |
24% |
|
$9.81 |
$980.84 |
$1,027.95 |
19th Feb |
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill |
10.63 |
-0.5 |
-5% |
|
$10.28 |
$1,027.95 |
$1,022.57 |
26th Feb |
UFC Fight Night: Green vs. Makhachev |
13.2 |
1.8 |
14% |
|
$10.23 |
$1,022.57 |
$1,041.18 |
5th Mar |
UFC 272 |
21.05 |
6.1 |
29% |
|
$10.41 |
$1,041.18 |
$1,104.38 |
12th Mar |
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev |
18.45 |
3.7 |
20% |
|
$11.04 |
$1,104.38 |
$1,145.42 |
12th Mar |
Bellator 276 |
4.4 |
-4.4 |
-100% |
|
$11.45 |
$1,145.42 |
$1,095.02 |
19th Mar |
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall |
18 |
4.5 |
25% |
|
$10.95 |
$1,095.02 |
$1,143.81 |
26th Mar |
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus |
19.55 |
-7.2 |
-37% |
$10 |
$11.44 |
$1,143.81 |
$1,051.58 |
9th Apr |
UFC 273 |
24.65 |
-7.7 |
-31% |
$10 |
$10.52 |
$1,051.58 |
$960.49 |
15th Apr |
Bellator 277 |
4.2 |
0.8 |
20% |
|
$9.60 |
$960.49 |
$968.50 |
16th Apr |
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad II |
15.7 |
-11.5 |
-73% |
$10 |
$9.68 |
$968.50 |
$847.12 |
23rd Apr |
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade |
8.3 |
-3.7 |
-45% |
|
$8.47 |
$847.12 |
$815.49 |
30th Apr |
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera |
8.7 |
-8.7 |
-100% |
|
$8.15 |
$815.49 |
$744.55 |
7th May |
UFC 274 |
18.05 |
6.7 |
37% |
$10 |
$7.45 |
$744.55 |
$784.77 |
14th May |
UFC Fight Night: Błachowicz vs. Rakić |
9.2 |
4.1 |
45% |
|
$7.85 |
$784.77 |
$817.25 |
21st May |
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira |
11.25 |
12.7 |
113% |
|
$8.17 |
$817.25 |
$921.31 |
27th May |
CFFC 109 |
1 |
1.3 |
125% |
|
$9.21 |
$921.31 |
$932.82 |
4th Jun |
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik |
12 |
-8.3 |
-69% |
|
$9.33 |
$932.82 |
$855.76 |
11th Jun |
UFC 275 |
15 |
-2.3 |
-15% |
|
$8.56 |
$855.76 |
$835.99 |
18th Jun |
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett |
16 |
-2.4 |
-15% |
|
$8.36 |
$835.99 |
$815.63 |
24th Jun |
Bellator 282 |
4 |
-4.0 |
-100% |
|
$8.16 |
$815.63 |
$783.00 |
25th Jun |
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot |
8.5 |
4.1 |
48% |
|
$7.83 |
$783.00 |
$814.80 |
2nd Jul |
UFC 276 |
10.7 |
-4.4 |
-41% |
|
$8.15 |
$814.80 |
$778.63 |
9th Jul |
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev |
13 |
7.8 |
60% |
|
$7.79 |
$778.63 |
$839.16 |
16th Jul |
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez |
16.5 |
-0.2 |
-1% |
|
$8.39 |
$839.16 |
$837.49 |
22nd Jul |
Bellator 283 |
1 |
-1.0 |
-100% |
|
$8.37 |
$837.49 |
$829.12 |
23rd Jul |
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall |
13.6 |
-9.7 |
-71% |
|
$8.29 |
$829.12 |
$748.91 |
30th Jul |
UFC 277 |
10 |
-0.6 |
-6% |
|
$7.49 |
$748.91 |
$744.31 |
6th Aug |
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill |
5 |
1.1 |
23% |
|
$7.44 |
$744.31 |
$752.73 |
13th Aug |
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz |
7 |
-1.4 |
-20% |
|
$7.53 |
$752.73 |
$742.07 |
20th Aug |
UFC 278 |
15.5 |
-4.2 |
-27% |
|
$7.42 |
$742.07 |
$711.27 |
3rd Sep |
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa |
7.8 |
-3.3 |
-43% |
|
$7.11 |
$711.27 |
$687.45 |
10th Sep |
UFC 279 |
15.9 |
2.4 |
15% |
|
$6.87 |
$687.45 |
$703.62 |
17th Sep |
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song |
6.5 |
-2.0 |
-30% |
|
$7.04 |
$703.62 |
$689.84 |
1st Oct |
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan |
8 |
-8.0 |
-100% |
|
$6.90 |
$689.84 |
$634.65 |
