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MMA Handicapper Stats: Aaron Watershow

Aaron Watershow (aaronwatershow)


Mixed Martial Arts Management - Aaron Watershow

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MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats

Straight Fight Picks

Props

Parlays

Right 72 (47%) Right 50 (49%) Right 21 (42%) Right 1 (50%)
Wrong 82 (53%) Wrong 52 (51%) Wrong 29 (58%) Wrong 1 (50%)
Avg Odds 2.10 Avg Odds 2.00 Avg Odds 2.34 Avg Odds 1.97
Units Bet 194.4 Units Bet 139.6 Units Bet 52.8 Units Bet 2.1
Avg Bet 1.26 Avg Bet 1.37 Avg Bet 1.06 Avg Bet 1.04
Units Profit 1.90 Units Profit 2.60 Units Profit -0.70 Units Profit 0.00
ROI % 1% ROI % 2% ROI % -1% ROI % 0%
View Handicapper's Profile

Aaron Watershow: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date Event Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
7th May '21 Bellator 258 2.75 -0.4 -15% -0.4 / 2.75 (-15%)
1st May '21 UFC FN 3.15 -0.6 -17% -1.4 / 1.4 (-100%) 0.8 / 1.75 (49%)
24th Apr '21 UFC 261 6.33 -2.2 -35% -2.0 / 4.33 (-46%) 0.8 / 1 (80%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
17th Apr '21 UFC FN 3.9 0.6 15% 0.6 / 3.9 (15%)
16th Apr '21 Bellator 257 1.95 1.0 51% 1.0 / 1.95 (51%)
2nd Apr '21 Bellator 255 1.08 1.0 93% 1.0 / 1.08 (93%)
28th Mar '21 UFC 260 6.1 3.5 57% 2.5 / 4.9 (51%) 1.0 / 1.2 (83%)
13th Mar '21 UFC Fight Night 187 3.9 -1.4 -36% -1.4 / 3.9 (-36%)
6th Mar '21 UFC 259 6.25 -4.7 -76% -3.7 / 5.25 (-71%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
20th Feb '21 UFC Fight Night 185 2.5 -2.5 -100% -2.0 / 2 (-100%) -0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)
14th Feb '21 UFC 258 4.75 0.9 19% -0.5 / 4.25 (-12%) 1.4 / 0.5 (280%)
12th Feb '21 LFA 99 1.15 1.0 87% 1.0 / 1.15 (87%)
6th Feb '21 UFC FN 4.55 3.3 73% 3.0 / 2.1 (142%) 0.4 / 2.45 (14%)
29th Jan '21 LFA 98 1.65 -1.7 -100% -1.7 / 1.65 (-100%)
24th Jan '21 UFC 257 6.6 -1.8 -27% -0.0 / 4.85 (-1%) -1.8 / 1.75 (-100%)
20th Jan '21 UFC on ESPN 20 6.7 3.8 57% 3.3 / 3.4 (99%) 0.5 / 3.3 (14%)
19th Dec '20 UFC Vegas 17 8.5 3.3 39% 3.3 / 8.5 (39%)
13th Dec '20 UFC 256 6.35 3.4 54% 2.4 / 5.2 (46%) 1.0 / 1.15 (87%)
11th Dec '20 Bellator 254 1.5 1.0 67% 1.0 / 1.5 (67%)
6th Dec '20 UFC Vegas 16 2 2.0 100% 2.0 / 2 (100%)
29th Nov '20 UFC Vegas 15 4.6 0.3 5% 1.3 / 3.6 (35%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
19th Nov '20 Bellator 253 2.2 2.0 91% 2.0 / 2.2 (91%)
31st Oct '20 UFC Vegas 12 3 -3.0 -100% -3.0 / 3 (-100%)
10th Oct '20 UFC FN - Moraes vs Sandhagen 4.25 -4.3 -100% -3.0 / 3 (-100%) -1.3 / 1.25 (-100%)
4th Oct '20 UFC FN - Holm vs Aldana 4.85 2.1 43% 2.1 / 4.85 (43%)
26th Sep '20 UFC 253 3.2 -0.3 -11% 1.0 / 1.85 (54%) -1.4 / 1.35 (-100%)
5th Sep '20 UFC Fight Night 183 4 0.8 21% -0.2 / 3.75 (-4%) 1.0 / 0.25 (400%)
2nd Sep '20 DWCS 31 1 -1.0 -100% -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
26th Aug '20 DWCS 30 1 -1.0 -100% -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
22nd Aug '20 UFC Vegas 7 3.9 3.0 77% 2.0 / 2.3 (87%) 1.0 / 1.6 (63%)
15th Aug '20 UFC 252 3.3 -1.3 -39% 1.0 / 1 (100%) -2.3 / 2.3 (-100%)
8th Aug '20 UFC Vegas 6 9.55 1.4 15% -0.5 / 2.65 (-19%) 1.9 / 6.9 (28%)
25th Jul '20 UFC Fight Island 3 6.2 0.8 12% 0.0 / 4.8 (0%) 0.8 / 1.4 (54%)
18th Jul '20 UFC Fight Island 2 7.95 2.8 35% 3.0 / 7.7 (39%) -0.3 / 0.25 (-100%)
15th Jul '20 UFC Fight Island 1 4.4 -1.8 -41% -1.8 / 4.4 (-41%)
11th Jul '20 UFC 251 9.85 -7.8 -79% -6.2 / 6.15 (-100%) -1.6 / 3.7 (-43%)
2nd Jul '20 Invicta 40 1.2 -1.2 -100% -1.2 / 1.2 (-100%)
27th Jun '20 UFC Fight Night 175 1.65 1.0 61% 1.0 / 1.65 (61%)
20th Jun '20 UFC Fight Night 174 3.7 -1.5 -41% -1.0 / 3.2 (-31%) -0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)
13th Jun '20 UFC Fight Night 173 2.6 2.0 77% 2.0 / 2.6 (77%)
6th Jun '20 UFC 250 10.2 1.5 15% 3.0 / 6.4 (47%) -1.5 / 3.8 (-39%)
16th May '20 UFC Fight Night 171 4.15 3.0 72% 3.0 / 4.15 (72%)
14th May '20 UFC Fight Night 170 10 -2.6 -26% -1.6 / 9 (-18%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
26th Oct '19 UFC Fight Night 162 4 -2.2 -54% -2.2 / 4 (-54%)
18th Oct '19 UFC ESPN 6 2 -0.3 -16% -0.3 / 2 (-16%)


