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MMA Handicapper Stats: mike stembridge

mike stembridge (drstoppage)

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	31 (52%)	Right	23 (56%)	Right	4 (40%)	Right	4 (44%)
Wrong	29 (48%)	Wrong	18 (44%)	Wrong	6 (60%)	Wrong	5 (56%)
Avg Odds	1.82	Avg Odds	1.72	Avg Odds	2.36	Avg Odds	1.83
Units Bet	172.0	Units Bet	133.0	Units Bet	13.0	Units Bet	26.0
Avg Bet	2.87	Avg Bet	3.24	Avg Bet	1.30	Avg Bet	2.89
Units Profit	-4.19	Units Profit	-0.73	Units Profit	-1.20	Units Profit	-2.25
ROI %	-2%	ROI %	-1%	ROI %	-9%	ROI %	-9%

mike stembridge: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
6th Nov '21	UFC 268	16	3.4	21%	1.9 / 9 (21%)	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)	3.4 / 5 (69%)
25th Sep '21	UFC 266	30	3.2	11%	3.2 / 30 (11%)
28th Aug '21	UFC FN	3	-3.0	-100%	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)
7th Aug '21	UFC 265	10.5	5.3	51%	4.4 / 10 (44%)	0.9 / 0.5 (175%)
10th Jul '21	UFC 264	24	6.8	29%	6.8 / 24 (29%)
15th May '21	UFC 262	9	-4.7	-52%	-4.7 / 9 (-52%)
8th Nov '20	UFC Vegas 13	9	-2.2	-25%	0.8 / 6 (13%)	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
26th Sep '20	UFC 253	15	-8.3	-55%	-5.3 / 12 (-44%)	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
19th Sep '20	UFC FN - Covington vs Woodley	6	3.3	55%	3.3 / 6 (55%)
12th Sep '20	UFC Fight Night 184	8	-0.1	-2%	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)	2.9 / 5 (57%)
5th Sep '20	UFC Fight Night 183	10	4.2	42%	1.3 / 7 (18%)	1.3 / 1 (130%)	1.6 / 2 (82%)
29th Aug '20	UFC Fight Night 182	6.5	-2.7	-41%	-4.0 / 4 (-100%)	-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)	1.8 / 2 (91%)
15th Aug '20	UFC 252	11	-6.0	-54%	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)	1.0 / 4 (26%)	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
8th Aug '20	UFC Vegas 6	5	2.5	51%	2.5 / 5 (51%)
1st Aug '20	UFC Vegas 5	9	-5.9	-66%	-4.0 / 4 (-100%)	1.1 / 2 (54%)	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)

Winning Events: 7 (47%)
Losing Events: 8 (53%)

Average Staked Per Event: 11.47 units
Most Staked On One Event: 30.00 units
Best Event: 6.85 units
Worst Event: -8.28 units
Average Event: -0.28 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 2, Units: 12.17
Max Losing Streak: Events: 3, Units: -15.24

mike stembridge: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2021	92.5	11.0	12%	8.7 / 85 (10%)	-1.1 / 2.5 (-45%)	3.4 / 5 (69%)	4 / 2 (67%)	1.84
2020	79.5	-15.2	-19%	-9.4 / 48 (-20%)	-0.1 / 10.5 (-1%)	-5.7 / 21 (-27%)	3 / 6 (33%)	-1.69

mike stembridge: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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mike stembridge: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	172	-4.2	-2%	-0.7 / 133 (-1%)	-1.2 / 13 (-9%)	-2.3 / 26 (-9%)

mike stembridge: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	8 (20%)	7	88 %	32.00	8.31	1.04	26%
Slight Favorites	27 (66%)	15	56 %	90.00	-0.56	-0.02	-1%
Slight Underdogs	4 (10%)	1	25 %	9.00	-6.48	-1.62	-72%
Big Underdogs	2 (5%)	0	0 %	2.00	-2.00	-1.00	-100%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	6 (15%)	3	50 %	28.00	0.97	0.16	3%
Co-Main Event	4 (10%)	0	0 %	10.00	-10.00	-2.50	-100%
Position 3-5	12 (29%)	8	67 %	30.00	6.08	0.51	20%
6+ (Undercard)	19 (46%)	12	63 %	65.00	2.23	0.12	3%

