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MMA Handicapper Stats: Aaron Watershow

Aaron Watershow (aaronwatershow)


Mixed Martial Arts Management - Aaron Watershow

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MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats

Straight Fight Picks

Props

Parlays

Right 59 (48%) Right 42 (51%) Right 17 (40%) Right 0 (nan%)
Wrong 65 (52%) Wrong 40 (49%) Wrong 25 (60%) Wrong 0 (nan%)
Avg Odds 2.10 Avg Odds 1.99 Avg Odds 2.34 Avg Odds nan
Units Bet 159.0 Units Bet 114.0 Units Bet 45.1 Units Bet 0.0
Avg Bet 1.28 Avg Bet 1.39 Avg Bet 1.07 Avg Bet nan
Units Profit 5.10 Units Profit 7.05 Units Profit -1.95 Units Profit 0.00
ROI % 3% ROI % 6% ROI % -4% ROI % nan%
View Handicapper's Profile

Aaron Watershow: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date Event Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
20th Feb '21 UFC Fight Night 185 2.5 -2.5 -100% -2.0 / 2 (-100%) -0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)
14th Feb '21 UFC 258 4.75 0.9 19% -0.5 / 4.25 (-12%) 1.4 / 0.5 (280%)
12th Feb '21 LFA 99 1.15 1.0 87% 1.0 / 1.15 (87%)
6th Feb '21 UFC FN 4.55 3.3 73% 3.0 / 2.1 (142%) 0.4 / 2.45 (14%)
29th Jan '21 LFA 98 1.65 -1.7 -100% -1.7 / 1.65 (-100%)
24th Jan '21 UFC 257 6.6 -1.8 -27% -0.0 / 4.85 (-1%) -1.8 / 1.75 (-100%)
20th Jan '21 UFC on ESPN 20 6.7 3.8 57% 3.3 / 3.4 (99%) 0.5 / 3.3 (14%)
19th Dec '20 UFC Vegas 17 8.5 3.3 39% 3.3 / 8.5 (39%)
13th Dec '20 UFC 256 6.35 3.4 54% 2.4 / 5.2 (46%) 1.0 / 1.15 (87%)
11th Dec '20 Bellator 254 1.5 1.0 67% 1.0 / 1.5 (67%)
6th Dec '20 UFC Vegas 16 2 2.0 100% 2.0 / 2 (100%)
29th Nov '20 UFC Vegas 15 4.6 0.3 5% 1.3 / 3.6 (35%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
19th Nov '20 Bellator 253 2.2 2.0 91% 2.0 / 2.2 (91%)
31st Oct '20 UFC Vegas 12 3 -3.0 -100% -3.0 / 3 (-100%)
10th Oct '20 UFC FN - Moraes vs Sandhagen 4.25 -4.3 -100% -3.0 / 3 (-100%) -1.3 / 1.25 (-100%)
4th Oct '20 UFC FN - Holm vs Aldana 4.85 2.1 43% 2.1 / 4.85 (43%)
26th Sep '20 UFC 253 3.2 -0.3 -11% 1.0 / 1.85 (54%) -1.4 / 1.35 (-100%)
5th Sep '20 UFC Fight Night 183 4 0.8 21% -0.2 / 3.75 (-4%) 1.0 / 0.25 (400%)
2nd Sep '20 DWCS 31 1 -1.0 -100% -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
26th Aug '20 DWCS 30 1 -1.0 -100% -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
22nd Aug '20 UFC Vegas 7 3.9 3.0 77% 2.0 / 2.3 (87%) 1.0 / 1.6 (63%)
15th Aug '20 UFC 252 3.3 -1.3 -39% 1.0 / 1 (100%) -2.3 / 2.3 (-100%)
8th Aug '20 UFC Vegas 6 9.55 1.4 15% -0.5 / 2.65 (-19%) 1.9 / 6.9 (28%)
25th Jul '20 UFC Fight Island 3 6.2 0.8 12% 0.0 / 4.8 (0%) 0.8 / 1.4 (54%)
18th Jul '20 UFC Fight Island 2 7.95 2.8 35% 3.0 / 7.7 (39%) -0.3 / 0.25 (-100%)
15th Jul '20 UFC Fight Island 1 4.4 -1.8 -41% -1.8 / 4.4 (-41%)
11th Jul '20 UFC 251 9.85 -7.8 -79% -6.2 / 6.15 (-100%) -1.6 / 3.7 (-43%)
2nd Jul '20 Invicta 40 1.2 -1.2 -100% -1.2 / 1.2 (-100%)
27th Jun '20 UFC Fight Night 175 1.65 1.0 61% 1.0 / 1.65 (61%)
20th Jun '20 UFC Fight Night 174 3.7 -1.5 -41% -1.0 / 3.2 (-31%) -0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)
13th Jun '20 UFC Fight Night 173 2.6 2.0 77% 2.0 / 2.6 (77%)
6th Jun '20 UFC 250 10.2 1.5 15% 3.0 / 6.4 (47%) -1.5 / 3.8 (-39%)
16th May '20 UFC Fight Night 171 4.15 3.0 72% 3.0 / 4.15 (72%)
14th May '20 UFC Fight Night 170 10 -2.6 -26% -1.6 / 9 (-18%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
26th Oct '19 UFC Fight Night 162 4 -2.2 -54% -2.2 / 4 (-54%)
18th Oct '19 UFC ESPN 6 2 -0.3 -16% -0.3 / 2 (-16%)