15th Oct |
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo |
2 |
2.4 |
120% |
|
$6.35 |
$634.65 |
$649.88 |
22nd Oct |
UFC 280 |
9 |
-2.4 |
-27% |
|
$6.50 |
$649.88 |
$633.97 |
12th Nov |
UFC 281 |
5.5 |
2.0 |
36% |
|
$6.34 |
$633.97 |
$646.65 |
19th Nov |
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba |
2.7 |
1.4 |
52% |
|
$6.47 |
$646.65 |
$655.77 |
3rd Dec |
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland |
4.15 |
0.1 |
4% |
|
$6.56 |
$655.77 |
$656.75 |
10th Dec |
UFC 282 |
5.3 |
3.1 |
59% |
|
$6.57 |
$656.75 |
$677.19 |
17th Dec |
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland |
5.92 |
3.0 |
51% |
|
$6.77 |
$677.19 |
$697.58 |
14th Jan |
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov |
9.6 |
-2.3 |
-24% |
|
$6.98 |
$697.58 |
$681.30 |
21st Jan |
UFC 283 |
11 |
-2.1 |
-19% |
|
$6.81 |
$681.30 |
$666.99 |
4th Feb |
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivak |
3 |
-1.1 |
-38% |
|
$6.67 |
$666.99 |
$659.49 |
11th Feb |
UFC 284 |
9.45 |
-5.1 |
-54% |
|
$6.59 |
$659.49 |
$625.85 |
25th Feb |
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen |
6.7 |
3.6 |
54% |
|
$6.26 |
$625.85 |
$648.39 |
4th Mar |
UFC 285 |
11 |
1.2 |
11% |
|
$6.48 |
$648.39 |
$656.34 |
11th Mar |
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili |
15.6 |
-10.9 |
-70% |
|
$6.56 |
$656.34 |
$584.80 |
18th Mar |
UFC 286 |
8.6 |
2.1 |
25% |
|
$5.85 |
$584.80 |
$597.36 |
25th Mar |
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen |
5.2 |
4.8 |
93% |
|
$5.97 |
$597.36 |
$626.18 |
8th Apr |
UFC 287 |
13.05 |
-1.9 |
-14% |
|
$6.26 |
$626.18 |
$614.51 |
15th Apr |
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen |
9 |
3.6 |
40% |
|
$6.15 |
$614.51 |
$636.45 |
22nd Apr |
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes |
5.7 |
-3.0 |
-52% |
|
$6.36 |
$636.45 |
$617.67 |
29th Apr |
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simón |
6.1 |
-1.0 |
-17% |
|
$6.18 |
$617.67 |
$611.38 |
6th May |
UFC 288 |
14.65 |
-4.9 |
-33% |
|
$6.11 |
$611.38 |
$581.69 |
10th Jun |
UFC 289 |
9 |
3.3 |
37% |
|
$5.82 |
$581.69 |
$601.11 |
17th Jun |
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier |
7 |
8.5 |
121% |
|
$6.01 |
$601.11 |
$652.13 |
24th Jun |
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria |
12.75 |
1.1 |
9% |
|
$6.52 |
$652.13 |
$659.30 |
1st Jul |
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov |
14.5 |
-1.0 |
-7% |
|
$6.59 |
$659.30 |
$652.58 |
8th Jul |
UFC 290 |
12.75 |
14.3 |
112% |
|
$6.53 |
$652.58 |
$745.96 |
15th Jul |
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva |
8.5 |
-2.7 |
-31% |
|
$7.46 |
$745.96 |
$726.07 |
22nd Jul |
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura |
14.5 |
-4.9 |
-34% |
|
$7.26 |
$726.07 |
$690.27 |
29th Jul |
UFC 291 |
16 |
14.1 |
88% |
|
$6.90 |
$690.27 |
$787.34 |
5th Aug |
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font |
10.5 |
-5.9 |
-56% |
|
$7.87 |
$787.34 |
$740.75 |
12th Aug |
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos |
7.25 |
-0.7 |
-10% |
|
$7.41 |
$740.75 |
$735.20 |
19th Aug |
UFC 292 |
13.25 |
-10.5 |
-79% |
|
$7.35 |
$735.20 |
$658.11 |
9th Sep |
UFC 293 |
6.5 |
0.3 |
5% |
|
$6.58 |
$658.11 |
$660.28 |
16th Sep |
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko II |
3 |
-3.0 |
-100% |
|
$6.60 |
$660.28 |
$640.47 |
23rd Sep |
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot |
5.5 |
-5.5 |
-100% |
|
$6.40 |
$640.47 |
$605.24 |