mike stembridge: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	2 (5%)	2	100 %	6.00	3.94	1.97	66%
Light Heavy	1 (2%)		0 %	3.00	-3.00	-3.00	-100%
Middleweight	4 (10%)	1	25 %	12.00	-2.65	-0.66	-22%
Welterweight	5 (12%)	3	60 %	13.00	-0.99	-0.20	-8%
Lightweight	11 (27%)	7	64 %	45.00	-0.17	-0.02	-0%
Featherweight	5 (12%)	3	60 %	22.00	3.68	0.74	17%
Bantamweight	4 (10%)	2	50 %	10.00	0.79	0.20	8%
Flyweight	4 (10%)	2	50 %	10.00	-2.86	-0.71	-29%

Women's Fights	5 (12%)	3	60 %	12.00	0.53	0.11	4%
Bantamweight	1 (2%)	1	100 %	3.00	1.50	1.50	50%
Strawweight	4 (10%)	2	50 %	9.00	-0.97	-0.24	-11%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	18 (95%)	13	72 %
Slight Favorites	1 (5%)	1	100 %
Slight Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %
Big Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %
	19	14	74 %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	0 (0%)	0	nan %
50-65%	1 (11%)	1	100 %
35-50%	6 (67%)	2	33 %
<35% chance	2 (22%)	0	0 %
	9	3	33 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	1 (11%)	1	100 %	1.68	1.68	1.68	0.7 (68%)
X Wins by KO	1 (11%)	0	0 %	4.75	4.75	4.75	-1.0 (-100%)
X Wins by Sub	1 (11%)	1	100 %	2.75	2.75	2.75	1.7 (175%)
X Wins by Decision	3 (33%)	1	33 %	2.88	4.00	2.30	-0.7 (-23%)
X Wins Inside Distance	3 (33%)	0	0 %	2.17	2.20	2.10	-3.0 (-100%)
	9	3	33 %	2.50			-2.3 (-25%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail mike stembridge's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
1st Aug	UFC Vegas 5	9	-5.9	-66%		$10.00	$1,000.00	$940.81
8th Aug	UFC Vegas 6	5	2.5	51%		$9.41	$940.81	$964.58
15th Aug	UFC 252	11	-6.0	-54%		$9.65	$964.58	$907.10
29th Aug	UFC Fight Night 182	6.5	-2.7	-41%		$9.07	$907.10	$882.74
5th Sep	UFC Fight Night 183	10	4.2	42%		$8.83	$882.74	$919.71
12th Sep	UFC Fight Night 184	8	-0.1	-2%		$9.20	$919.71	$918.37
19th Sep	UFC FN - Covington vs Woodley	6	3.3	55%		$9.18	$918.37	$948.84
26th Sep	UFC 253	15	-8.3	-55%		$9.49	$948.84	$870.32
8th Nov	UFC Vegas 13	9	-2.2	-25%		$8.70	$870.32	$850.74
15th May	UFC 262	9	-4.7	-52%		$8.51	$850.74	$810.66
10th Jul	UFC 264	24	6.8	29%		$8.11	$810.66	$866.17
7th Aug	UFC 265	10.5	5.3	51%		$8.66	$866.17	$912.30
28th Aug	UFC FN	3	-3.0	-100%		$9.12	$912.30	$884.93
25th Sep	UFC 266	30	3.2	11%		$8.85	$884.93	$913.26
6th Nov	UFC 268	16	3.4	21%		$9.13	$913.26	$943.88

