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MMA Handicapper Stats: Mir Theory

Mir Theory (MirTheory)


Mixed Martial Arts Management - Mir Theory

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MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats

Straight Fight Picks

Props

Parlays

Right 39 (57%) Right 30 (57%) Right 0 (0%) Right 9 (56%)
Wrong 30 (43%) Wrong 23 (43%) Wrong 0 (0%) Wrong 7 (44%)
Avg Odds 1.90 Avg Odds 1.90 Avg Odds 0.00 Avg Odds 1.90
Units Bet 248.0 Units Bet 192.0 Units Bet 0.0 Units Bet 56.0
Avg Bet 3.59 Avg Bet 3.62 Avg Bet 0.00 Avg Bet 3.50
Units Profit 16.99 Units Profit 17.21 Units Profit 0.00 Units Profit -0.22
ROI % 7% ROI % 9% ROI % 0% ROI % -0%
View Handicapper's Profile

Mir Theory: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date Event Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
22nd Jun '19 UFC Fight Night 154 10.5 1.5 14% 1.5 / 10.5 (14%)
22nd Jun '19 Bellator London 2.5 -2.5 -100% -2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)
14th Jun '19 Bellator 222 5.5 0.6 10% 0.6 / 5.5 (10%)
1st Jun '19 UFC Fight Night 153 7.5 -1.8 -24% 2.2 / 3.5 (63%) -4.0 / 4 (-100%)
18th May '19 UFC Fight Night 152 12 -6.4 -53% -2.5 / 2.5 (-100%) -3.9 / 9.5 (-41%)
11th May '19 UFC 237 7 0.5 7% 0.5 / 7 (7%)
4th May '19 UFC Fight Night 150 8.5 8.9 105% 8.9 / 8.5 (105%)
27th Apr '19 Bellator 220 3 1.2 41% 1.2 / 3 (41%)
27th Apr '19 UFC on ESPN 3 15 -4.1 -27% -6.2 / 13 (-47%) 2.1 / 2 (104%)
20th Apr '19 UFC Fight Night 149 5.5 5.8 106% 5.8 / 5.5 (106%)
13th Apr '19 UFC 236 24.5 -9.9 -41% -7.4 / 22 (-34%) -2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)
30th Mar '19 UFC on ESPN 2 17.5 4.2 24% 1.1 / 14.5 (8%) 3.1 / 3 (103%)
23rd Mar '19 UFC Fight Night 148 12 3.1 26% 4.7 / 3.5 (135%) -1.6 / 8.5 (-19%)
16th Mar '19 UFC Fight Night 147 17 -3.0 -17% 1.0 / 13 (8%) -4.0 / 4 (-100%)
9th Mar '19 UFC Fight Night 146 13.5 -7.4 -55% -3.9 / 10 (-39%) -3.5 / 3.5 (-100%)
2nd Mar '19 UFC 235 7 0.9 13% -3.0 / 3 (-100%) 3.9 / 4 (97%)
23rd Feb '19 UFC Fight Night 145 6.5 6.1 94% 6.1 / 6.5 (94%)
17th Feb '19 UFC on ESPN 1 28 0.6 2% -5.3 / 21 (-25%) 5.9 / 7 (85%)
9th Feb '19 UFC 234 8 0.1 1% -3.0 / 3 (-100%) 3.1 / 5 (61%)
2nd Feb '19 UFC Fight Night 144 17 13.8 81% 13.8 / 17 (81%)
19th Jan '19 UFC on ESPN+ 1 20 4.7 24% 4.7 / 20 (24%)


Winning Events: 14 (67%)
Losing Events: 7 (33%)

Average Staked Per Event: 11.81 units
Most Staked On One Event: 28.00 units
Best Event: 13.81 units
Worst Event: -9.93 units
Average Event: 0.81 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 6, Units: 26.26
Max Losing Streak: Events: 2, Units: -10.34

Mir Theory: Year on Year Profit

Year Bet Won ROI Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Events
Won / Lost (%)
Profit
Per Event
2019 248 17.0 7% 17.2 / 192 (9%) -0.2 / 56 (-0%) 14 / 7 (67%) 0.81

Mir Theory: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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Mir Theory: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
UFC 237 17.7 7% 19.1 / 184 (10%) -1.4 / 53 (-3%)
Bellator 11 -0.7 -6% -1.9 / 8 (-24%) 1.2 / 3 (41%)

Mir Theory: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 9 (17%) 6 67 % 41.00 -2.64 -0.29 -6%
Slight Favorites 23 (43%) 14 61 % 90.00 10.50 0.46 12%
Slight Underdogs 18 (34%) 9 50 % 54.50 10.23 0.57 19%
Big Underdogs 3 (6%) 1 33 % 6.50 -0.88 -0.29 -13%



