|
MMA Handicapper Stats: BeatingThe Closing Line |
|
BeatingThe Closing Line: Event by Event Predictions |
The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)
Winning Events: 57 (68%) Losing Events: 27 (32%)
Average Staked Per Event: 5.92 units Most Staked On One Event: 23.13 units Best Event: 12.00 units Worst Event: -9.21 units Average Event: 1.15 units
Max Win Streak: Events: 10, Units: 28.92 Max Losing Streak: Events: 4, Units: -12.94 |
BeatingThe Closing Line: Year on Year Profit |
Year |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%) |
Events
Won / Lost
(%) |
Profit
Per Event |
2023 |
12 |
5.8 |
49% |
5.8 / 12 (49%) |
|
|
3 / 1 (75%) |
1.46 |
2022 |
102 |
49.1 |
48% |
49.1 / 102 (48%) |
|
|
20 / 6 (77%) |
1.89 |
2021 |
383.63 |
41.2 |
11% |
38.1 / 372.63 (10%) |
|
|
34 / 20 (63%) |
0.76 |
|
BeatingThe Closing Line: Yearly Straight Pick Stats |
To view these stats, you need to be a VIP
|
BeatingThe Closing Line: Profit / Loss by Organization |
Organization |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Straight Picks |
Props |
Parlays |
UFC |
273.13 |
44.2 |
16% |
41.1 / 262.13 (16%) |
3.2 / 11 (29%) |
|
Bellator |
59 |
4.7 |
8% |
4.7 / 59 (8%) |
|
|
PFL |
77.5 |
14.2 |
18% |
14.2 / 77.5 (18%) |
|
|
Other |
88 |
33.1 |
38% |
33.1 / 88 (38%) |
|
|
|
BeatingThe Closing Line: Straight Pick Stats |
Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
Big Favorites |
37 (23%) |
29 |
78 % |
119.50 |
8.32 |
0.22 |
7% |
Slight Favorites |
54 (34%) |
36 |
67 % |
159.00 |
27.39 |
0.51 |
17% |
Slight Underdogs |
56 (35%) |
33 |
59 % |
166.13 |
51.33 |
0.92 |
31% |
Big Underdogs |
14 (9%) |
4 |
29 % |
42.00 |
6.00 |
0.43 |
14% |
Betting Stats By Card Position
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
Main Event |
33 (20%) |
20 |
61 % |
107.50 |
8.40 |
0.25 |
8% |
Co-Main Event |
23 (14%) |
15 |
65 % |
71.00 |
11.03 |
0.48 |
16% |
Position 3-5 |
40 (25%) |
26 |
65 % |
118.00 |
35.05 |
0.88 |
30% |
6+ (Undercard) |
65 (40%) |
41 |
63 % |
190.13 |
38.55 |
0.59 |
20% |
|
BeatingThe Closing Line: Profit by Weight Class |
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
Heavyweight |
25 (16%) |
13 |
52 % |
74.50 |
-5.13 |
-0.21 |
-7% |
Light Heavy |
13 (8%) |
10 |
77 % |
43.00 |
14.98 |
1.15 |
35% |
Middleweight |
16 (10%) |
9 |
56 % |
48.00 |
2.91 |
0.18 |
6% |
Welterweight |
20 (12%) |
14 |
70 % |
60.00 |
24.63 |
1.23 |
41% |
Lightweight |
22 (14%) |
17 |
77 % |
71.00 |
34.62 |
1.57 |
49% |
Featherweight |
28 (17%) |
16 |
57 % |
86.00 |
4.56 |
0.16 |
5% |
Bantamweight |
11 (7%) |
6 |
55 % |
30.00 |
6.78 |
0.62 |
23% |
Flyweight |
5 (3%) |
3 |
60 % |
15.00 |
2.43 |
0.49 |
16% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Women's Fights |
21 (13%) |
14 |
67 % |
59.13 |
7.26 |
0.35 |
12% |
Featherweight |
4 (2%) |
1 |
25 % |
12.00 |
-7.35 |
-1.84 |
-61% |
Bantamweight |
5 (3%) |
4 |
80 % |
15.00 |
3.36 |
0.67 |
22% |
Flyweight |
9 (6%) |
7 |
78 % |
23.13 |
9.18 |
1.02 |
40% |
Strawweight |
3 (2%) |
2 |
67 % |
9.00 |
2.07 |
0.69 |
23% |
|
Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays) |
Straight picks within parlays
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Big Favorites |
0 (nan%) |
0 |
nan % |
Slight Favorites |
0 (nan%) |
0 |
nan % |
Slight Underdogs |
0 (nan%) |
0 |
nan % |
Big Underdogs |
0 (nan%) |
0 |
nan % |
|
0 |
0 |
nan % |
Props bets and props within parlays
|
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
>65% chance |
0 (0%) |
0 |
nan % |
50-65% |
0 (0%) |
0 |
nan % |
35-50% |
2 (50%) |
1 |
50 % |
<35% chance |
2 (50%) |
1 |
50 % |
|
4 |
2 |
50 % |
|
Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types |
* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %. |
Tail BeatingThe Closing Line's bets |
If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...