Winning Events: 24 (53%)
Losing Events: 21 (47%)

Average Staked Per Event: 4.32 units
Most Staked On One Event: 10.20 units
Best Event: 3.80 units
Worst Event: -7.75 units
Average Event: 0.04 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 7, Units: 15.75
Max Losing Streak: Events: 3, Units: -10.75

Aaron Watershow: Year on Year Profit

Year Bet Won ROI Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Events
Won / Lost (%)
Profit
Per Event
2021 63.31 -0.1 -0% -1.3 / 45.03 (-3%) 1.2 / 16.2 (7%) 0.0 / 2.08 (0%) 8 / 8 (50%) -0.01
2020 125.1 4.5 4% 6.4 / 88.55 (7%) -1.9 / 36.55 (-5%) 16 / 11 (59%) 0.17
2019 6 -2.5 -41% -2.5 / 6 (-41%) / 2 (0%) -1.24

Aaron Watershow: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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Aaron Watershow: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
UFC 178.93 1.1 1% 5.4 / 131.63 (4%) -3.3 / 46.3 (-7%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
Bellator 9.48 4.6 49% 1.0 / 1.95 (51%) 2.6 / 6.45 (40%) 1.0 / 1.08 (93%)
Other 6 -3.8 -64% -3.8 / 6 (-64%)

Aaron Watershow: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 4 (4%) 3 75 % 11.05 2.05 0.51 19%
Slight Favorites 49 (48%) 33 67 % 80.53 15.97 0.33 20%
Slight Underdogs 40 (39%) 12 30 % 41.50 -13.40 -0.33 -32%
Big Underdogs 10 (10%) 3 30 % 6.50 -2.02 -0.20 -31%