Betting Stats By Card Position

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Main Event 11 (21%) 6 55 % 46.50 -3.27 -0.30 -7%
Co-Main Event 8 (15%) 5 63 % 28.50 6.55 0.82 23%
Position 3-5 16 (30%) 11 69 % 54.50 18.70 1.17 34%
6+ (Undercard) 18 (34%) 8 44 % 62.50 -4.77 -0.26 -8%

Mir Theory: Profit by Weight Class

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Heavyweight 4 (8%) 3 75 % 15.50 1.18 0.29 8%
Light Heavy 7 (13%) 5 71 % 24.50 10.41 1.49 43%
Middleweight 5 (9%) 4 80 % 20.50 6.71 1.34 33%
Welterweight 9 (17%) 4 44 % 34.50 -5.04 -0.56 -15%
Lightweight 8 (15%) 5 63 % 32.00 2.90 0.36 9%
Featherweight 5 (9%) 1 20 % 14.00 -5.20 -1.04 -37%
Bantamweight 6 (11%) 4 67 % 21.00 7.52 1.25 36%
Flyweight 4 (8%) 2 50 % 16.00 -0.38 -0.09 -2%
               
Women's Fights 5 (9%) 2 40 % 14.00 -0.90 -0.18 -6%
Bantamweight 1 (2%) 0 % 3.50 -3.50 -3.50 -100%
Bantamweight 2 (4%) 1 50 % 4.00 1.62 0.81 41%
Strawweight 2 (4%) 1 50 % 6.50 0.98 0.49 15%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
Big Favorites 24 (77%) 19 79 %
Slight Favorites 7 (23%) 3 43 %
Slight Underdogs 0 (0%) 0 0 %
Big Underdogs 0 (0%) 0 0 %
31 22 71 %

 

Props bets and props within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
>65% chance 1 (100%) 1 100 %
50-65% 0 (0%) 0 0 %
35-50% 0 (0%) 0 0 %
<35% chance 0 (0%) 0 0 %
1 1 100 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type Picks Correct % Correct Avg
Odds
Longest
Odds
Shortest
Odds
1U Bet (ROI %)
X Wins Inside Distance 1 (100%) 1 100 % 1.28 1.28Pick was correct 1.28Pick was correct 0.3 (28%)
1 1 100 % 1.28     0.3 (28%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Mir Theory's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date Event Bet Won ROI Fee 1 unit = Start End
19th Jan UFC on ESPN+ 1 20 4.7 24% $10.00 $1,000.00 $1,047.50
2nd Feb UFC Fight Night 144 17 13.8 81% $10.47 $1,047.50 $1,192.16
9th Feb UFC 234 8 0.1 1% $11.92 $1,192.16 $1,192.78
17th Feb UFC on ESPN 1 28 0.6 2% $11.93 $1,192.78 $1,200.04
23rd Feb UFC Fight Night 145 6.5 6.1 94% $12.00 $1,200.04 $1,273.72
2nd Mar UFC 235 7 0.9 13% $12.74 $1,273.72 $1,285.13
9th Mar UFC Fight Night 146 13.5 -7.4 -55% $12.85 $1,285.13 $1,190.29
16th Mar UFC Fight Night 147 17 -3.0 -17% $11.90 $1,190.29 $1,155.06
23rd Mar UFC Fight Night 148 12 3.1 26% $11.55 $1,155.06 $1,191.23
30th Mar UFC on ESPN 2 17.5 4.2 24% $11.91 $1,191.23 $1,241.25
13th Apr UFC 236 24.5 -9.9 -41% $12.41 $1,241.25 $1,117.99
20th Apr UFC Fight Night 149 5.5 5.8 106% $11.18 $1,117.99 $1,182.89
27th Apr UFC on ESPN 3 15 -4.1 -27% $11.83 $1,182.89 $1,134.35
27th Apr Bellator 220 3 1.2 41% $11.34 $1,134.35 $1,148.30
4th May UFC Fight Night 150 8.5 8.9 105% $11.48 $1,148.30 $1,250.79
11th May UFC 237 7 0.5 7% $12.51 $1,250.79 $1,256.79
18th May UFC Fight Night 152 12 -6.4 -53% $12.57 $1,256.79 $1,176.32
1st Jun UFC Fight Night 153 7.5 -1.8 -24% $11.76 $1,176.32 $1,155.20
14th Jun Bellator 222 5.5 0.6 10% $11.55 $1,155.20 $1,161.84
22nd Jun Bellator London 2.5 -2.5 -100% $11.62 $1,161.84 $1,132.80
22nd Jun UFC Fight Night 154 10.5 1.5 14% $11.33 $1,132.80 $1,149.34


