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MMA Handicapper Stats: Muddy Oracle

Muddy Oracle (MuddyOracle)

MMA MHandicapper - Muddy Oracle

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	61 (51%)	Right	48 (50%)	Right	13 (57%)	Right	0 (nan%)
Wrong	58 (49%)	Wrong	48 (50%)	Wrong	10 (43%)	Wrong	0 (nan%)
Avg Odds	2.29	Avg Odds	2.31	Avg Odds	2.18	Avg Odds	nan
Units Bet	589.7	Units Bet	476.7	Units Bet	113.0	Units Bet	0.0
Avg Bet	4.96	Avg Bet	4.97	Avg Bet	4.91	Avg Bet	nan
Units Profit	131.29	Units Profit	112.17	Units Profit	19.12	Units Profit	0.00
ROI %	22%	ROI %	24%	ROI %	17%	ROI %	nan%

Muddy Oracle: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
20th Feb '21	UFC Fight Night 185	3	2.1	69%		2.1 / 3 (69%)
14th Feb '21	UFC 258	25	6.8	27%	6.8 / 25 (27%)
6th Feb '21	UFC FN	10	1.4	14%	1.4 / 10 (14%)
30th Jan '21	Oktagon 21	5	-5.0	-100%	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
29th Jan '21	LFA 98	5	-5.0	-100%	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
24th Jan '21	UFC 257	15	8.4	56%	0.7 / 10 (7%)	7.7 / 5 (155%)
20th Jan '21	UFC on ESPN 20	30	-9.8	-33%	-4.5 / 15 (-30%)	-5.3 / 15 (-36%)
16th Jan '21	UFC FN	30	9.2	31%	19.2 / 20 (96%)	-10.0 / 10 (-100%)
19th Dec '20	UFC Vegas 17	25	5.1	20%	5.1 / 25 (20%)
13th Dec '20	UFC 256	25	-3.0	-12%	-7.6 / 20 (-38%)	4.6 / 5 (91%)
11th Dec '20	Cage Warriors 118	5	-5.0	-100%	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
11th Dec '20	Bellator 254	15	17.7	118%	17.7 / 15 (118%)
6th Dec '20	UFC Vegas 16	10	-10.0	-100%	-10.0 / 10 (-100%)
29th Nov '20	UFC Vegas 15	20	23.9	119%	23.9 / 20 (119%)
21st Nov '20	UFC 255	10	1.3	13%	1.3 / 10 (13%)
19th Nov '20	Bellator 253	10	0.7	7%	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)	5.7 / 5 (115%)
14th Nov '20	UFC Vegas 14	15	-1.3	-8%	3.7 / 10 (37%)	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
12th Nov '20	Bellator 252	5	-5.0	-100%	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
8th Nov '20	UFC Vegas 13	10	13.9	139%	13.9 / 10 (139%)
31st Oct '20	UFC Vegas 12	15	25.5	170%	12.8 / 5 (255%)	12.8 / 10 (128%)
29th Oct '20	Bellator 250	5	-5.0	-100%	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
24th Oct '20	UFC 254	20	0.1	1%	-5.5 / 15 (-36%)	5.6 / 5 (111%)
17th Oct '20	UFC FN - Ortega vs Zombie	10	1.3	13%	1.3 / 10 (13%)
10th Oct '20	UFC FN - Moraes vs Sandhagen	15	9.7	65%	6.0 / 10 (60%)	3.7 / 5 (74%)
4th Oct '20	UFC FN - Holm vs Aldana	25	9.0	36%	9.0 / 25 (36%)
26th Sep '20	UFC 253	20	7.5	38%	12.5 / 15 (83%)	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
19th Sep '20	UFC FN - Covington vs Woodley	15	17.8	118%	10.3 / 10 (103%)	7.5 / 5 (150%)
12th Sep '20	UFC Fight Night 184	10	-10.0	-100%	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
11th Sep '20	Bellator 245	5	-5.0	-100%	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
5th Sep '20	UFC Fight Night 183	5	-5.0	-100%	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
22nd Aug '20	UFC Vegas 7	5	-5.0	-100%	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
21st Aug '20	Bellator 244	5	6.2	123%	6.2 / 5 (123%)
15th Aug '20	UFC 252	20	17.7	88%	17.7 / 20 (88%)
8th Aug '20	UFC Vegas 6	15	-6.0	-40%	-6.0 / 15 (-40%)
1st Aug '20	UFC Vegas 5	10	-2.5	-25%	-2.5 / 10 (-25%)
25th Jul '20	UFC Fight Island 3	25	3.1	12%	8.1 / 20 (40%)	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
25th Jul '20	Bellator 242	1.65	1.1	65%	1.1 / 1.65 (65%)
18th Jul '20	UFC Fight Island 2	10	-10.0	-100%	-10.0 / 10 (-100%)
15th Jul '20	UFC Fight Island 1	10	-1.2	-12%	-1.2 / 10 (-12%)
11th Jul '20	UFC 251	20	9.9	49%		9.9 / 20 (49%)
20th Jun '20	UFC Fight Night 174	15	19.6	131%	19.6 / 15 (131%)
13th Jun '20	UFC Fight Night 173	15	-6.0	-40%	-1.0 / 10 (-10%)	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
6th Jun '20	UFC 250	20	12.5	62%	12.5 / 20 (62%)

