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Profitable MMA Handicappers: 933

 
 
 
   
 

MMA Handicapper Stats: Prof. Speculate

Prof. Speculate (Ldog)


Mixed Martial Arts Management - Prof. Speculate

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MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats

Straight Fight Picks

Props

Parlays

Right 111 (40%) Right 77 (50%) Right 23 (28%) Right 11 (28%)
Wrong 166 (60%) Wrong 78 (50%) Wrong 60 (72%) Wrong 28 (72%)
Avg Odds 2.03 Avg Odds 1.63 Avg Odds 2.81 Avg Odds 3.36
Units Bet 341.1 Units Bet 238.0 Units Bet 57.3 Units Bet 45.9
Avg Bet 1.23 Avg Bet 1.54 Avg Bet 0.69 Avg Bet 1.18
Units Profit -44.84 Units Profit -30.57 Units Profit -9.80 Units Profit -4.46
ROI % -13% ROI % -13% ROI % -17% ROI % -10%
View Handicapper's Profile

Prof. Speculate: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date Event Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
30th May '20 UFC Fight Night 172 0.7 0.5 65% 0.5 / 0.7 (65%)
16th May '20 UFC Fight Night 172 27.2 8.5 31% 8.5 / 27.2 (31%)
14th May '20 UFC Fight Night 171 37.08 -6.5 -18% -6.7 / 33.85 (-20%) 0.2 / 3.23 (5%)
10th May '20 UFC 249 19.4 -8.7 -45% -4.8 / 12.63 (-38%) -4.0 / 6.77 (-58%)
8th Mar '20 UFC 248 18.58 -5.0 -27% -4.3 / 7.95 (-55%) 0.4 / 9.18 (4%) -1.1 / 1.45 (-76%)
29th Feb '20 UFC Fight Night 19.8 -16.1 -81% -9.1 / 10.57 (-86%) -6.0 / 8.23 (-73%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
21st Feb '20 Bellator 239 2.3 1.2 51% 1.2 / 2.3 (51%)
15th Feb '20 UFC Fight Night 167 40.3 -29.1 -72% -19.8 / 31 (-64%) -6.3 / 6.3 (-100%) -3.0 / 3 (-100%)
26th Jan '20 Bellator 238 4 -1.2 -30% -1.2 / 4 (-30%)
25th Jan '20 UFC Fight Night 166 22 1.5 7% -4.7 / 9.25 (-50%) 6.2 / 12.75 (49%)
18th Jan '20 UFC 246 9.03 -3.2 -35% -0.1 / 4.75 (-1%) -2.4 / 3.58 (-68%) -0.7 / 0.7 (-100%)
21st Dec '19 UFC Fight Night 165 20 -4.7 -24% 0.5 / 14 (3%) -0.7 / 1.5 (-48%) -4.5 / 4.5 (-100%)
15th Dec '19 UFC 245 21 -6.2 -29% -3.6 / 11.5 (-31%) 1.9 / 5 (38%) -4.5 / 4.5 (-100%)
7th Dec '19 UFC on ESPN 7 12.25 5.6 46% 2.7 / 5.5 (50%) -1.3 / 1.25 (-100%) 4.2 / 5.5 (76%)
16th Nov '19 UFC Fight Night 164 3 -3.0 -100% -3.0 / 3 (-100%)
9th Nov '19 UFC Fight Night 163 30.5 11.1 36% 4.9 / 18.75 (26%) 5.3 / 6.75 (79%) 0.9 / 5 (18%)
2nd Nov '19 UFC 244 38 3.5 9% -0.6 / 33.5 (-2%) 5.6 / 3 (187%) -1.5 / 1.5 (-100%)
26th Oct '19 UFC Fight Night 162 1 -0.1 -13% -0.1 / 1 (-13%)
5th Oct '19 UFC 243 15 7.2 48% 6.2 / 9.5 (65%) -2.5 / 2.5 (-100%) 3.6 / 3 (119%)


Winning Events: 8 (42%)
Losing Events: 11 (58%)

Average Staked Per Event: 17.95 units
Most Staked On One Event: 40.30 units
Best Event: 11.06 units
Worst Event: -29.10 units
Average Event: -2.36 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 2, Units: 14.54
Max Losing Streak: Events: 4, Units: -36.39

Prof. Speculate: Year on Year Profit

Year Bet Won ROI Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Events
Won / Lost (%)
Profit
Per Event
2020 200.39 -58.2 -29% -40.5 / 144.2 (-28%) -18.1 / 37.29 (-49%) 0.4 / 18.9 (2%) 4 / 7 (36%) -5.29
2019 140.75 13.4 9% 9.9 / 93.75 (11%) 8.3 / 20 (42%) -4.9 / 27 (-18%) 4 / 4 (50%) 1.67

Prof. Speculate: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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Prof. Speculate: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
UFC 334.84 -44.8 -13% -30.5 / 231.65 (-13%) -9.8 / 57.29 (-17%) -4.5 / 45.9 (-10%)
Bellator 6.3 -0.0 -0% -0.0 / 6.3 (-0%)

