MMA Handicapper Directory
Total MMA Handicappers: 6365
Profitable MMA Handicappers: 2352

MMA Handicapper Stats: Earl Sweat

Earl Sweat (EarlyMornings)

MMA MHandicapper - Earl Sweat

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	31 (41%)	Right	23 (43%)	Right	4 (33%)	Right	4 (36%)
Wrong	45 (59%)	Wrong	30 (57%)	Wrong	8 (67%)	Wrong	7 (64%)
Avg Odds	1.83	Avg Odds	1.86	Avg Odds	1.64	Avg Odds	1.88
Units Bet	272.5	Units Bet	194.5	Units Bet	35.0	Units Bet	43.0
Avg Bet	3.59	Avg Bet	3.67	Avg Bet	2.92	Avg Bet	3.91
Units Profit	-63.11	Units Profit	-24.75	Units Profit	-15.23	Units Profit	-23.13
ROI %	-23%	ROI %	-13%	ROI %	-44%	ROI %	-54%

Earl Sweat: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
9th Jul '22	UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev	47	-20.8	-44%	-5.5 / 22 (-25%)	0.8 / 9 (8%)	-16.0 / 16 (-100%)
2nd Jul '22	UFC 276	17	-9.8	-58%	-9.8 / 17 (-58%)
25th Jun '22	UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot	10.5	-4.7	-45%	-1.7 / 7.5 (-23%)	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)
11th Jun '22	UFC 275	16	-4.3	-27%	1.7 / 10 (17%)	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)
21st May '22	UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira	9	6.3	70%	6.3 / 9 (70%)
14th May '22	UFC Fight Night: Błachowicz vs. Rakić	5	-5.0	-100%	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
7th May '22	UFC 274	11	2.7	25%	-0.1 / 8 (-1%)		2.8 / 3 (93%)
23rd Apr '22	UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade	9	-9.0	-100%	-6.0 / 6 (-100%)	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)
9th Apr '22	UFC 273	10	3.8	38%	3.8 / 10 (38%)
26th Mar '22	UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus	7	-7.0	-100%	-7.0 / 7 (-100%)
19th Mar '22	UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall	7	-1.7	-24%	-1.7 / 7 (-24%)
12th Mar '22	UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev	8	3.1	39%	3.1 / 8 (39%)
5th Mar '22	UFC 272	7	6.0	85%	6.0 / 7 (85%)
26th Feb '22	UFC Fight Night: Green vs. Makhachev	6.5	-0.5	-8%	-0.5 / 6.5 (-8%)
19th Feb '22	UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill	4	-4.0	-100%	-4.0 / 4 (-100%)
12th Feb '22	UFC 271	4	2.4	61%	2.4 / 4 (61%)
5th Feb '22	UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland	4	-4.0	-100%			-4.0 / 4 (-100%)
22nd Jan '22	UFC 270	4	-4.0	-100%	-4.0 / 4 (-100%)
18th Dec '21	UFC FN	8	10.0	126%	8.6 / 4 (215%)	1.4 / 4 (36%)
11th Dec '21	UFC 269	4	-4.0	-100%		-4.0 / 4 (-100%)
20th Nov '21	UFC FN	15	6.4	43%	6.4 / 15 (43%)
13th Nov '21	UFC FN	17	-11.8	-69%	-14.0 / 14 (-100%)		2.2 / 3 (73%)
6th Nov '21	UFC 268	11	-0.9	-8%	0.7 / 4 (17%)	-4.0 / 4 (-100%)	2.4 / 3 (81%)
30th Oct '21	UFC 267	7	1.0	15%	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)	1.6 / 3 (53%)	1.5 / 2 (73%)
4th Sep '21	UFC FN	3	-3.0	-100%	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)
28th Aug '21	UFC FN	15	-13.3	-89%	-2.3 / 4 (-58%)	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)	-9.0 / 9 (-100%)
21st Aug '21	UFC FN	6.5	2.9	44%	2.9 / 6.5 (44%)

Winning Events: 10 (37%)
Losing Events: 17 (63%)

Average Staked Per Event: 10.09 units
Most Staked On One Event: 47.00 units
Best Event: 10.04 units
Worst Event: -20.75 units
Average Event: -2.34 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 2, Units: 10.04
Max Losing Streak: Events: 4, Units: -39.63

Earl Sweat: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2022	186	-50.4	-27%	-22.0 / 142 (-15%)		-20.2 / 26 (-78%)	6 / 12 (33%)	-2.80
2021	86.5	-12.7	-15%	-2.8 / 52.5 (-5%)		-2.9 / 17 (-17%)	4 / 5 (44%)	-1.41

Earl Sweat: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

To view these stats, you need to be a VIP

Earl Sweat: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	272.5	-63.1	-23%	-24.8 / 194.5 (-13%)	-15.2 / 35 (-44%)	-23.1 / 43 (-54%)