Winning Events: 25 (58%)
Losing Events: 18 (42%)

Average Staked Per Event: 13.71 units
Most Staked On One Event: 30.00 units
Best Event: 25.50 units
Worst Event: -10.00 units
Average Event: 3.05 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 6, Units: 45.25
Max Losing Streak: Events: 4, Units: -25.00

Muddy Oracle: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2021	123	8.0	7%	13.6 / 90 (15%)	-5.5 / 33 (-17%)		5 / 3 (63%)	1.00
2020	466.65	123.3	26%	98.6 / 386.65 (26%)	24.7 / 80 (31%)		20 / 15 (57%)	3.52

Muddy Oracle: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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Muddy Oracle: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	528	135.6	26%	122.2 / 420 (29%)	13.4 / 108 (12%)
Bellator	46.65	10.7	23%	5.0 / 41.65 (12%)	5.7 / 5 (115%)
Other	15	-15.0	-100%	-15.0 / 15 (-100%)

Muddy Oracle: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	1 (1%)	1	100 %	5.00	2.50	2.50	50%
Slight Favorites	29 (30%)	17	59 %	141.65	6.12	0.21	4%
Slight Underdogs	43 (45%)	17	40 %	215.00	-18.10	-0.42	-8%
Big Underdogs	23 (24%)	13	57 %	115.00	121.65	5.29	106%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	17 (18%)	8	47 %	85.00	-3.25	-0.19	-4%
Co-Main Event	15 (16%)	9	60 %	71.65	33.37	2.22	47%
Position 3-5	31 (32%)	16	52 %	155.00	37.65	1.21	24%
6+ (Undercard)	33 (34%)	15	45 %	165.00	44.40	1.35	27%

Muddy Oracle: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	5 (5%)	5	100 %	25.00	46.10	9.22	184%
Light Heavy	7 (7%)	4	57 %	35.00	21.95	3.14	63%
Middleweight	10 (10%)	4	40 %	50.00	3.30	0.33	7%
Welterweight	18 (19%)	6	33 %	86.65	-11.13	-0.62	-13%
Lightweight	13 (14%)	5	38 %	65.00	6.75	0.52	10%
Featherweight	10 (10%)	7	70 %	50.00	32.65	3.27	65%
Bantamweight	14 (15%)	6	43 %	70.00	-2.65	-0.19	-4%
Flyweight	4 (4%)	3	75 %	20.00	8.50	2.12	42%