Betting Stats By Card Position

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Main Event 12 (12%) 6 50 % 16.00 -1.35 -0.11 -8%
Co-Main Event 9 (9%) 3 33 % 11.00 -4.15 -0.46 -38%
Position 3-5 31 (30%) 18 58 % 43.25 7.54 0.24 17%
6+ (Undercard) 51 (50%) 24 47 % 69.33 0.56 0.01 1%

Aaron Watershow: Profit by Weight Class

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Heavyweight 5 (5%) 4 80 % 6.40 2.35 0.47 37%
Light Heavy 9 (9%) 5 56 % 10.30 0.25 0.03 2%
Middleweight 10 (10%) 5 50 % 12.30 2.70 0.27 22%
Welterweight 11 (11%) 5 45 % 14.83 -2.25 -0.20 -15%
Lightweight 10 (10%) 4 40 % 10.65 -1.90 -0.19 -18%
Featherweight 11 (11%) 6 55 % 15.45 1.98 0.18 13%
Bantamweight 12 (12%) 4 33 % 16.50 -6.60 -0.55 -40%
Flyweight 10 (10%) 5 50 % 15.65 0.70 0.07 4%
               
Women's Fights 25 (24%) 13 52 % 37.50 5.37 0.21 14%
Bantamweight 8 (8%) 4 50 % 11.30 1.20 0.15 11%
Flyweight 10 (10%) 5 50 % 15.75 2.54 0.25 16%
Strawweight 7 (7%) 4 57 % 10.45 1.63 0.23 16%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
Big Favorites 4 (100%) 3 75 %
Slight Favorites 0 (0%) 0 nan %
Slight Underdogs 0 (0%) 0 nan %
Big Underdogs 0 (0%) 0 nan %
4 3 75 %

 