Earl Sweat: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	4 (8%)	3	75 %	30.00	7.10	1.77	24%
Slight Favorites	32 (60%)	14	44 %	115.50	-32.55	-1.02	-28%
Slight Underdogs	14 (26%)	5	36 %	41.00	-3.90	-0.28	-10%
Big Underdogs	3 (6%)	1	33 %	8.00	4.60	1.53	58%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	4 (8%)	0	0 %	13.00	-13.00	-3.25	-100%
Co-Main Event	6 (11%)	1	17 %	20.00	-7.40	-1.23	-37%
Position 3-5	15 (28%)	9	60 %	51.50	9.60	0.64	19%
6+ (Undercard)	28 (53%)	13	46 %	110.00	-13.96	-0.50	-13%

Earl Sweat: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	4 (8%)		0 %	10.00	-10.00	-2.50	-100%
Light Heavy	2 (4%)	2	100 %	7.00	5.97	2.98	85%
Middleweight	6 (11%)	2	33 %	27.00	-16.22	-2.70	-60%
Welterweight	7 (13%)	3	43 %	22.50	3.11	0.44	14%
Lightweight	8 (15%)	3	38 %	32.00	-4.53	-0.57	-14%
Featherweight	4 (8%)	1	25 %	13.00	-8.00	-2.00	-62%
Bantamweight	6 (11%)	3	50 %	16.50	-2.97	-0.49	-18%
Flyweight	3 (6%)	1	33 %	11.00	-5.00	-1.67	-45%

Women's Fights	13 (25%)	8	62 %	55.50	12.89	0.99	23%
Featherweight	1 (2%)		0 %	2.00	-2.00	-2.00	-100%
Bantamweight	1 (2%)		0 %	3.00	-3.00	-3.00	-100%
Flyweight	5 (9%)	3	60 %	25.50	5.40	1.08	21%
Strawweight	6 (11%)	5	83 %	25.00	12.50	2.08	50%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	17 (81%)	12	71 %
Slight Favorites	4 (19%)	0	0 %
Slight Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %
Big Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %
	21	12	57 %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	6 (43%)	4	67 %
50-65%	8 (57%)	2	25 %
35-50%	0 (0%)	0	nan %
<35% chance	0 (0%)	0	nan %
	14	6	43 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	5 (36%)	3	60 %	1.48	1.63	1.20	-0.5 (-11%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	4 (29%)	1	25 %	1.60	1.69	1.50	-2.5 (-63%)
Does not go to Decision	4 (29%)	2	50 %	1.44	1.57	1.20	-1.3 (-32%)
Others	1 (7%)	0	0 %	1.91	1.91	1.91	-1.0 (-100%)
	14	6	43 %	1.52			-5.3 (-38%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Earl Sweat's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
21st Aug	UFC FN	6.5	2.9	44%		$10.00	$1,000.00	$1,028.52
28th Aug	UFC FN	15	-13.3	-89%		$10.29	$1,028.52	$891.38
4th Sep	UFC FN	3	-3.0	-100%		$8.91	$891.38	$864.64
30th Oct	UFC 267	7	1.0	15%		$8.65	$864.64	$873.70
6th Nov	UFC 268	11	-0.9	-8%		$8.74	$873.70	$865.82
13th Nov	UFC FN	17	-11.8	-69%		$8.66	$865.82	$763.54
20th Nov	UFC FN	15	6.4	43%		$7.64	$763.54	$812.49
11th Dec	UFC 269	4	-4.0	-100%		$8.12	$812.49	$780.00
18th Dec	UFC FN	8	10.0	126%		$7.80	$780.00	$858.34
22nd Jan	UFC 270	4	-4.0	-100%		$8.58	$858.34	$824.00
5th Feb	UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland	4	-4.0	-100%		$8.24	$824.00	$791.04
12th Feb	UFC 271	4	2.4	61%		$7.91	$791.04	$810.22
19th Feb	UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill	4	-4.0	-100%		$8.10	$810.22	$777.81
26th Feb	UFC Fight Night: Green vs. Makhachev	6.5	-0.5	-8%		$7.78	$777.81	$773.92
5th Mar	UFC 272	7	6.0	85%		$7.74	$773.92	$820.12
12th Mar	UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev	8	3.1	39%		$8.20	$820.12	$845.55
19th Mar	UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall	7	-1.7	-24%		$8.46	$845.55	$831.24
26th Mar	UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus	7	-7.0	-100%		$8.31	$831.24	$773.05
9th Apr	UFC 273	10	3.8	38%		$7.73	$773.05	$802.73
23rd Apr	UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade	9	-9.0	-100%		$8.03	$802.73	$730.49
7th May	UFC 274	11	2.7	25%		$7.30	$730.49	$750.41
14th May	UFC Fight Night: Błachowicz vs. Rakić	5	-5.0	-100%		$7.50	$750.41	$712.89
21st May	UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira	9	6.3	70%		$7.13	$712.89	$758.10
11th Jun	UFC 275	16	-4.3	-27%		$7.58	$758.10	$725.43
25th Jun	UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot	10.5	-4.7	-45%		$7.25	$725.43	$691.03
2nd Jul	UFC 276	17	-9.8	-58%		$6.91	$691.03	$623.14
9th Jul	UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev	47	-20.8	-44%		$6.23	$623.14	$493.84