This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.
Date |
Event |
Bet |
Won |
ROI |
Fee |
1 unit = |
Start |
End |
1st May |
UFC FN |
5 |
-0.6 |
-12% |
|
$10.00 |
$1,000.00 |
$994.00 |
6th May |
PFL 2021: Week 3 |
2.5 |
-2.5 |
-100% |
|
$9.94 |
$994.00 |
$969.15 |
7th May |
Bellator 258 |
5 |
1.1 |
22% |
|
$9.69 |
$969.15 |
$979.81 |
8th May |
UFC FN |
3 |
2.0 |
67% |
|
$9.80 |
$979.81 |
$999.50 |
15th May |
UFC 262 |
23.13 |
7.1 |
31% |
|
$10.00 |
$999.50 |
$1,070.52 |
21st May |
Bellator 259 |
6 |
-6.0 |
-100% |
|
$10.71 |
$1,070.52 |
$1,006.29 |
22nd May |
Invicta 44 |
9 |
2.0 |
23% |
|
$10.06 |
$1,006.29 |
$1,026.82 |
22nd May |
UFC FN |
15 |
-3.1 |
-21% |
|
$10.27 |
$1,026.82 |
$994.78 |
5th Jun |
KSW 61 |
3 |
2.2 |
75% |
|
$9.95 |
$994.78 |
$1,017.17 |
5th Jun |
UFC FN |
21 |
9.9 |
47% |
|
$10.17 |
$1,017.17 |
$1,117.87 |
10th Jun |
PFL 2021: Week 4 |
12 |
-3.4 |
-29% |
|
$11.18 |
$1,117.87 |
$1,079.64 |
11th Jun |
Bellator 260 |
12 |
3.4 |
29% |
|
$10.80 |
$1,079.64 |
$1,116.88 |
12th Jun |
UFC 263 |
21 |
-7.3 |
-35% |
|
$11.17 |
$1,116.88 |
$1,034.79 |
17th Jun |
PFL 2021: Week 5 |
12 |
5.5 |
46% |
|
$10.35 |
$1,034.79 |
$1,091.60 |
19th Jun |
UFC FN |
21 |
-9.2 |
-44% |
|
$10.92 |
$1,091.60 |
$991.07 |
25th Jun |
PFL 2021: Week 6 |
3 |
1.3 |
43% |
|
$9.91 |
$991.07 |
$1,003.85 |
26th Jun |
UFC FN |
12 |
8.8 |
73% |
|
$10.04 |
$1,003.85 |
$1,091.79 |
10th Jul |
UFC 264 |
18 |
-5.1 |
-28% |
|
$10.92 |
$1,091.79 |
$1,036.11 |
17th Jul |
UFC FN |
6 |
2.7 |
45% |
|
$10.36 |
$1,036.11 |
$1,064.08 |
24th Jul |
UFC FN |
18 |
-6.9 |
-38% |
|
$10.64 |
$1,064.08 |
$990.66 |
25th Jul |
Fury FC 48 |
3 |
1.7 |
57% |
|
$9.91 |
$990.66 |
$1,007.60 |
31st Jul |
UFC FN |
6 |
-1.3 |
-22% |
|
$10.08 |
$1,007.60 |
$994.30 |
31st Jul |
Bellator 263 |
3 |
2.6 |
85% |
|
$9.94 |
$994.30 |
$1,019.65 |
7th Aug |
UFC 265 |
3 |
-3.0 |
-100% |
|
$10.20 |
$1,019.65 |
$989.07 |
13th Aug |
PFL 2021 #7: Playoffs |
9 |
-1.2 |
-13% |
|
$9.89 |
$989.07 |
$977.20 |
13th Aug |
Bellator 264 |
9 |
-4.9 |
-55% |
|
$9.77 |
$977.20 |
$929.12 |
19th Aug |
PFL 2021 #8: Playoffs |
19 |
-3.8 |
-20% |
|
$9.29 |
$929.12 |
$893.63 |
27th Aug |
PFL 2021 #9: Playoffs |
11 |
7.3 |
66% |
|
$8.94 |
$893.63 |
$958.77 |
1st Sep |
DWCS 2021: Week 1 |
6 |
4.9 |
82% |
|
$9.59 |
$958.77 |
$1,005.94 |