Prof. Speculate: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 42 (27%) 29 69 % 65.12 -9.31 -0.22 -14%
Slight Favorites 51 (33%) 29 57 % 98.90 10.52 0.21 11%
Slight Underdogs 45 (29%) 16 36 % 60.17 -24.67 -0.55 -41%
Big Underdogs 17 (11%) 2 12 % 13.76 -7.11 -0.42 -52%



Betting Stats By Card Position

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Main Event 14 (9%) 7 50 % 30.50 -4.02 -0.29 -13%
Co-Main Event 16 (10%) 7 44 % 16.40 -4.82 -0.30 -29%
Position 3-5 43 (28%) 20 47 % 67.63 -16.78 -0.39 -25%
6+ (Undercard) 82 (53%) 42 51 % 123.42 -4.95 -0.06 -4%

Prof. Speculate: Profit by Weight Class

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Heavyweight 19 (12%) 8 42 % 25.30 -6.88 -0.36 -27%
Light Heavy 12 (8%) 7 58 % 18.30 -11.56 -0.96 -63%
Middleweight 13 (8%) 8 62 % 20.60 2.33 0.18 11%
Welterweight 28 (18%) 15 54 % 42.36 2.09 0.07 5%
Lightweight 15 (10%) 8 53 % 27.95 10.50 0.70 38%
Featherweight 22 (14%) 9 41 % 35.08 -1.99 -0.09 -6%
Bantamweight 20 (13%) 10 50 % 32.70 -12.22 -0.61 -37%
Flyweight 6 (4%) 2 33 % 20.10 -8.65 -1.44 -43%
               
Women's Fights 20 (13%) 9 45 % 15.56 -4.18 -0.21 -27%
Featherweight 2 (1%) 1 50 % 0.60 -0.49 -0.24 -81%
Bantamweight 6 (4%) 3 50 % 5.10 -1.18 -0.20 -23%
Flyweight 6 (4%) 2 33 % 6.00 -2.72 -0.45 -45%
Strawweight 6 (4%) 3 50 % 3.86 0.21 0.03 5%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
Big Favorites 64 (60%) 53 83 %
Slight Favorites 31 (29%) 12 39 %
Slight Underdogs 11 (10%) 3 27 %
Big Underdogs 0 (0%) 0 nan %
106 68 64 %

 

Props bets and props within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
>65% chance 20 (19%) 11 55 %
50-65% 19 (18%) 7 37 %
35-50% 21 (20%) 9 43 %
<35% chance 45 (43%) 8 18 %
105 35 33 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type Picks Correct % Correct Avg
Odds
Longest
Odds
Shortest
Odds
1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 7 (7%) 6 86 % 1.57 2.63Pick was correct 1.22Pick was incorrect 3.7 (52%)
Goes to Decision 18 (17%) 13 72 % 1.55 2.45Pick was correct 1.22Pick was correct 3.6 (20%)
Does not go to Decision 5 (5%) 2 40 % 1.49 1.95Pick was incorrect 1.25Pick was correct -2.5 (-50%)
X Wins by KO 15 (14%) 4 27 % 3.40 8.50Pick was incorrect 1.50Pick was incorrect 0.0 (0%)
X Wins by Sub 3 (3%) 1 33 % 3.16 10.00Pick was incorrect 1.62Pick was correct -1.4 (-46%)
X Wins by Decision 22 (21%) 3 14 % 2.82 10.00Pick was incorrect 1.73Pick was incorrect -14.5 (-66%)
Others 35 (33%) 6 17 % 2.86 14.00Pick was incorrect 1.33Pick was correct -18.2 (-52%)
105 35 33 % 2.35     -29.2 (-28%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Prof. Speculate's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date Event Bet Won ROI Fee 1 unit = Start End
5th Oct UFC 243 15 7.2 48% $10.00 $1,000.00 $1,072.42
26th Oct UFC Fight Night 162 1 -0.1 -13% $10.72 $1,072.42 $1,070.97
2nd Nov UFC 244 38 3.5 9% $10.71 $1,070.97 $1,108.19
9th Nov UFC Fight Night 163 30.5 11.1 36% $11.08 $1,108.19 $1,230.75
16th Nov UFC Fight Night 164 3 -3.0 -100% $12.31 $1,230.75 $1,193.83
7th Dec UFC on ESPN 7 12.25 5.6 46% $11.94 $1,193.83 $1,261.14
15th Dec UFC 245 21 -6.2 -29% $12.61 $1,261.14 $1,183.33
21st Dec UFC Fight Night 165 20 -4.7 -24% $11.83 $1,183.33 $1,127.24
18th Jan UFC 246 9.03 -3.2 -35% $11.27 $1,127.24 $1,091.39
25th Jan UFC Fight Night 166 22 1.5 7% $10.91 $1,091.39 $1,108.26
26th Jan Bellator 238 4 -1.2 -30% $11.08 $1,108.26 $1,094.96
15th Feb UFC Fight Night 167 40.3 -29.1 -72% $10.95 $1,094.96 $776.32
21st Feb Bellator 239 2.3 1.2 51% $7.76 $776.32 $785.44
29th Feb UFC Fight Night 19.8 -16.1 -81% $7.85 $785.44 $658.80
8th Mar UFC 248 18.58 -5.0 -27% $6.59 $658.80 $625.59
10th May UFC 249 19.4 -8.7 -45% $6.26 $625.59 $571.00
14th May UFC Fight Night 171 37.08 -6.5 -18% $5.71 $571.00 $533.91
16th May UFC Fight Night 172 27.2 8.5 31% $5.34 $533.91 $579.20
30th May UFC Fight Night 172 0.7 0.5 65% $5.79 $579.20 $581.84