11th Nov |
UFC 295 |
10 |
6.5 |
65% |
|
$6.05 |
$605.24 |
$644.70 |
16th Dec |
UFC 296 |
28 |
12.0 |
43% |
|
$6.45 |
$644.70 |
$722.14 |
13th Jan |
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker |
9.25 |
9.4 |
101% |
|
$7.22 |
$722.14 |
$789.84 |
20th Jan |
UFC 297 |
13.5 |
2.9 |
22% |
|
$7.90 |
$789.84 |
$812.94 |
3rd Feb |
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov |
8 |
-3.1 |
-39% |
|
$8.13 |
$812.94 |
$787.35 |
10th Feb |
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer |
15 |
9.8 |
66% |
|
$7.87 |
$787.35 |
$864.87 |
17th Feb |
UFC 298 |
21.25 |
11.2 |
53% |
|
$8.65 |
$864.87 |
$962.05 |
24th Feb |
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval |
9 |
6.1 |
68% |
|
$9.62 |
$962.05 |
$1,020.73 |
2nd Mar |
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev |
5 |
-0.5 |
-10% |
|
$10.21 |
$1,020.73 |
$1,015.63 |
9th Mar |
UFC 299 |
24.5 |
-17.3 |
-71% |
|
$10.16 |
$1,015.63 |
$839.92 |
23rd Mar |
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas |
8 |
-8.0 |
-100% |
|
$8.40 |
$839.92 |
$772.73 |
30th Mar |
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot |
3 |
-3.0 |
-100% |
|
$7.73 |
$772.73 |
$749.55 |
13th Apr |
UFC 300 |
18 |
10.5 |
58% |
|
$7.50 |
$749.55 |
$828.16 |
ROI % from starting bank balance: -17.18% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now. |
Fighting Essentials: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks) |
Last 20 Wins
|
Date |
Straight Pick |
Opponent |
Odds |
Bet |
Result |
|
|
1. |
Apr '24 |
Diego Lopes |
Sodiq Yusuff |
1.68 |
3 |
TKO, R1 (1:29) |
|
|
2. |
Apr '24 |
Max Holloway |
Justin Gaethje |
2.24 |
4 |
TKO, R5 (4:59) |
|
|
3. |
Mar '24 |
Petr Yan |
Yadong Song |
1.80 |
4 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
4. |
Feb '24 |
Brian Ortega |
Yair Rodriguez |
2.20 |
3 |
Sub, R3 (0:58) |
|
|
5. |
Feb '24 |
Brandon Royval |
Brandon Moreno |
3.40 |
2.5 |
Split Decision (5 rounds) |
|
|
6. |
Feb '24 |
Ilia Topuria |
Alex Volkanovski |
2.05 |
1 |
TKO, R2 (3:32) |
|
|
7. |
Feb '24 |
Ilia Topuria |
Alex Volkanovski |
2.05 |
1 |
TKO, R2 (3:32) |
|
|
8. |
Feb '24 |
Ilia Topuria |
Alex Volkanovski |
2.05 |
3 |
TKO, R2 (3:32) |
|
|
9. |
Feb '24 |
Amanda Lemos |
Mackenzie Dern |
1.77 |
3.5 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
10. |
Feb '24 |
Rodolfo Vieira |
Armen Petrosyan |
1.80 |
3 |
Sub, R1 (4:48) |
|
|
11. |
Feb '24 |
Max Griffin |
Jeremiah Wells |
2.54 |
3 |
Split Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
12. |
Jan '24 |
Dricus Du Plessis |
Sean Strickland |
2.05 |
3 |
Split Decision (5 rounds) |
|
|
13. |
Feb '24 |
Nassourdine Imavov |
Roman Dolidze |
1.62 |
3 |
Split Decision (5 rounds) |
|
|
14. |
Jan '24 |
Mario Bautista |
Ricky Simon |
2.50 |
2 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
15. |
Jan '24 |
Preston Parsons |
Matt Semelsberger |
1.91 |
2.5 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
16. |
Dec '23 |
Ariane Lipski |
Casey O'Neill |
2.64 |
2 |
Sub, R2 (1:18) |
|
|
17. |
Dec '23 |
Josh Emmett |
Bryce Mitchell |
2.95 |
2 |
TKO, R1 (1:57) |
|
|
18. |
Dec '23 |
Leon Edwards |
Colby Covington |
1.62 |
4 |
U Decision (5 rounds) |
|
|
19. |
Nov '23 |
Diego Lopes |
Pat Sabatini |
1.98 |
3 |
TKO, R1 (1:30) |
|
|
20. |
Nov '23 |
Tom Aspinall |
Sergey Pavlovich |
1.93 |
3 |
TKO, R1 (1:9) |
|
|
Last 20 Losses
* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision. |
Fighting Essentials: Progress Chart |
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