Winning Events: 20 (56%)
Losing Events: 16 (44%)

Average Staked Per Event: 4.42 units
Most Staked On One Event: 10.20 units
Best Event: 3.80 units
Worst Event: -7.75 units
Average Event: 0.14 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 7, Units: 15.75
Max Losing Streak: Events: 3, Units: -10.75

Aaron Watershow: Year on Year Profit

Year Bet Won ROI Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Events
Won / Lost (%)
Profit
Per Event
2021 27.9 3.1 11% 3.1 / 19.4 (16%) -0.0 / 8.5 (-1%) 4 / 3 (57%) 0.44
2020 125.1 4.5 4% 6.4 / 88.55 (7%) -1.9 / 36.55 (-5%) 16 / 11 (59%) 0.17
2019 6 -2.5 -41% -2.5 / 6 (-41%) / 2 (0%) -1.24

Aaron Watershow: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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Aaron Watershow: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
UFC 149.3 5.9 4% 10.9 / 107.95 (10%) -4.9 / 41.35 (-12%)
Bellator 3.7 3.0 81% 3.0 / 3.7 (81%)
Other 6 -3.8 -64% -3.8 / 6 (-64%)

Aaron Watershow: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 3 (4%) 2 67 % 9.10 1.05 0.35 12%
Slight Favorites 40 (48%) 28 70 % 65.35 16.52 0.41 25%
Slight Underdogs 33 (40%) 11 33 % 34.50 -8.50 -0.26 -25%
Big Underdogs 7 (8%) 2 29 % 5.00 -2.02 -0.29 -40%



Betting Stats By Card Position

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Main Event 8 (10%) 3 38 % 11.75 -3.85 -0.48 -33%
Co-Main Event 8 (10%) 3 38 % 10.50 -3.65 -0.46 -35%
Position 3-5 25 (30%) 16 64 % 33.05 10.14 0.41 31%
6+ (Undercard) 42 (51%) 21 50 % 58.65 4.41 0.10 8%

Aaron Watershow: Profit by Weight Class

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Heavyweight 3 (4%) 2 67 % 3.70 0.35 0.12 9%
Light Heavy 6 (7%) 3 50 % 6.85 -0.75 -0.12 -11%
Middleweight 8 (10%) 4 50 % 10.80 2.10 0.26 19%
Welterweight 8 (10%) 4 50 % 12.00 -1.75 -0.22 -15%
Lightweight 9 (11%) 4 44 % 9.65 -0.90 -0.10 -9%
Featherweight 9 (11%) 5 56 % 12.55 2.38 0.26 19%
Bantamweight 9 (11%) 4 44 % 12.75 -2.85 -0.32 -22%
Flyweight 8 (10%) 5 63 % 12.25 4.10 0.51 33%
               
Women's Fights 23 (28%) 12 52 % 33.40 4.37 0.19 13%
Bantamweight 8 (10%) 4 50 % 11.30 1.20 0.15 11%
Flyweight 9 (11%) 4 44 % 12.65 0.54 0.06 4%
Strawweight 6 (7%) 4 67 % 9.45 2.63 0.44 28%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
Big Favorites 0 (nan%) 0 nan %
Slight Favorites 0 (nan%) 0 nan %
Slight Underdogs 0 (nan%) 0 nan %
Big Underdogs 0 (nan%) 0 nan %
0 0 nan %

 