ROI % from starting bank balance: -41.82% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Prof. Speculate: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result    
1. May '20 Billy Quarantillo Spike Carlyle 1.62 0.1 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
2. May '20 Brandon Royval Tim Elliott 2.50 0.1 Sub, R2 (3:18) MMA Bookmaker
3. May '20 Casey Kenney Louis Smolka 1.33 0.1 Sub, R1 (3:3) MMA Bookmaker
4. May '20 Jamahal Hill Klidson Farias de Abreu 1.73 0.1 TKO, R1 (1:51) MMA Bookmaker
5. May '20 Roosevelt Roberts Brok Weaver 1.30 0.1 Sub, R2 (3:26) MMA Bookmaker
6. May '20 Mackenzie Dern Hannah Cifers 1.25 0.1 Sub, R1 (2:36) MMA Bookmaker
7. May '20 Augusto Sakai Blagoy Ivanov 1.83 0.1 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
8. May '20 Miguel Baeza Matt Brown 1.73 5 TKO, R2 (0:18) MMA Bookmaker
9. May '20 Nate Landwehr Darren Elkins 2.10 1 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
10. May '20 Kevin Holland Anthony Hernandez 1.90 1.5 TKO, R1 (0:39) MMA Bookmaker
11. May '20 Giga Chikadze Irwin Rivera 1.28 0.1 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
12. May '20 Krzysztof Jotko Eryk Anders 1.67 0.5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
13. May '20 Yadong Song Marlon Vera 1.53 7.5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
14. May '20 Claudia Gadelha Angela Hill 1.44 0.1 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
15. May '20 Rodrigo Nascimento Ferreira Don'tale Mayes 1.90 5 Sub, R2 (2:5) MMA Bookmaker
16. May '20 Omar Morales Gabriel Benitez 1.57 5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
17. May '20 Sijara Eubanks Sarah Moras 1.29 0.1 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
18. May '20 Drew Dober Alexander Hernandez 1.80 5 TKO, R2 (4:25) MMA Bookmaker
19. May '20 Ricky Simon Ray Borg 1.62 5 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
20. May '20 Ben Rothwell Ovince St Preux 2.10 1 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker



Last 20 Losses

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result Hedge?    
1. May '20 Walt Harris Alistair Overeem 1.73 2.5 TKO, R2 (3:0) No MMA Bookmaker
2. May '20 Mara Romero Borella Cortney Casey 2.25 1 Sub, R1 (3:36) No MMA Bookmaker
3. May '20 Edson Barboza Dan Ige 1.67 3 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
4. May '20 Ike Villanueva Chase Sherman 2.25 0.75 TKO, R2 (0:49) No MMA Bookmaker
5. May '20 Hunter Azure Brian Kelleher 1.50 5 TKO, R2 (3:40) No MMA Bookmaker
6. May '20 Michael Johnson Thiago Moises 1.90 2 Sub, R2 (0:25) No MMA Bookmaker
7. May '20 Philipe Lins Andrei Arlovski 1.53 5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
8. May '20 Anthony Smith Glover Teixeira 1.50 5 TKO, R5 (1:4) No MMA Bookmaker
9. May '20 Michelle Waterson Carla Esparza 2.20 0.33 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
10. May '20 Donald Cerrone Anthony Pettis 2.25 0.33 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
11. May '20 Jeremy Stephens Calvin Kattar 3.25 0.33 TKO, R2 (2:42) No MMA Bookmaker
12. May '20 Charles Rosa Bryce Mitchell 2.50 1.25 U Decision (3 rounds) Yes MMA Bookmaker
13. May '20 Michelle Waterson Carla Esparza 2.20 0.33 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
14. May '20 Donald Cerrone Anthony Pettis 2.25 0.33 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
15. May '20 Jeremy Stephens Calvin Kattar 3.25 0.33 TKO, R2 (2:42) No MMA Bookmaker
16. May '20 Jairzinho Rozenstruik Francis Ngannou 3.25 3 TKO, R1 (0:20) No MMA Bookmaker
17. May '20 Yorgan De Castro Greg Hardy 2.75 1.5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
18. May '20 Dominick Cruz Henry Cejudo 2.75 2 TKO, R2 (4:58) Yes MMA Bookmaker
19. Mar '20 Austin Hubbard Mark O. Madsen 2.75 2 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
20. Mar '20 Max Griffin Alex Oliveira 2.20 1 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Prof. Speculate: Progress Chart

Chart

 

 
 
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