4th Sep |
UFC FN |
6 |
1.5 |
25% |
|
$10.06 |
$1,005.94 |
$1,021.03 |
18th Sep |
UFC FN |
3 |
2.8 |
93% |
|
$10.21 |
$1,021.03 |
$1,049.52 |
18th Sep |
Bellator 266: Davis vs. Romero |
5 |
4.1 |
82% |
|
$10.50 |
$1,049.52 |
$1,092.55 |
24th Sep |
ACA 129 |
3 |
-3.0 |
-100% |
|
$10.93 |
$1,092.55 |
$1,059.77 |
25th Sep |
UFC 266 |
3 |
2.2 |
74% |
|
$10.60 |
$1,059.77 |
$1,083.30 |
28th Sep |
DWCS 2021: Week 5 |
1 |
0.6 |
61% |
|
$10.83 |
$1,083.30 |
$1,089.91 |
2nd Oct |
UFC FN |
3 |
6.8 |
225% |
|
$10.90 |
$1,089.91 |
$1,163.48 |
4th Oct |
ACA 130 |
3 |
2.6 |
85% |
|
$11.63 |
$1,163.48 |
$1,193.15 |
5th Oct |
DWCS 2021: Week 6 |
3 |
3.4 |
115% |
|
$11.93 |
$1,193.15 |
$1,234.31 |
9th Oct |
UFC FN |
3 |
0.8 |
25% |
|
$12.34 |
$1,234.31 |
$1,243.57 |
12th Oct |
DWCS 2021: Week 7 |
3 |
1.3 |
44% |
|
$12.44 |
$1,243.57 |
$1,259.98 |
16th Oct |
UFC FN |
3 |
-3.0 |
-100% |
|
$12.60 |
$1,259.98 |
$1,222.18 |
16th Oct |
Bellator 268 |
3 |
1.1 |
36% |
|
$12.22 |
$1,222.18 |
$1,235.38 |
19th Oct |
DWCS 2021: Week 8 |
9 |
-4.7 |
-52% |
|
$12.35 |
$1,235.38 |
$1,177.57 |
27th Oct |
PFL 2021 #10: Championships |
3 |
12.0 |
400% |
|
$11.78 |
$1,177.57 |
$1,318.88 |
6th Nov |
UFC 268 |
3 |
1.3 |
43% |
|
$13.19 |
$1,318.88 |
$1,335.89 |
12th Nov |
Bellator 271 |
3 |
1.7 |
55% |
|
$13.36 |
$1,335.89 |
$1,357.93 |
13th Nov |
UFC FN |
3 |
1.3 |
43% |
|
$13.58 |
$1,357.93 |
$1,375.45 |
20th Nov |
UFC FN |
3 |
2.5 |
83% |
|
$13.75 |
$1,375.45 |
$1,409.70 |
3rd Dec |
Bellator 272 |
3 |
3.5 |
118% |
|
$14.10 |
$1,409.70 |
$1,459.60 |
4th Dec |
UFC FN |
3 |
4.2 |
140% |
|
$14.60 |
$1,459.60 |
$1,520.90 |
11th Dec |
UFC 269 |
3 |
-3.0 |
-100% |
|
$15.21 |
$1,520.90 |
$1,475.28 |
17th Dec |
CFFC 104 |
3 |
1.5 |
50% |
|
$14.75 |
$1,475.28 |
$1,497.40 |
18th Dec |
UFC FN |
6 |
-1.3 |
-21% |
|
$14.97 |
$1,497.40 |
$1,478.09 |
30th Dec |
Oktagon 30 |
3 |
-3.0 |
-100% |
|
$14.78 |
$1,478.09 |
$1,433.75 |
15th Jan |
KSW 66 |
3 |
2.0 |
67% |
|
$14.34 |
$1,433.75 |
$1,462.56 |
22nd Jan |
UFC 270 |
3 |
-3.0 |
-100% |
|
$14.63 |
$1,462.56 |
$1,418.69 |
28th Jan |
EFC 44 |
3 |
4.9 |
163% |
|
$14.19 |
$1,418.69 |
$1,488.06 |
29th Jan |
Bellator 273 |
3 |
0.4 |
12% |
|
$14.88 |
$1,488.06 |
$1,493.42 |
5th Feb |
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland |
6 |
5.1 |
85% |
|
$14.93 |