ROI % from starting bank balance: 14.93% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Mir Theory: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result    
1. Jun '19 Jairzinho Rozenstruik Allen Crowder 1.50 4 TKO, R1 (0:9) MMA Bookmaker
2. Jun '19 Kevin Holland Alessio Di Chirico 1.49 4 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
3. Jun '19 Kyoji Horiguchi Darrion Caldwell 2.43 2.5 U Decision (5 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
4. Jun '19 Leonardo Santos Stevie Ray 1.63 3.5 TKO, R1 (2:17) MMA Bookmaker
5. May '19 Jessica Andrade Rose Namajunas 1.87 4 TKO, R2 (2:58) MMA Bookmaker
6. May '19 Derek Brunson Elias Theodorou 2.05 4 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
7. May '19 Donald Cerrone Al Iaquinta 2.05 4.5 U Decision (5 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
8. Apr '19 Glover Teixeira Ion Cutelaba 1.95 3.5 Sub, R2 (3:37) MMA Bookmaker
9. Apr '19 Alistair Overeem Aleksei Oleinik 1.42 4 TKO, R1 (4:45) MMA Bookmaker
10. Apr '19 Roxanne Modafferi Antonina Shevchenko 3.75 1.5 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
11. Apr '19 Belal Muhammad Curtis Millender 1.73 4 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
12. Apr '19 Israel Adesanya Kelvin Gastelum 1.70 4.5 U Decision (5 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
13. Mar '19 Paul Craig Kennedy Nzechukwu 2.50 1.5 Sub, R3 (4:20) MMA Bookmaker
14. Mar '19 Jack Hermansson David Branch 1.80 3 Sub, R1 (0:49) MMA Bookmaker
15. Mar '19 Justin Gaethje Edson Barboza 2.15 3 TKO, R1 (2:30) MMA Bookmaker
16. Mar '19 Jussier Formiga Deiveson Figueiredo 2.35 3.5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
17. Mar '19 Claudio Silva Danny Roberts 1.71 4 Sub, R3 (2:37) MMA Bookmaker
18. Mar '19 Dominick Reyes Volkan Oezdemir 1.44 5 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
19. Mar '19 Beneil Dariush Drew Dober 1.53 4 Sub, R2 (4:41) MMA Bookmaker
20. Feb '19 Stefan Struve Marcos Rogerio de Lima 2.00 2.5 Sub, R2 (2:21) MMA Bookmaker



Last 20 Losses

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result Hedge?    
1. Jun '19 Montana De La Rosa Andrea Lee 2.75 2.5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
2. Jun '19 Erick Silva Paul Daley 3.63 2.5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
3. Jun '19 Neiman Gracie Rory MacDonald 2.60 3 U Decision (5 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
4. May '19 Mike Trizano Grant Dawson 2.50 2.5 Sub, R2 (2:27) No MMA Bookmaker
5. May '19 Jose Aldo Alex Volkanovski 1.80 3 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
6. Apr '19 Court McGee Dhiego Lima 1.63 4.5 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
7. Apr '19 Ronaldo Souza Jack Hermansson 1.50 5 U Decision (5 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
8. Apr '19 Boston Salmon Khalid Taha 1.73 3.5 TKO, R1 (0:25) No MMA Bookmaker
9. Apr '19 Ovince St Preux Nikita Krylov 2.00 2.5 Sub, R2 (2:30) No MMA Bookmaker
10. Apr '19 Wilson Reis Alexandre Pantoja 2.40 2.5 TKO, R1 (2:58) No MMA Bookmaker
11. Apr '19 Max Holloway Dustin Poirier 1.53 5 U Decision (5 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
12. Mar '19 Karolina Kowalkiewicz Michelle Waterson 1.74 2.5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
13. Mar '19 Enrique Barzola Kevin Aguilar 1.83 3 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
14. Mar '19 Sheymon da Silva Moraes Sodiq Yusuff 2.30 1.5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
15. Mar '19 Gunnar Nelson Leon Edwards 2.30 4 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
16. Mar '19 Marion Reneau Yana Kunitskaya 2.70 3.5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
17. Mar '19 Sergio Moraes Tony Martin 3.00 2.5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
18. Mar '19 Misha Cirkunov Johnny Walker 2.40 3 TKO, R1 (0:36) No MMA Bookmaker
19. Feb '19 Scott Holtzman Nik Lentz 1.56 4 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
20. Feb '19 James Vick Paul Felder 1.96 4 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Mir Theory: Progress Chart

Chart

 

 
 
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