Women's Fights	15 (16%)	8	53 %	75.00	6.70	0.45	9%
Bantamweight	3 (3%)	2	67 %	15.00	4.90	1.63	33%
Flyweight	6 (6%)	3	50 %	30.00	0.65	0.11	2%
Strawweight	6 (6%)	3	50 %	30.00	1.15	0.19	4%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	0 (nan%)	0	nan %
Slight Favorites	0 (nan%)	0	nan %
Slight Underdogs	0 (nan%)	0	nan %
Big Underdogs	0 (nan%)	0	nan %
	0	0	nan %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	0 (0%)	0	nan %
50-65%	7 (30%)	5	71 %
35-50%	14 (61%)	8	57 %
<35% chance	2 (9%)	0	0 %
	23	13	57 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	4 (17%)	2	50 %	2.22	2.85	1.91	0.2 (4%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	8 (35%)	4	50 %	2.34	3.60	1.93	0.3 (4%)
Does not go to Decision	10 (43%)	6	60 %	2.11	2.55	1.67	2.9 (29%)
Fight Doesn't Start Round X	1 (4%)	1	100 %	1.69	1.69	1.69	0.7 (69%)
	23	13	57 %	2.18			4.1 (18%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Muddy Oracle's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
6th Jun	UFC 250	20	12.5	62%	$5	$10.00	$1,000.00	$1,119.50
13th Jun	UFC Fight Night 173	15	-6.0	-40%	$5	$11.20	$1,119.50	$1,047.33
20th Jun	UFC Fight Night 174	15	19.6	131%	$5	$10.47	$1,047.33	$1,247.61
11th Jul	UFC 251	20	9.9	49%	$5	$12.48	$1,247.61	$1,365.50
15th Jul	UFC Fight Island 1	10	-1.2	-12%	$5	$13.65	$1,365.50	$1,344.11
18th Jul	UFC Fight Island 2	10	-10.0	-100%	$5	$13.44	$1,344.11	$1,204.70
25th Jul	Bellator 242	1.65	1.1	65%	$5	$12.05	$1,204.70	$1,212.62
25th Jul	UFC Fight Island 3	25	3.1	12%	$5	$12.13	$1,212.62	$1,245.21
1st Aug	UFC Vegas 5	10	-2.5	-25%	$5	$12.45	$1,245.21	$1,209.08
8th Aug	UFC Vegas 6	15	-6.0	-40%	$5	$12.09	$1,209.08	$1,131.54
15th Aug	UFC 252	20	17.7	88%	$5	$11.32	$1,131.54	$1,326.25
21st Aug	Bellator 244	5	6.2	123%	$5	$13.26	$1,326.25	$1,402.82
22nd Aug	UFC Vegas 7	5	-5.0	-100%	$5	$14.03	$1,402.82	$1,327.68
5th Sep	UFC Fight Night 183	5	-5.0	-100%	$5	$13.28	$1,327.68	$1,256.29
11th Sep	Bellator 245	5	-5.0	-100%	$5	$12.56	$1,256.29	$1,188.48
12th Sep	UFC Fight Night 184	10	-10.0	-100%	$5	$11.88	$1,188.48	$1,064.63
19th Sep	UFC FN - Covington vs Woodley	15	17.8	118%	$5	$10.65	$1,064.63	$1,248.61
26th Sep	UFC 253	20	7.5	38%	$5	$12.49	$1,248.61	$1,337.25
4th Oct	UFC FN - Holm vs Aldana	25	9.0	36%	$5	$13.37	$1,337.25	$1,451.94
10th Oct	UFC FN - Moraes vs Sandhagen	15	9.7	65%	$5	$14.52	$1,451.94	$1,587.78
17th Oct	UFC FN - Ortega vs Zombie	10	1.3	13%	$5	$15.88	$1,587.78	$1,602.63
24th Oct	UFC 254	20	0.1	1%	$5	$16.03	$1,602.63	$1,599.23
29th Oct	Bellator 250	5	-5.0	-100%	$5	$15.99	$1,599.23	$1,514.27
31st Oct	UFC Vegas 12	15	25.5	170%	$5	$15.14	$1,514.27	$1,895.41
8th Nov	UFC Vegas 13	10	13.9	139%	$5	$18.95	$1,895.41	$2,153.87
12th Nov	Bellator 252	5	-5.0	-100%	$5	$21.54	$2,153.87	$2,041.18
14th Nov	UFC Vegas 14	15	-1.3	-8%	$5	$20.41	$2,041.18	$2,010.66
19th Nov	Bellator 253	10	0.7	7%	$5	$20.11	$2,010.66	$2,020.74
21st Nov	UFC 255	10	1.3	13%	$5	$20.21	$2,020.74	$2,041.00
29th Nov	UFC Vegas 15	20	23.9	119%	$5	$20.41	$2,041.00	$2,522.78
6th Dec	UFC Vegas 16	10	-10.0	-100%	$5	$25.23	$2,522.78	$2,265.50
11th Dec	Bellator 254	15	17.7	118%	$5	$22.66	$2,265.50	$2,662.62
11th Dec	Cage Warriors 118	5	-5.0	-100%	$5	$26.63	$2,662.62	$2,524.49
13th Dec	UFC 256	25	-3.0	-12%	$5	$25.24	$2,524.49	$2,443.75
19th Dec	UFC Vegas 17	25	5.1	20%	$5	$24.44	$2,443.75	$2,563.38
16th Jan	UFC FN	30	9.2	31%	$5	$25.63	$2,563.38	$2,795.49
20th Jan	UFC on ESPN 20	30	-9.8	-33%	$5	$27.95	$2,795.49	$2,515.14
24th Jan	UFC 257	15	8.4	56%	$5	$25.15	$2,515.14	$2,721.41
29th Jan	LFA 98	5	-5.0	-100%		$27.21	$2,721.41	$2,585.34
30th Jan	Oktagon 21	5	-5.0	-100%		$25.85	$2,585.34	$2,456.07
6th Feb	UFC FN	10	1.4	14%	$5	$24.56	$2,456.07	$2,485.45
14th Feb	UFC 258	25	6.8	27%	$5	$24.85	$2,485.45	$2,648.23
20th Feb	UFC Fight Night 185	3	2.1	69%	$5	$26.48	$2,648.23	$2,698.04

