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MMA Handicapper Stats: Alan Moraes

Alan Moraes (Leonel)

MMA MHandicapper - Alan Moraes

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	71 (32%)	Right	35 (45%)	Right	24 (24%)	Right	12 (27%)
Wrong	151 (68%)	Wrong	43 (55%)	Wrong	76 (76%)	Wrong	32 (73%)
Avg Odds	2.33	Avg Odds	1.77	Avg Odds	2.95	Avg Odds	2.54
Units Bet	476.0	Units Bet	262.0	Units Bet	131.1	Units Bet	82.8
Avg Bet	2.14	Avg Bet	3.36	Avg Bet	1.31	Avg Bet	1.88
Units Profit	-116.10	Units Profit	-55.69	Units Profit	-35.39	Units Profit	-25.02
ROI %	-24%	ROI %	-21%	ROI %	-27%	ROI %	-30%

Alan Moraes: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
28th Aug '21	UFC FN	12.83	-6.1	-48%	-3.8 / 6 (-63%)	-0.3 / 4.83 (-7%)	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
21st Aug '21	UFC FN	16.99	-12.2	-72%	-3.5 / 5 (-69%)	-9.1 / 11.16 (-82%)	0.3 / 0.83 (41%)
7th Aug '21	UFC 265	11.49	2.1	18%	0.7 / 9 (8%)	0.7 / 1.49 (47%)	0.7 / 1 (70%)
31st Jul '21	UFC FN	10.83	-4.5	-42%	0.1 / 2.5 (3%)	-3.6 / 7.33 (-49%)	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
24th Jul '21	UFC FN	12.1	-6.0	-50%	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)	0.1 / 6 (1%)	-1.1 / 1.1 (-100%)
17th Jul '21	UFC FN	13.82	-0.5	-3%	1.8 / 3 (61%)	-4.5 / 6.15 (-72%)	2.2 / 4.67 (46%)
10th Jul '21	UFC 264	9.5	-4.4	-46%	-5.5 / 5.5 (-100%)	1.1 / 4 (28%)
26th Jun '21	UFC FN	12.34	-0.1	-1%	0.0 / 6.5 (0%)	0.3 / 5.34 (7%)	-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)
19th Jun '21	UFC FN	9.5	-4.9	-52%	1.6 / 3 (53%)	-6.5 / 6.5 (-100%)
12th Jun '21	UFC 263	9.32	-3.4	-36%	-0.6 / 6.5 (-9%)	-1.7 / 1.66 (-100%)	-1.2 / 1.16 (-100%)
5th Jun '21	UFC FN	5.4	-3.0	-56%	-2.6 / 5 (-52%)	-0.3 / 0.3 (-100%)	-0.1 / 0.1 (-100%)
22nd May '21	UFC FN	25.9	-16.4	-63%	-5.5 / 15 (-37%)	-5.5 / 5.5 (-100%)	-5.4 / 5.4 (-100%)
15th May '21	UFC 262	22.15	-11.6	-53%	-4.5 / 15 (-30%)	-6.8 / 6.75 (-100%)	-0.4 / 0.4 (-100%)
8th May '21	UFC FN	18.9	-8.4	-44%	-4.5 / 15 (-30%)	-3.5 / 3.5 (-100%)	-0.4 / 0.4 (-100%)
1st May '21	UFC FN	30.15	9.7	32%	-0.2 / 15 (-1%)	4.0 / 8.25 (49%)	5.8 / 6.9 (84%)
24th Apr '21	UFC 261	22.9	-12.0	-53%	-7.1 / 15 (-48%)	1.0 / 2 (50%)	-5.9 / 5.9 (-100%)
17th Apr '21	UFC FN	17.7	-12.2	-69%	-10.0 / 10 (-100%)	-4.3 / 4.3 (-100%)	2.1 / 3.4 (63%)
28th Mar '21	UFC 260	24.75	-6.4	-26%	-8.0 / 15 (-53%)	-1.4 / 6.25 (-22%)	3.0 / 3.5 (84%)
20th Mar '21	UFC Fight Night 188	22.5	-5.5	-24%	-3.5 / 15 (-23%)	1.5 / 4 (37%)	-3.5 / 3.5 (-100%)
13th Mar '21	UFC Fight Night 187	28.08	-7.0	-25%	2.7 / 15 (18%)	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)	-8.8 / 12.08 (-72%)
6th Mar '21	UFC 259	14	1.7	12%			1.7 / 14 (12%)
28th Feb '21	UFC Fight Night 186	19.5	14.9	76%	15.0 / 15 (100%)	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)	1.9 / 2.5 (74%)
20th Feb '21	UFC Fight Night 185	34.5	-0.0	-0%	-1.2 / 25 (-5%)	1.2 / 9.5 (13%)
13th Feb '21	UFC 258	22	-5.0	-23%	-2.8 / 10 (-28%)	2.8 / 7 (41%)	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
6th Feb '21	UFC FN	19	4.1	22%		4.1 / 19 (22%)
24th Jan '21	UFC 257	34.5	-18.9	-55%	-9.4 / 25 (-37%)	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)	-7.5 / 7.5 (-100%)