Props bets and props within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
>65% chance 0 (0%) 0 nan %
50-65% 20 (48%) 9 45 %
35-50% 10 (24%) 5 50 %
<35% chance 12 (29%) 3 25 %
42 17 40 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type Picks Correct % Correct Avg
Odds
Longest
Odds
Shortest
Odds
1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 4 (10%) 2 50 % 2.17 3.80Pick was correct 1.80Pick was incorrect 1.9 (47%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 26 (62%) 12 46 % 1.99 3.50Pick was incorrect 1.57Pick was incorrect -2.2 (-8%)
Does not go to Decision 2 (5%) 1 50 % 2.02 2.05Pick was incorrect 2.00Pick was correct 0.0 (0%)
X Wins by KO 5 (12%) 0 0 % 4.47 10.00Pick was incorrect 1.65Pick was incorrect -5.0 (-100%)
X Wins by Sub 4 (10%) 1 25 % 6.53 7.50Pick was incorrect 5.00Pick was correct 1.0 (25%)
X Wins Inside Distance 1 (2%) 1 100 % 3.00 3.00Pick was correct 3.00Pick was correct 2.0 (200%)
42 17 40 % 2.34     -2.3 (-5%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Aaron Watershow's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date Event Bet Won ROI Fee 1 unit = Start End
18th Oct UFC ESPN 6 2 -0.3 -16% $10.00 $1,000.00 $996.90
26th Oct UFC Fight Night 162 4 -2.2 -54% $9.97 $996.90 $975.30
14th May UFC Fight Night 170 10 -2.6 -26% $9.75 $975.30 $949.45
16th May UFC Fight Night 171 4.15 3.0 72% $9.49 $949.45 $977.94
6th Jun UFC 250 10.2 1.5 15% $9.78 $977.94 $992.60
13th Jun UFC Fight Night 173 2.6 2.0 77% $9.93 $992.60 $1,012.46
20th Jun UFC Fight Night 174 3.7 -1.5 -41% $10.12 $1,012.46 $997.27
27th Jun UFC Fight Night 175 1.65 1.0 61% $9.97 $997.27 $1,007.24
2nd Jul Invicta 40 1.2 -1.2 -100% $10.07 $1,007.24 $995.16
11th Jul UFC 251 9.85 -7.8 -79% $9.95 $995.16 $918.03
15th Jul UFC Fight Island 1 4.4 -1.8 -41% $9.18 $918.03 $901.51
18th Jul UFC Fight Island 2 7.95 2.8 35% $9.02 $901.51 $926.30
25th Jul UFC Fight Island 3 6.2 0.8 12% $9.26 $926.30 $933.25
8th Aug UFC Vegas 6 9.55 1.4 15% $9.33 $933.25 $946.31
15th Aug UFC 252 3.3 -1.3 -39% $9.46 $946.31 $934.01
22nd Aug UFC Vegas 7 3.9 3.0 77% $9.34 $934.01 $962.03
26th Aug DWCS 30 1 -1.0 -100% $9.62 $962.03 $952.41
2nd Sep DWCS 31 1 -1.0 -100% $9.52 $952.41 $942.89
5th Sep UFC Fight Night 183 4 0.8 21% $9.43 $942.89 $950.90
26th Sep UFC 253 3.2 -0.3 -11% $9.51 $950.90 $947.57
4th Oct UFC FN - Holm vs Aldana 4.85 2.1 43% $9.48 $947.57 $967.47
10th Oct UFC FN - Moraes vs Sandhagen 4.25 -4.3 -100% $9.67 $967.47 $926.35
31st Oct UFC Vegas 12 3 -3.0 -100% $9.26 $926.35 $898.56
19th Nov Bellator 253 2.2 2.0 91% $8.99 $898.56 $916.53
29th Nov UFC Vegas 15 4.6 0.3 5% $9.17 $916.53 $918.83
6th Dec UFC Vegas 16 2 2.0 100% $9.19 $918.83 $937.20
11th Dec Bellator 254 1.5 1.0 67% $9.37 $937.20 $946.57
13th Dec UFC 256 6.35 3.4 54% $9.47 $946.57 $978.76
19th Dec UFC Vegas 17 8.5 3.3 39% $9.79 $978.76 $1,011.06
20th Jan UFC on ESPN 20 6.7 3.8 57% $10.11 $1,011.06 $1,049.48
24th Jan UFC 257 6.6 -1.8 -27% $10.49 $1,049.48 $1,030.59
29th Jan LFA 98 1.65 -1.7 -100% $10.31 $1,030.59 $1,013.58
6th Feb UFC FN 4.55 3.3 73% $10.14 $1,013.58 $1,047.29
12th Feb LFA 99 1.15 1.0 87% $10.47 $1,047.29 $1,057.76
14th Feb UFC 258 4.75 0.9 19% $10.58 $1,057.76 $1,067.28
20th Feb UFC Fight Night 185 2.5 -2.5 -100% $10.67 $1,067.28 $1,040.60