$1,493.42 |
$1,570.03 |
11th Feb |
LFA 124 |
3 |
2.1 |
71% |
|
$15.70 |
$1,570.03 |
$1,603.47 |
12th Feb |
UFC 271 |
3 |
1.5 |
50% |
|
$16.03 |
$1,603.47 |
$1,627.52 |
18th Feb |
PFL Challenger Series 1 |
3 |
2.1 |
70% |
|
$16.28 |
$1,627.52 |
$1,661.70 |
19th Feb |
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill |
3 |
3.8 |
125% |
|
$16.62 |
$1,661.70 |
$1,724.01 |
19th Feb |
Bellator 274 |
3 |
1.0 |
34% |
|
$17.24 |
$1,724.01 |
$1,741.60 |
12th Mar |
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev |
6 |
5.5 |
92% |
|
$17.42 |
$1,741.60 |
$1,837.21 |
19th Mar |
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall |
6 |
0.0 |
0% |
|
$18.37 |
$1,837.21 |
$1,837.21 |
19th Mar |
KSW 68 |
3 |
1.5 |
50% |
|
$18.37 |
$1,837.21 |
$1,864.77 |
25th Mar |
PFL Challenger Series 6 |
3 |
-3.0 |
-100% |
|
$18.65 |
$1,864.77 |
$1,808.83 |
15th Apr |
Bellator 277 |
6 |
-2.5 |
-41% |
|
$18.09 |
$1,808.83 |
$1,764.43 |
30th Jul |
UFC 277 |
3 |
3.1 |
102% |
|
$17.64 |
$1,764.43 |
$1,818.42 |
26th Aug |
CFFC 112 |
3 |
1.7 |
57% |
|
$18.18 |
$1,818.42 |
$1,849.52 |
27th Aug |
LFA 140 |
3 |
-3.0 |
-100% |
|
$18.50 |
$1,849.52 |
$1,794.03 |
27th Aug |
One FC on Prime 1 |
3 |
3.2 |
105% |
|
$17.94 |
$1,794.03 |
$1,850.54 |
10th Sep |
UFC 279 |
3 |
2.0 |
67% |
|
$18.51 |
$1,850.54 |
$1,887.74 |
23rd Sep |
Cage Warriors 143 |
3 |
4.2 |
140% |
|
$18.88 |
$1,887.74 |
$1,967.02 |
14th Oct |
KSW 75 |
6 |
4.0 |
66% |
|
$19.67 |
$1,967.02 |
$2,044.92 |
15th Oct |
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo |
3 |
1.7 |
58% |
|
$20.45 |
$2,044.92 |
$2,080.50 |
22nd Oct |
UFC 280 |
12 |
10.6 |
88% |
|
$20.80 |
$2,080.50 |
$2,300.20 |
29th Oct |
Bellator 287 |
3 |
3.3 |
110% |
|
$23.00 |
$2,300.20 |
$2,376.11 |
29th Oct |
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen |
3 |
-3.0 |
-100% |
|
$23.76 |
$2,376.11 |
$2,304.83 |
15th Apr |
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen |
3 |
3.0 |
100% |
|
$23.05 |
$2,304.83 |
$2,373.97 |
22nd Apr |
KSW 81 |
3 |
3.4 |
115% |
|
$23.74 |
$2,373.97 |
$2,455.87 |
29th Apr |
Rizin Landmark 5 |
3 |
2.4 |
80% |
|
$24.56 |
$2,455.87 |
$2,514.81 |
19th Aug |
KSW 85 |
3 |
-3.0 |
-100% |
|
$25.15 |
$2,514.81 |
$2,439.37 |
ROI % from starting bank balance: 143.94% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now. |