ROI % from starting bank balance: -5.61% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

mike stembridge: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Nov '21	Shane Burgos	Billy Quarantillo	1.53	2	U Decision (3 rounds)
2.	Nov '21	Bobby Green	Al Iaquinta	1.57	5	TKO, R1 (2:25)
3.	Sep '21	Alex Volkanovski	Brian Ortega	1.54	10	U Decision (5 rounds)
4.	Sep '21	Robbie Lawler	Nick Diaz	1.87	5	TKO, R3 (0:44)
5.	Sep '21	Daniel Hooker	Nasrat Haqparast	1.69	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
6.	Aug '21	Rafael Fiziev	Bobby Green	1.36	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
7.	Aug '21	Miles Johns	Anderson dos Santos	1.53	5	TKO, R3 (1:16)
8.	Jul '21	Jennifer Maia	Jessica Eye	1.54	3	U Decision (3 rounds)
9.	Jul '21	Ilia Topuria	Ryan Hall	1.44	5	TKO, R1 (4:47)
10.	Jul '21	Dustin Poirier	Conor McGregor	1.77	5	TKO, R1 (5:0)
11.	Jul '21	Michel Pereira	Niko Price	1.65	3	U Decision (3 rounds)
12.	Jul '21	Tai Tuivasa	Greg Hardy	1.74	3	TKO, R1 (1:7)
13.	May '21	Tucker Lutz	Kevin Aguilar	1.77	1	U Decision (3 rounds)
14.	May '21	Rogerio Bontorin	Matt Schnell	2.52	1	U Decision (3 rounds)
15.	Nov '20	Max Griffin	Ramiz Brahimaj	1.77	2	TKO, R3 (2:3)
16.	Nov '20	Yan Xiaonan	Claudia Gadelha	1.61	2	U Decision (3 rounds)
17.	Sep '20	Brad Riddell	Alex da Silva	1.34	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
18.	Sep '20	Jessica-Rose Clark	Sarah Alpar	1.50	3	TKO, R3 (4:21)
19.	Sep '20	Mackenzie Dern	Randa Markos	1.61	3	Sub, R1 (3:44)
20.	Sep '20	Alistair Overeem	Augusto Sakai	1.57	3	TKO, R5 (0:26)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Nov '21	Weili Zhang	Rose Namajunas	1.87	2	Split Decision (5 rounds)	No
2.	Sep '21	Omar Morales	Jonathan Pearce	1.67	5	Sub, R2 (3:31)	No
3.	Sep '21	Uros Medic	Jalin Turner	1.83	5	Sub, R1 (4:1)	No
4.	Aug '21	Edson Barboza	Giga Chikadze	1.91	3	TKO, R3 (1:44)	No
5.	Jul '21	Stephen Thompson	Gilbert Burns	1.63	5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
6.	May '21	Shane Burgos	Edson Barboza	1.67	2	TKO, R3 (1:16)	No
7.	May '21	Michael Chandler	Charles Oliveira	2.12	5	TKO, R2 (0:19)	No
8.	Nov '20	Bevon Lewis	Trevin Giles	1.93	2	TKO, R3 (1:26)	No
9.	Sep '20	Kai Kara-France	Brandon Royval	1.47	4	Sub, R2 (0:48)	No
10.	Sep '20	Aleksa Camur	William Knight	1.63	3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
11.	Sep '20	Angela Hill	Michelle Waterson	1.85	2	Split Decision (5 rounds)	No
12.	Sep '20	Bartosz Fabinski	Andre Muniz	1.77	2	Sub, R1 (2:42)	No
13.	Aug '20	Robbie Lawler	Neil Magny	3.30	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
14.	Aug '20	Alessio Di Chirico	Zak Cummings	1.80	3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
15.	Aug '20	Jim Miller	Vinc Pichel	2.10	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
16.	Aug '20	John Dodson	Merab Dvalishvili	3.15	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
17.	Aug '20	Johnny Munoz	Nathan Maness	2.10	2	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
18.	Aug '20	Joanne Wood	Jennifer Maia	1.66	2	Sub, R1 (4:29)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

mike stembridge: Progress Chart

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