ROI % from starting bank balance: 4.06% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Aaron Watershow: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result    
1. Feb '21 Kamaru Usman Gilbert Burns 1.36 2.75 TKO, R3 (0:34) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
2. Feb '21 Fernando Padilla Nate Richardson 1.87 1.15 Split Decision (3 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
3. Feb '21 Danilo Marques Mike Rodriguez 3.00 0.5 Sub, R2 (4:52) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
4. Feb '21 Seung Woo Choi Youssef Zalal 2.95 0.5 U Decision (3 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
5. Feb '21 Alexandre Pantoja Manel Kape 1.91 1.1 U Decision (3 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
6. Jan '21 Makhmud Muradov Andrew Sanchez 1.65 1.55 TKO, R3 (2:59) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
7. Jan '21 Michael Chandler Daniel Hooker 2.25 1 TKO, R1 (2:30) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
8. Jan '21 Matt Schnell Tyson Nam 2.20 1 Split Decision (3 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
9. Jan '21 Dalcha Lungiambula Markus Perez 1.71 1.4 U Decision (3 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
10. Jan '21 Michael Chiesa Neil Magny 2.15 1 U Decision (5 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
11. Dec '20 Pannie Kianzad Sijara Eubanks 2.40 1 U Decision (3 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
12. Dec '20 Jimmy Flick Cody Durden 1.65 3.1 Sub, R1 (3:18) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
13. Dec '20 Marcin Tybura Greg Hardy 2.05 1 TKO, R2 (4:31) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
14. Dec '20 Michel Pereira Kalinn Williams 1.80 1.25 U Decision (3 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
15. Dec '20 Mackenzie Dern Virna Jandiroba 1.63 3.2 U Decision (3 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
16. Dec '20 Cub Swanson Daniel Pineda 2.40 1 TKO, R2 (1:52) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
17. Nov '20 Nathan Maness Luke Sanders 2.35 1 Sub, R2 (2:29) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
18. Nov '20 Bill Algeo Spike Carlyle 2.50 1 U Decision (3 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
19. Oct '20 Loma Lookboonmee Jinh Yu Frey 1.71 1.4 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
20. Oct '20 Carlos Condit Court McGee 2.10 1 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker



Last 20 Losses

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result Hedge?    
1. Feb '21 Shana Dobson Casey O'Neill 2.30 1 TKO, R2 (3:41) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
2. Feb '21 Eddie Wineland John Castaneda 2.05 1 TKO, R1 (4:44) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
3. Feb '21 Brian Kelleher Ricky Simon 3.00 0.5 U Decision (3 rounds) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
4. Feb '21 Maycee Barber Alexa Grasso 2.05 1 U Decision (3 rounds) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
5. Jan '21 J.J. Okanovich Lucas Clay 1.61 1.65 U Decision (3 rounds) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
6. Jan '21 Zhalgas Zhumagulov Amir Albazi 1.91 1.1 U Decision (3 rounds) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
7. Jan '21 Sara McMann Julianna Pena 1.83 1.2 Sub, R3 (3:39) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
8. Dec '20 Alex Morono Anthony Pettis 2.70 1 U Decision (3 rounds) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
9. Dec '20 Gillian Robertson Taila Santos 1.87 1.15 U Decision (3 rounds) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
10. Dec '20 Renato Moicano Rafael Fiziev 2.10 1 TKO, R1 (4:5) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
11. Nov '20 Martin Day Anderson dos Santos 1.63 1.6 Sub, R1 (4:35) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
12. Oct '20 Kevin Natividad Miles Johns 2.30 1 TKO, R3 (2:51) No MMA Bookmaker
13. Oct '20 Andre Fili Bryce Mitchell 2.25 2 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
14. Oct '20 Stephanie Egger Tracy Cortez 2.50 1 U Decision (3 rounds) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
15. Oct '20 Markus Perez Dricus Du Plessis 2.50 1 TKO, R1 (3:22) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
16. Oct '20 Marlon Moraes Cory Sandhagen 2.15 1 TKO, R2 (1:3) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
17. Oct '20 Irene Aldana Holly Holm 2.05 1 U Decision (5 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
18. Sep '20 Montana De La Rosa Viviane Araujo 2.65 1 U Decision (3 rounds) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
19. Sep '20 Alonzo Menifield Ovince St Preux 1.80 1.25 TKO, R2 (4:7) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
20. Sep '20 Cody Brundage William Knight 2.00 1 TKO, R1 (2:23) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Aaron Watershow: Progress Chart

Chart

 

 
 
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