Props bets and props within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
>65% chance 0 (0%) 0 nan %
50-65% 24 (48%) 12 50 %
35-50% 12 (24%) 6 50 %
<35% chance 14 (28%) 3 21 %
50 21 42 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type Picks Correct % Correct Avg
Odds
Longest
Odds
Shortest
Odds
1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 4 (8%) 2 50 % 2.17 3.80Pick was correct 1.80Pick was incorrect 1.9 (47%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 29 (58%) 13 45 % 2.00 3.50Pick was incorrect 1.57Pick was incorrect -3.4 (-12%)
Does not go to Decision 5 (10%) 3 60 % 2.13 2.60Pick was correct 1.80Pick was correct 1.4 (28%)
X Wins by KO 6 (12%) 1 17 % 3.60 10.00Pick was incorrect 1.65Pick was incorrect -4.2 (-69%)
X Wins by Sub 5 (10%) 1 20 % 7.11 11.00Pick was incorrect 5.00Pick was correct 0.0 (0%)
X Wins Inside Distance 1 (2%) 1 100 % 3.00 3.00Pick was correct 3.00Pick was correct 2.0 (200%)
50 21 42 % 2.34     -2.3 (-5%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Aaron Watershow's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date Event Bet Won ROI Fee 1 unit = Start End
18th Oct UFC ESPN 6 2 -0.3 -16% $10.00 $1,000.00 $996.90
26th Oct UFC Fight Night 162 4 -2.2 -54% $9.97 $996.90 $975.30
14th May UFC Fight Night 170 10 -2.6 -26% $9.75 $975.30 $949.45
16th May UFC Fight Night 171 4.15 3.0 72% $9.49 $949.45 $977.94
6th Jun UFC 250 10.2 1.5 15% $9.78 $977.94 $992.60
13th Jun UFC Fight Night 173 2.6 2.0 77% $9.93 $992.60 $1,012.46
20th Jun UFC Fight Night 174 3.7 -1.5 -41% $10.12 $1,012.46 $997.27
27th Jun UFC Fight Night 175 1.65 1.0 61% $9.97 $997.27 $1,007.24
2nd Jul Invicta 40 1.2 -1.2 -100% $10.07 $1,007.24 $995.16
11th Jul UFC 251 9.85 -7.8 -79% $9.95 $995.16 $918.03
15th Jul UFC Fight Island 1 4.4 -1.8 -41% $9.18 $918.03 $901.51
18th Jul UFC Fight Island 2 7.95 2.8 35% $9.02 $901.51 $926.30
25th Jul UFC Fight Island 3 6.2 0.8 12% $9.26 $926.30 $933.25
8th Aug UFC Vegas 6 9.55 1.4 15% $9.33 $933.25 $946.31
15th Aug UFC 252 3.3 -1.3 -39% $9.46 $946.31 $934.01
22nd Aug UFC Vegas 7 3.9 3.0 77% $9.34 $934.01 $962.03
26th Aug DWCS 30 1 -1.0 -100% $9.62 $962.03 $952.41
2nd Sep DWCS 31 1 -1.0 -100% $9.52 $952.41 $942.89
5th Sep UFC Fight Night 183 4 0.8 21% $9.43 $942.89 $950.90
26th Sep UFC 253 3.2 -0.3 -11% $9.51 $950.90 $947.57
4th Oct UFC FN - Holm vs Aldana 4.85 2.1 43% $9.48 $947.57 $967.47
10th Oct UFC FN - Moraes vs Sandhagen 4.25 -4.3 -100% $9.67 $967.47 $926.35
31st Oct UFC Vegas 12 3 -3.0 -100% $9.26 $926.35 $898.56
19th Nov Bellator 253 2.2 2.0 91% $8.99 $898.56 $916.53
29th Nov UFC Vegas 15 4.6 0.3 5% $9.17 $916.53 $918.83
6th Dec UFC Vegas 16 2 2.0 100% $9.19 $918.83 $937.20
11th Dec Bellator 254 1.5 1.0 67% $9.37 $937.20 $946.57
13th Dec UFC 256 6.35 3.4 54% $9.47 $946.57 $978.76
19th Dec UFC Vegas 17 8.5 3.3 39% $9.79 $978.76 $1,011.06
20th Jan UFC on ESPN 20 6.7 3.8 57% $10.11 $1,011.06 $1,049.48
24th Jan UFC 257 6.6 -1.8 -27% $10.49 $1,049.48 $1,030.59
29th Jan LFA 98 1.65 -1.7 -100% $10.31 $1,030.59 $1,013.58
6th Feb UFC FN 4.55 3.3 73% $10.14 $1,013.58 $1,047.29
12th Feb LFA 99 1.15 1.0 87% $10.47 $1,047.29 $1,057.76
14th Feb UFC 258 4.75 0.9 19% $10.58 $1,057.76 $1,067.28
20th Feb UFC Fight Night 185 2.5 -2.5 -100% $10.67 $1,067.28 $1,040.60
6th Mar UFC 259 6.25 -4.7 -76% $10.41 $1,040.60 $991.17
13th Mar UFC Fight Night 187 3.9 -1.4 -36% $9.91 $991.17 $977.29
28th Mar UFC 260 6.1 3.5 57% $9.77 $977.29 $1,011.50
2nd Apr Bellator 255 1.08 1.0 93% $10.11 $1,011.50 $1,021.64
16th Apr Bellator 257 1.95 1.0 51% $10.22 $1,021.64 $1,031.85
17th Apr UFC FN 3.9 0.6 15% $10.32 $1,031.85 $1,038.05
24th Apr UFC 261 6.33 -2.2 -35% $10.38 $1,038.05 $1,015.21
1st May UFC FN 3.15 -0.6 -17% $10.15 $1,015.21 $1,009.62
7th May Bellator 258 2.75 -0.4 -15% $10.10 $1,009.62 $1,005.59