ROI % from starting bank balance: 169.80% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Muddy Oracle: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Feb '21	Anthony Hernandez	Rodolfo Vieira	4.50	5	Sub, R2 (1:53)
2.	Feb '21	Alexa Grasso	Maycee Barber	1.85	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
3.	Feb '21	Lara Fritzen Procopio	Molly McCann	2.28	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
4.	Jan '21	Julianna Pena	Sara McMann	2.13	5	Sub, R3 (3:39)
5.	Jan '21	Matt Schnell	Tyson Nam	2.10	5	Split Decision (3 rounds)
6.	Jan '21	Punahele Soriano	Dusko Todorovic	2.45	5	TKO, R1 (4:48)
7.	Jan '21	Li Jingliang	Santiago Ponzinibbio	3.75	5	TKO, R1 (4:25)
8.	Jan '21	Max Holloway	Calvin Kattar	1.65	5	U Decision (5 rounds)
9.	Dec '20	Marcin Tybura	Greg Hardy	2.02	5	TKO, R2 (4:31)
10.	Dec '20	Taila Santos	Gillian Robertson	2.00	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
11.	Dec '20	Stephen Thompson	Geoff Neal	2.00	5	U Decision (5 rounds)
12.	Dec '20	Billy Goff	Robson Gracie Jr.	4.75	5	TKO, R2 (1:46)
13.	Dec '20	Juliana Velasquez	Ilima-Lei Macfarlane	1.80	5	U Decision (5 rounds)
14.	Dec '20	Charles Oliveira	Tony Ferguson	2.49	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
15.	Nov '20	Bill Algeo	Spike Carlyle	2.62	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
16.	Nov '20	Anderson dos Santos	Martin Day	2.45	5	Sub, R1 (4:35)
17.	Nov '20	Jonathan Pearce	Kai Kamaka	3.70	5	TKO, R2 (4:28)
18.	Nov '20	Tim Means	Mike Perry	2.25	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
19.	Nov '20	Cory McKenna	Kay Hansen	2.75	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
20.	Nov '20	Glover Teixeira	Thiago Santos	3.04	5	Sub, R3 (1:49)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Feb '21	Andre Ewell	Chris Gutierrez	2.20	5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
2.	Feb '21	Gilbert Burns	Kamaru Usman	3.35	5	TKO, R3 (0:34)	No
3.	Feb '21	Maki Pitolo	Julian Marquez	2.45	5	Sub, R3 (4:17)	No
4.	Feb '21	Carlos Diego Ferreira	Beneil Dariush	2.00	5	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
5.	Jan '21	Alex Lohore	Leandro Silva	2.20	5	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
6.	Jan '21	Bruno Oliveira	Josh Fremd	2.15	5	TKO, R1 (2:37)	No
7.	Jan '21	Daniel Hooker	Michael Chandler	1.78	5	TKO, R1 (2:30)	No
8.	Jan '21	Mason Jones	Mike Davis	2.55	5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
9.	Jan '21	Jerome Rivera	Francisco Figueiredo	2.28	5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
10.	Jan '21	Matt Brown	Carlos Condit	2.55	5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
11.	Dec '20	Alex Morono	Anthony Pettis	2.90	5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
12.	Dec '20	Marlon Vera	Jose Aldo	2.40	5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
13.	Dec '20	Virna Jandiroba	Mackenzie Dern	2.65	5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
14.	Dec '20	Renato Moicano	Rafael Fiziev	2.30	5	TKO, R1 (4:5)	No
15.	Dec '20	Aaron Khalid	Leonardo Damiani	2.05	5	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
16.	Dec '20	Matheus Mattos	Magomed Magomedov	3.40	5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
17.	Dec '20	Daniel Pineda	Cub Swanson	1.69	5	TKO, R2 (1:52)	No
18.	Dec '20	John Allan	Roman Dolidze	2.75	5	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
19.	Dec '20	Damon Jackson	Ilia Topuria	3.15	5	TKO, R1 (2:38)	No
20.	Nov '20	Takashi Sato	Miguel Baeza	2.40	5	Sub, R2 (4:28)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Muddy Oracle: Progress Chart

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