ROI % from starting bank balance: -50.62% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Earl Sweat: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Jul '22	Jamie Mullarkey	Michael Johnson	1.50	11	Split Decision (3 rounds)
2.	Jul '22	Bryan Barberena	Robbie Lawler	2.05	3.5	TKO, R2 (4:47)
3.	Jun '22	Mario Bautista	Brian Kelleher	1.65	3.5	Sub, R1 (2:27)
4.	Jun '22	Silvana Gomez Juarez	Na Liang	1.95	3	TKO, R1 (1:22)
5.	Jun '22	Jack Della Maddalena	Ramazan Emeev	1.67	3.5	TKO, R1 (2:32)
6.	May '22	Jonathan Martinez	Vincent Morales	1.53	4	U Decision (3 rounds)
7.	May '22	Tabatha Ricci	Polyana Viana	1.85	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
8.	May '22	Lupita Godinez	Ariane Carnelossi	1.59	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
9.	Apr '22	Mark O. Madsen	Vinc Pichel	2.10	3	U Decision (3 rounds)
10.	Apr '22	Piera Rodriguez	Kay Hansen	1.88	4	U Decision (3 rounds)
11.	Mar '22	Molly McCann	Luana Carolina	1.77	3	TKO, R3 (1:52)
12.	Mar '22	J.J. Aldrich	Gillian Robertson	2.22	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
13.	Mar '22	Dustin Jacoby	Michal Oleksiejczuk	1.56	3.5	U Decision (3 rounds)
14.	Mar '22	Nick Negumereanu	Kennedy Nzechukwu	2.15	3.5	Split Decision (3 rounds)
15.	Feb '22	Carlos Hernandez	Victor Altamirano	1.71	3.5	Split Decision (3 rounds)
16.	Feb '22	Jared Cannonier	Derek Brunson	1.61	4	TKO, R2 (4:29)
17.	Dec '21	Belal Muhammad	Stephen Thompson	3.15	4	U Decision (3 rounds)
18.	Nov '21	Lupita Godinez	Loma Lookboonmee	1.73	4	U Decision (3 rounds)
19.	Nov '21	Taila Santos	Joanne Wood	1.32	11	Sub, R1 (4:49)
20.	Nov '21	Justin Gaethje	Michael Chandler	1.56	3	U Decision (3 rounds)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Jul '22	Tresean Gore	Cody Brundage	1.90	11	TKO, R1 (3:50)	No
2.	Jul '22	Jessica-Rose Clark	Julija Stoliarenko	1.69	3	Sub, R1 (0:42)	No
3.	Jul '22	Brad Riddell	Jalin Turner	2.40	3.5	Sub, R1 (0:45)	No
4.	Jul '22	Max Holloway	Alex Volkanovski	2.85	3.5	U Decision (5 rounds)	No
5.	Jul '22	Sean Strickland	Alex Pereira	2.00	3.5	TKO, R1 (2:36)	No
6.	Jun '22	Arman Tsarukyan	Mateusz Gamrot	1.44	4	U Decision (5 rounds)	No
7.	Jun '22	Andre Fialho	Jake Matthews	1.73	3.5	TKO, R2 (2:24)	No
8.	May '22	Andrea Lee	Viviane Araujo	1.91	5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
9.	May '22	Justin Gaethje	Charles Oliveira	2.45	3	Sub, R1 (3:22)	No
10.	Apr '22	Dwight Grant	Sergey Khandozhko	2.00	3	TKO, R2 (4:15)	No
11.	Apr '22	Evan Elder	Preston Parsons	2.62	3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
12.	Apr '22	Jared Vanderaa	Aleksei Oleinik	1.95	3	Sub, R1 (3:39)	No
13.	Mar '22	David Dvorak	Matheus Nicolau	1.83	3.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
14.	Mar '22	Danaa Batgerel	Chris Gutierrez	1.77	3.5	TKO, R2 (2:34)	No
15.	Mar '22	Mike Grundy	Makwan Amirkhani	1.57	4	Sub, R1 (0:57)	No
16.	Mar '22	Kris Moutinho	Guido Cannetti	1.69	3	TKO, R1 (2:7)	No
17.	Feb '22	Misha Cirkunov	Wellington Turman	1.87	3	Sub, R2 (1:29)	No
18.	Feb '22	Diana Belbita	Gloria de Paula	1.83	4	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
19.	Jan '22	Brandon Moreno	Deiveson Figueiredo	1.59	4	U Decision (5 rounds)	No
20.	Nov '21	Julio Arce	Yadong Song	2.25	1.5	TKO, R2 (1:35)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Earl Sweat: Progress Chart

Chart

Betting Favorites vs Underdogs
In Depth UFC Fight Stats
List of MMA Bookmakers
Best MMA Tipsters
Next UFC Event