ROI % from starting bank balance: 0.56% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Aaron Watershow: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result    
1. Apr '21 Randy Brown Alex Oliveira 1.75 1.33 Sub, R1 (2:50) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
2. Apr '21 Gerald Meerschaert Bartosz Fabinski 2.10 1 Sub, R1 (2:0) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
3. Apr '21 Alexander Romanov Juan Espino 1.71 1.4 Split Decision (3 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
4. Apr '21 Vadim Nemkov Phil Davis 1.51 1.95 U Decision (5 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
5. Mar '21 Miranda Maverick Gillian Robertson 1.65 3.1 U Decision (3 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
6. Mar '21 Francis Ngannou Stipe Miocic 1.77 1.3 TKO, R2 (0:52) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
7. Mar '21 Dan Ige Gavin Tucker 1.67 1.5 TKO, R1 (0:22) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
8. Mar '21 Jan Blachowicz Israel Adesanya 3.00 0.5 U Decision (5 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
9. Feb '21 Kamaru Usman Gilbert Burns 1.36 2.75 TKO, R3 (0:34) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
10. Feb '21 Fernando Padilla Nate Richardson 1.87 1.15 Split Decision (3 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
11. Feb '21 Danilo Marques Mike Rodriguez 3.00 0.5 Sub, R2 (4:52) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
12. Feb '21 Seung Woo Choi Youssef Zalal 2.95 0.5 U Decision (3 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
13. Feb '21 Alexandre Pantoja Manel Kape 1.91 1.1 U Decision (3 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
14. Jan '21 Makhmud Muradov Andrew Sanchez 1.65 1.55 TKO, R3 (2:59) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
15. Jan '21 Michael Chandler Daniel Hooker 2.25 1 TKO, R1 (2:30) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
16. Jan '21 Matt Schnell Tyson Nam 2.20 1 Split Decision (3 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
17. Jan '21 Dalcha Lungiambula Markus Perez 1.71 1.4 U Decision (3 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
18. Jan '21 Michael Chiesa Neil Magny 2.15 1 U Decision (5 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
19. Dec '20 Pannie Kianzad Sijara Eubanks 2.40 1 U Decision (3 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
20. Dec '20 Jimmy Flick Cody Durden 1.65 3.1 Sub, R1 (3:18) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker



Last 20 Losses

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result Hedge?    
1. May '21 Kai Kamaka T.J. Brown 1.71 1.4 Split Decision (3 rounds) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
2. Apr '21 Na Liang Ariane Carnelossi 2.85 1 TKO, R2 (1:28) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
3. Apr '21 Kevin Natividad Danaa Batgerel 2.85 1 TKO, R1 (0:50) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
4. Apr '21 Stefan Sekulic Dwight Grant 2.65 1 Split Decision (3 rounds) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
5. Apr '21 Alex Munoz Luis Pena 2.30 1 Split Decision (3 rounds) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
6. Apr '21 Kelvin Gastelum Robert Whittaker 3.25 0.5 U Decision (5 rounds) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
7. Mar '21 Tyron Woodley Vicente Luque 3.00 0.5 Sub, R1 (3:56) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
8. Mar '21 Manel Kape Matheus Nicolau 1.83 2.4 Split Decision (3 rounds) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
9. Mar '21 Joseph Benavidez Askar Askarov 2.15 1 U Decision (3 rounds) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
10. Mar '21 Yadong Song Kyler Phillips 1.65 1.55 U Decision (3 rounds) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
11. Mar '21 Thiago Santos Aleksandar Rakic 2.55 1 U Decision (3 rounds) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
12. Mar '21 Petr Yan Aljamain Sterling 1.83 1.2 No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
13. Feb '21 Shana Dobson Casey O'Neill 2.30 1 TKO, R2 (3:41) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
14. Feb '21 Eddie Wineland John Castaneda 2.05 1 TKO, R1 (4:44) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
15. Feb '21 Brian Kelleher Ricky Simon 3.00 0.5 U Decision (3 rounds) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
16. Feb '21 Maycee Barber Alexa Grasso 2.05 1 U Decision (3 rounds) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
17. Jan '21 J.J. Okanovich Lucas Clay 1.61 1.65 U Decision (3 rounds) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
18. Jan '21 Zhalgas Zhumagulov Amir Albazi 1.91 1.1 U Decision (3 rounds) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
19. Jan '21 Sara McMann Julianna Pena 1.83 1.2 Sub, R3 (3:39) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
20. Dec '20 Alex Morono Anthony Pettis 2.70 1 U Decision (3 rounds) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Aaron Watershow: Progress Chart

Chart

 

 
 
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