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MMA Handicapper Stats: Von Flue Choke

Von Flue Choke (MMAjapon)

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	38 (39%)	Right	12 (44%)	Right	14 (33%)	Right	12 (44%)
Wrong	59 (61%)	Wrong	15 (56%)	Wrong	29 (67%)	Wrong	15 (56%)
Avg Odds	2.60	Avg Odds	2.02	Avg Odds	3.80	Avg Odds	2.13
Units Bet	134.6	Units Bet	55.0	Units Bet	36.6	Units Bet	43.0
Avg Bet	1.39	Avg Bet	2.04	Avg Bet	0.85	Avg Bet	1.59
Units Profit	6.76	Units Profit	2.05	Units Profit	11.88	Units Profit	-7.16
ROI %	5%	ROI %	4%	ROI %	32%	ROI %	-17%

Von Flue Choke: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
28th Feb '21	UFC Fight Night 186	4	-0.9	-21%	1.1 / 2 (57%)	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
20th Feb '21	UFC Fight Night 185	18.3	-5.9	-32%	-0.6 / 10.5 (-5%)	0.7 / 1.8 (39%)	-6.0 / 6 (-100%)
14th Feb '21	UFC 258	3	3.0	102%		3.0 / 3 (102%)
6th Feb '21	UFC FN	7.5	5.0	67%	-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)	3.0 / 2.5 (120%)	2.5 / 4.5 (56%)
24th Jan '21	UFC 257	8.25	1.3	16%	-1.5 / 1.5 (-100%)	4.8 / 1.75 (271%)	-1.9 / 5 (-39%)
20th Jan '21	UFC on ESPN 20	7.5	-0.2	-3%	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)	-2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)	3.3 / 4 (82%)
16th Jan '21	UFC FN	6	4.4	73%	0.9 / 1 (91%)	1.6 / 2 (79%)	1.9 / 3 (63%)
19th Dec '20	UFC Vegas 17	7	1.4	20%	-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)	-1.5 / 1.5 (-100%)	3.4 / 5 (68%)
13th Dec '20	UFC 256	2.5	-2.5	-100%		-1.0 / 1 (-100%)	-1.5 / 1.5 (-100%)
6th Dec '20	UFC Vegas 16	7.5	2.1	29%		4.1 / 5.5 (75%)	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
29th Nov '20	UFC Vegas 15	12	-2.1	-17%	-1.3 / 6 (-21%)	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)	1.2 / 4 (30%)
21st Nov '20	UFC 255	21	-2.8	-13%	4.0 / 10 (40%)	-1.8 / 6 (-30%)	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
21st Nov '20	Rizin 25	8	-1.4	-17%	1.7 / 5 (33%)		-3.0 / 3 (-100%)
21st Nov '20	LFA 95	3	0.7	22%		0.7 / 3 (22%)
19th Nov '20	Bellator 253	6	0.1	2%	0.1 / 6 (2%)
18th Nov '20	DWCS 36	11	6.4	58%	1.6 / 9 (18%)	4.8 / 2 (240%)
4th Oct '20	UFC FN - Holm vs Aldana	2	-2.0	-100%	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)

Winning Events: 9 (53%)
Losing Events: 8 (47%)

Average Staked Per Event: 7.91 units
Most Staked On One Event: 21.00 units
Best Event: 6.40 units
Worst Event: -5.86 units
Average Event: 0.40 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 3, Units: 9.41
Max Losing Streak: Events: 3, Units: -6.72

Von Flue Choke: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2021	54.55	6.8	12%	-1.5 / 16.5 (-9%)	8.6 / 15.55 (55%)	-0.3 / 22.5 (-1%)	4 / 3 (57%)	0.97
2020	80	-0.0	-0%	3.6 / 38.5 (9%)	3.3 / 21 (16%)	-6.9 / 20.5 (-34%)	5 / 5 (50%)	-0.00

Von Flue Choke: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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Von Flue Choke: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	106.55	1.0	1%	-1.3 / 35 (-4%)	6.4 / 31.55 (20%)	-4.2 / 40 (-10%)
Bellator	6	0.1	2%	0.1 / 6 (2%)
Other	22	5.7	26%	3.2 / 14 (23%)	5.5 / 5 (109%)	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)