Winning Events: 5 (19%)
Losing Events: 21 (81%)

Average Staked Per Event: 18.49 units
Most Staked On One Event: 34.50 units
Best Event: 14.85 units
Worst Event: -18.85 units
Average Event: -4.47 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 2, Units: 16.58
Max Losing Streak: Events: 11, Units: -63.27

Alan Moraes: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2021	480.65	-116.1	-24%	-55.7 / 262 (-21%)		-25.0 / 82.84 (-30%)	5 / 21 (19%)	-4.47

Alan Moraes: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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Alan Moraes: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	480.65	-116.1	-24%	-55.7 / 262 (-21%)	-35.4 / 135.81 (-26%)	-25.0 / 82.84 (-30%)

Alan Moraes: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	24 (30%)	14	58 %	80.50	-14.73	-0.61	-18%
Slight Favorites	27 (34%)	14	52 %	82.50	-4.27	-0.16	-5%
Slight Underdogs	27 (34%)	8	30 %	89.00	-26.70	-0.99	-30%
Big Underdogs	2 (3%)	0	0 %	10.00	-10.00	-5.00	-100%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	13 (16%)	5	38 %	38.00	-14.77	-1.14	-39%
Co-Main Event	13 (16%)	4	31 %	41.00	-19.75	-1.52	-48%
Position 3-5	16 (20%)	8	50 %	52.50	-9.64	-0.60	-18%
6+ (Undercard)	38 (48%)	19	50 %	130.50	-11.53	-0.30	-9%

Alan Moraes: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	13 (16%)	9	69 %	36.00	-2.73	-0.21	-8%
Light Heavy	2 (3%)		0 %	10.00	-10.00	-5.00	-100%
Middleweight	14 (18%)	3	21 %	52.50	-27.80	-1.99	-53%
Welterweight	10 (13%)	5	50 %	29.00	-5.43	-0.54	-19%
Lightweight	8 (10%)	3	38 %	26.00	-8.64	-1.08	-33%
Featherweight	11 (14%)	5	45 %	36.00	-8.91	-0.81	-25%
Bantamweight	10 (13%)	5	50 %	29.50	10.98	1.10	37%
Flyweight	4 (5%)	3	75 %	13.00	9.78	2.45	75%