BeatingThe Closing Line: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks) |
Last 20 Wins
|
Date |
Straight Pick |
Opponent |
Odds |
Bet |
Result |
|
|
1. |
Apr '23 |
Yutaka Saito |
Ren Hiramoto |
1.80 |
3 |
Split Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
2. |
Apr '23 |
Filip Stawowy |
Marek Samociuk |
2.15 |
3 |
Sub, R2 (4:39) |
|
|
3. |
Apr '23 |
Ion Cutelaba |
Tanner Boser |
2.00 |
3 |
TKO, R1 (2:5) |
|
|
4. |
Oct '22 |
Nicolo Solli |
Bourama Camara |
2.10 |
3 |
Split Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
5. |
Oct '22 |
Islam Makhachev |
Charles Oliveira |
1.62 |
3 |
Sub, R2 (3:16) |
|
|
6. |
Oct '22 |
Karol Rosa |
Lina Lansberg |
1.40 |
3 |
Split Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
7. |
Oct '22 |
Daniel Omielanczuk |
Michal Martinek |
1.75 |
3 |
Split Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
8. |
Oct '22 |
Robert Ruchala |
Damian Stasiak |
1.57 |
3 |
Split Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
9. |
Oct '22 |
Jonathan Martinez |
Cub Swanson |
1.58 |
3 |
TKO, R2 (4:19) |
|
|
10. |
Sep '22 |
Erick Sanchez |
James Lynch |
2.40 |
3 |
TKO, R1 (2:31) |
|
|
11. |
Sep '22 |
Irene Aldana |
Macy Chiasson |
1.67 |
3 |
TKO, R3 (2:21) |
|
|
12. |
Aug '22 |
Zebaztian Kadestam |
Iuri Lapicus |
2.05 |
3 |
TKO, R1 (0:57) |
|
|
13. |
Aug '22 |
Jose Perez |
Frank Wells |
1.57 |
3 |
Sub, R3 (3:53) |
|
|
14. |
Oct '22 |
Sean O'Malley |
Petr Yan |
4.50 |
3 |
Split Decision (3 rounds) |
|
|
15. |
Jul '22 |
Sergey Pavlovich |
Derrick Lewis |
2.02 |
3 |
TKO, R1 (0:55) |
|
|
16. |
Apr '22 |
Tyrell Fortune |
Rakim Cleveland |
1.18 |
3 |
TKO, R1 (1:38) |
|
|
17. |
Mar '22 |
Salahdine Parnasse |
Daniel Rutkowski |
1.50 |
3 |
Sub, R4 (1:7) |
|
|
18. |
Mar '22 |
Tom Aspinall |
Alexander Volkov |
2.00 |
3 |
Sub, R1 (3:45) |
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19. |
Mar '22 |
Damon Jackson |
Kamuela Kirk |
2.09 |
3 |
Sub, R2 (4:42) |
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20. |
Mar '22 |
Alex Pereira |
Bruno Silva |
1.74 |
3 |
U Decision (3 rounds) |
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Last 20 Losses
* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision. |
BeatingThe Closing Line: Progress Chart |
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