Von Flue Choke: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	6 (22%)	5	83 %	23.50	3.74	0.62	16%
Slight Favorites	6 (22%)	5	83 %	16.00	5.21	0.87	33%
Slight Underdogs	7 (26%)	1	14 %	9.00	-4.60	-0.66	-51%
Big Underdogs	8 (30%)	1	13 %	6.50	-2.30	-0.29	-35%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	3 (11%)	1	33 %	7.00	-0.60	-0.20	-9%
Co-Main Event	3 (11%)	1	33 %	2.50	1.70	0.57	68%
Position 3-5	7 (26%)	4	57 %	21.00	0.74	0.11	4%
6+ (Undercard)	14 (52%)	6	43 %	24.50	0.21	0.02	1%

Von Flue Choke: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	3 (11%)	2	67 %	4.50	3.20	1.07	71%
Light Heavy	1 (4%)	1	100 %	3.00	1.59	1.59	53%
Middleweight	3 (11%)		0 %	3.00	-3.00	-1.00	-100%
Welterweight	3 (11%)	2	67 %	6.00	3.41	1.14	57%
Lightweight	3 (11%)		0 %	2.00	-2.00	-0.67	-100%
Featherweight	4 (15%)	1	25 %	12.00	-5.90	-1.47	-49%
Bantamweight	2 (7%)	1	50 %	2.50	0.64	0.32	26%
Flyweight	3 (11%)	2	67 %	11.00	2.05	0.68	19%

Women's Fights	5 (19%)	3	60 %	11.00	2.06	0.41	19%
Bantamweight	2 (7%)	2	100 %	4.00	2.62	1.31	66%
Flyweight	1 (4%)	1	100 %	4.00	2.44	2.44	61%
Strawweight	2 (7%)		0 %	3.00	-3.00	-1.50	-100%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	20 (87%)	14	70 %
Slight Favorites	3 (13%)	1	33 %
Slight Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %
Big Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %
	23	15	65 %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	27 (33%)	21	78 %
50-65%	12 (15%)	7	58 %
35-50%	11 (13%)	4	36 %
<35% chance	32 (39%)	10	31 %
	82	42	51 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	18 (22%)	15	83 %	1.40	1.80	1.14	3.0 (17%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	9 (11%)	7	78 %	1.71	3.40	1.40	4.3 (48%)
Goes to Decision	7 (9%)	5	71 %	1.54	2.20	1.28	0.5 (8%)
Does not go to Decision	8 (10%)	5	63 %	1.35	2.37	1.17	-0.6 (-8%)
X Wins by KO	8 (10%)	3	38 %	3.64	13.00	2.30	12.3 (154%)
X Wins by Sub	8 (10%)	1	13 %	5.05	9.50	3.25	0.5 (6%)
X Wins by Decision	9 (11%)	3	33 %	3.63	6.50	2.50	4.4 (49%)
X Wins Inside Distance	6 (7%)	2	33 %	2.62	4.00	1.61	1.0 (17%)
X Wins in Round X	7 (9%)	1	14 %	4.90	29.00	2.00	6.0 (86%)
Others	2 (2%)	0	0 %	5.02	11.00	3.25	-2.0 (-100%)
	82	42	51 %	2.11			29.5 (36%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Von Flue Choke's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
4th Oct	UFC FN - Holm vs Aldana	2	-2.0	-100%	$5	$10.00	$1,000.00	$975.00
18th Nov	DWCS 36	11	6.4	58%		$9.75	$975.00	$1,037.40
19th Nov	Bellator 253	6	0.1	2%		$10.37	$1,037.40	$1,038.44
21st Nov	LFA 95	3	0.7	22%		$10.38	$1,038.44	$1,045.29
21st Nov	Rizin 25	8	-1.4	-17%		$10.45	$1,045.29	$1,031.18
21st Nov	UFC 255	21	-2.8	-13%		$10.31	$1,031.18	$1,002.31
29th Nov	UFC Vegas 15	12	-2.1	-17%		$10.02	$1,002.31	$981.50
6th Dec	UFC Vegas 16	7.5	2.1	29%		$9.81	$981.50	$1,002.50
13th Dec	UFC 256	2.5	-2.5	-100%		$10.03	$1,002.50	$977.44
19th Dec	UFC Vegas 17	7	1.4	20%		$9.77	$977.44	$990.89
16th Jan	UFC FN	6	4.4	73%		$9.91	$990.89	$1,034.11
20th Jan	UFC on ESPN 20	7.5	-0.2	-3%		$10.34	$1,034.11	$1,031.65
24th Jan	UFC 257	8.25	1.3	16%		$10.32	$1,031.65	$1,045.29
6th Feb	UFC FN	7.5	5.0	67%		$10.45	$1,045.29	$1,097.92
14th Feb	UFC 258	3	3.0	102%		$10.98	$1,097.92	$1,131.41
20th Feb	UFC Fight Night 185	18.3	-5.9	-32%		$11.31	$1,131.41	$1,065.11
28th Feb	UFC Fight Night 186	4	-0.9	-21%		$10.65	$1,065.11	$1,055.95