Women's Fights	8 (10%)	3	38 %	30.00	-12.95	-1.62	-43%
Bantamweight	1 (1%)	1	100 %	3.00	1.83	1.83	61%
Flyweight	4 (5%)	1	25 %	20.00	-9.50	-2.37	-47%
Strawweight	3 (4%)	1	33 %	7.00	-5.28	-1.76	-75%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	114 (77%)	75	66 %
Slight Favorites	21 (14%)	9	43 %
Slight Underdogs	12 (8%)	4	33 %
Big Underdogs	1 (1%)	1	100 %
	148	89	60 %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	12 (12%)	5	42 %
50-65%	12 (12%)	3	25 %
35-50%	17 (17%)	6	35 %
<35% chance	61 (60%)	10	16 %
	102	24	24 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	6 (6%)	3	50 %	1.55	2.00	1.25	-0.8 (-13%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	22 (22%)	8	36 %	1.92	8.00	1.25	-4.0 (-18%)
Does not go to Decision	4 (4%)	1	25 %	1.65	2.20	1.36	-2.6 (-66%)
X Wins by KO	30 (29%)	7	23 %	3.33	15.00	1.66	0.1 (0%)
X Wins by Sub	13 (13%)	1	8 %	5.59	13.00	3.20	-5.0 (-38%)
X Wins by Decision	4 (4%)	0	0 %	3.79	5.00	3.40	-4.0 (-100%)
X Wins in Round X	8 (8%)	0	0 %	5.45	17.00	2.87	-8.0 (-100%)
Others	15 (15%)	4	27 %	3.83	9.00	1.53	-3.6 (-24%)
	102	24	24 %	2.87			-27.9 (-27%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Alan Moraes's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
24th Jan	UFC 257	34.5	-18.9	-55%		$10.00	$1,000.00	$811.50
6th Feb	UFC FN	19	4.1	22%		$8.11	$811.50	$844.77
13th Feb	UFC 258	22	-5.0	-23%		$8.45	$844.77	$802.87
20th Feb	UFC Fight Night 185	34.5	-0.0	-0%		$8.03	$802.87	$802.79
28th Feb	UFC Fight Night 186	19.5	14.9	76%		$8.03	$802.79	$922.02
6th Mar	UFC 259	14	1.7	12%		$9.22	$922.02	$937.93
13th Mar	UFC Fight Night 187	28.08	-7.0	-25%		$9.38	$937.93	$872.23
20th Mar	UFC Fight Night 188	22.5	-5.5	-24%		$8.72	$872.23	$824.26
28th Mar	UFC 260	24.75	-6.4	-26%		$8.24	$824.26	$771.31
17th Apr	UFC FN	17.7	-12.2	-69%		$7.71	$771.31	$677.59
24th Apr	UFC 261	22.9	-12.0	-53%		$6.78	$677.59	$595.94
1st May	UFC FN	30.15	9.7	32%		$5.96	$595.94	$653.88
8th May	UFC FN	18.9	-8.4	-44%		$6.54	$653.88	$598.96
15th May	UFC 262	22.15	-11.6	-53%		$5.99	$598.96	$529.18
22nd May	UFC FN	25.9	-16.4	-63%		$5.29	$529.18	$442.39
5th Jun	UFC FN	5.4	-3.0	-56%		$4.42	$442.39	$429.12
12th Jun	UFC 263	9.32	-3.4	-36%		$4.29	$429.12	$414.57
19th Jun	UFC FN	9.5	-4.9	-52%		$4.15	$414.57	$394.26
26th Jun	UFC FN	12.34	-0.1	-1%		$3.94	$394.26	$393.69
10th Jul	UFC 264	9.5	-4.4	-46%		$3.94	$393.69	$376.36
17th Jul	UFC FN	13.82	-0.5	-3%		$3.76	$376.36	$374.61
24th Jul	UFC FN	12.1	-6.0	-50%		$3.75	$374.61	$352.06
31st Jul	UFC FN	10.83	-4.5	-42%		$3.52	$352.06	$336.22
7th Aug	UFC 265	11.49	2.1	18%		$3.36	$336.22	$343.20
21st Aug	UFC FN	16.99	-12.2	-72%		$3.43	$343.20	$301.22
28th Aug	UFC FN	12.83	-6.1	-48%		$3.01	$301.22	$282.76