ROI % from starting bank balance: 5.59% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Von Flue Choke: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Feb '21	Ronnie Lawrence	Vince Cachero	1.57	2	TKO, R3 (2:38)
2.	Feb '21	Sergey Spivak	Jared Vanderaa	1.40	2.5	TKO, R2 (4:32)
3.	Feb '21	Casey O'Neill	Shana Dobson	1.61	4	TKO, R2 (3:41)
4.	Jan '21	Joselyne Edwards	Yanan Wu	1.91	1	U Decision (3 rounds)
5.	Nov '20	Gina Mazany	Rachael Ostovich	1.57	3	TKO, R3 (4:10)
6.	Nov '20	Paul Craig	Mauricio Rua	1.53	3	TKO, R2 (3:36)
7.	Nov '20	Tatsuki Saomoto	Daichi Kitakata	1.33	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
8.	Nov '20	Alan Jouban	Jared Gooden	1.67	3	U Decision (3 rounds)
9.	Nov '20	Tim Means	Mike Perry	2.20	2	U Decision (3 rounds)
10.	Nov '20	Jeremy Kennedy	Matt Bessette	1.22	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
11.	Nov '20	J.P. Buys	Jacob Silva	1.28	5	Sub, R1 (4:54)
12.	Nov '20	Nick Maximov	Oscar Ivan Cota	4.20	1	U Decision (3 rounds)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Feb '21	Nassourdine Imavov	Phil Hawes	2.00	1	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
2.	Feb '21	Danny Chavez	Jared Gordon	1.67	3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
3.	Feb '21	Frankie Edgar	Cory Sandhagen	4.20	0.5	TKO, R1 (0:28)	No
4.	Jan '21	Antonio Carlos Junior	Brad Tavares	2.00	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
5.	Jan '21	Matt Frevola	Arman Tsarukyan	5.50	0.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
6.	Jan '21	Mason Jones	Mike Davis	2.37	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
7.	Dec '20	Carlton Minus	Christos Giagos	3.50	0.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
8.	Nov '20	Spike Carlyle	Bill Algeo	1.53	3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
9.	Nov '20	Alex Perez	Deiveson Figueiredo	3.30	1	Sub, R1 (1:57)	No
10.	Nov '20	Jordan Wright	Joaquin Buckley	3.10	1	TKO, R2 (0:18)	No
11.	Nov '20	Darrion Caldwell	A.J. McKee	3.50	1	Sub, R1 (1:11)	No
12.	Nov '20	Oscar Ivan Cota	Nick Maximov	4.20	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
13.	Nov '20	Pauline Macias	Gloria de Paula	2.50	2	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
14.	Oct '20	Jinh Yu Frey	Loma Lookboonmee	2.00	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
15.	Oct '20	Jessin Ayari	Luigi Vendramini	2.00	1	TKO, R1 (1:12)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Von Flue Choke: Progress Chart

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