ROI % from starting bank balance: -71.72% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Alan Moraes: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Aug '21	Daniel Rodriguez	Kevin Lee	2.20	1	U Decision (3 rounds)
2.	Aug '21	Alexandre Pantoja	Brandon Royval	1.53	1	Sub, R2 (1:46)
3.	Aug '21	Ciryl Gane	Derrick Lewis	1.28	1.5	TKO, R3 (4:11)
4.	Aug '21	Vicente Luque	Michael Chiesa	1.90	1	Sub, R1 (3:25)
5.	Aug '21	Ciryl Gane	Derrick Lewis	1.28	2.5	TKO, R3 (4:11)
6.	Aug '21	Rafael Fiziev	Bobby Green	1.33	2	U Decision (3 rounds)
7.	Jul '21	Melsik Bagdasaryan	Collin Anglin	1.72	1.5	TKO, R2 (1:50)
8.	Jul '21	Miesha Tate	Marion Reneau	1.61	3	TKO, R3 (1:53)
9.	Jun '21	Ciryl Gane	Alexander Volkov	1.61	1	U Decision (5 rounds)
10.	Jun '21	Tanner Boser	Ovince St Preux	1.57	1	TKO, R2 (2:31)
11.	Jun '21	Shavkat Rakhmonov	Michel Prazeres	1.33	2.5	Sub, R2 (2:10)
12.	Jun '21	Marlon Vera	Davey Grant	1.44	2	U Decision (3 rounds)
13.	Jun '21	Virna Jandiroba	Kanako Murata	1.72	1	TKO, R2 (5:0)
14.	Jun '21	Brad Riddell	Drew Dober	2.20	1	U Decision (3 rounds)
15.	Jun '21	Movsar Evloev	Hakeem Dawodu	1.44	1.5	U Decision (3 rounds)
16.	Jun '21	Carlos Felipe	Jake Collier	1.57	1	Split Decision (3 rounds)
17.	Jun '21	Ilir Latifi	Tanner Boser	2.40	1	Split Decision (3 rounds)
18.	May '21	Rob Font	Cody Garbrandt	1.90	5	U Decision (5 rounds)
19.	May '21	Andrea Lee	Antonina Shevchenko	2.10	5	Sub, R2 (4:52)
20.	May '21	Jun Yong Park	Tafon Nchukwi	2.10	5	Split Decision (3 rounds)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Aug '21	Edson Barboza	Giga Chikadze	1.83	1	TKO, R3 (1:44)	No
2.	Aug '21	Alessio Di Chirico	Abdul Razak Alhassan	1.40	3	TKO, R1 (0:17)	No
3.	Aug '21	Sam Alvey	Wellington Turman	2.05	1	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
4.	Aug '21	Kelvin Gastelum	Jared Cannonier	2.30	2	U Decision (5 rounds)	No
5.	Aug '21	Chase Sherman	Parker Porter	1.53	2	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
6.	Aug '21	Pedro Munhoz	Jose Aldo	1.95	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
7.	Aug '21	Casey Kenney	Yadong Song	1.83	1	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
8.	Jul '21	Gloria de Paula	Cheyanne Buys	2.40	1	TKO, R1 (1:0)	No
9.	Jul '21	Cory Sandhagen	T.J. Dillashaw	1.44	2	Split Decision (5 rounds)	No
10.	Jul '21	Kyler Phillips	Raulian Paiva	1.33	1.5	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
11.	Jul '21	Punahele Soriano	Brendan Allen	1.80	0.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
12.	Jul '21	Punahele Soriano	Brendan Allen	1.80	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
13.	Jul '21	Niko Price	Michel Pereira	2.40	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
14.	Jul '21	Ryan Hall	Ilia Topuria	2.75	1	TKO, R1 (4:47)	No
15.	Jul '21	Stephen Thompson	Gilbert Burns	1.57	1.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
16.	Jul '21	Conor McGregor	Dustin Poirier	2.00	2	TKO, R1 (5:0)	No
17.	Jun '21	Raoni Barcelos	Timur Valiev	1.44	2	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
18.	Jun '21	Deiveson Figueiredo	Brandon Moreno	1.50	2	Sub, R3 (2:26)	No
19.	Jun '21	Luigi Vendramini	Fares Ziam	2.10	1	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
20.	Jun '21	Augusto Sakai	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	2.00	1	TKO, R1 (4:59)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Alan Moraes: Progress Chart

Chart

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