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MMA Handicapper Stats: DanShot Insight

DanShot Insight (DanShotInsight)


Mixed Martial Arts Management - DanShot Insight

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MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats

Straight Fight Picks

Props

Parlays

Right 47 (40%) Right 26 (46%) Right 18 (36%) Right 3 (27%)
Wrong 71 (60%) Wrong 31 (54%) Wrong 32 (64%) Wrong 8 (73%)
Avg Odds 2.36 Avg Odds 1.93 Avg Odds 3.08 Avg Odds 2.54
Units Bet 249.9 Units Bet 145.5 Units Bet 83.9 Units Bet 20.5
Avg Bet 2.12 Avg Bet 2.55 Avg Bet 1.68 Avg Bet 1.86
Units Profit -24.44 Units Profit -22.87 Units Profit 4.20 Units Profit -5.77
ROI % -10% ROI % -16% ROI % 5% ROI % -28%
View Handicapper's Profile

DanShot Insight: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date Event Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
4th May '19 UFC Fight Night 150 26.4 -3.3 -12% -5.1 / 13.5 (-38%) 1.8 / 12.9 (14%)
4th May '19 Bellator Birmingham 1 -1.0 -100% -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
17th Feb '19 UFC on ESPN 1 6 -1.5 -25% -2.0 / 2 (-100%) 0.5 / 4 (13%)
2nd Feb '19 UFC Fight Night 144 10 3.6 36% -2.0 / 2 (-100%) 5.6 / 8 (70%)
29th Dec '18 UFC 232 14 -14.0 -100% -5.0 / 5 (-100%) -9.0 / 9 (-100%)
15th Dec '18 Fight Night Milwaukee 23 -4.9 -21% 2.6 / 9 (29%) -2.5 / 9 (-28%) -5.0 / 5 (-100%)
8th Dec '18 UFC 231 18.5 0.8 4% 1.3 / 11 (12%) 1.5 / 5.5 (27%) -2.0 / 2 (-100%)
8th Dec '18 Cage Warriors 100 3 -0.8 -27% -0.8 / 3 (-27%)
1st Dec '18 UFC Fight Night 142 12 -3.8 -32% -3.1 / 7 (-44%) -0.7 / 5 (-14%)
24th Nov '18 UFC Fight Night 141 4.5 2.0 44% 3.5 / 3 (117%) -1.5 / 1.5 (-100%)
17th Nov '18 UFC Fight Night 140 17.5 12.8 73% 5.0 / 5 (99%) 6.0 / 9.5 (63%) 1.8 / 3 (60%)
10th Nov '18 UFC Fight Night Denver 26.5 -11.9 -45% -12.1 / 21 (-58%) 1.2 / 4.5 (27%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
3rd Nov '18 UFC 230 30 2.4 8% 2.1 / 18.5 (11%) -2.6 / 7 (-37%) 2.9 / 4.5 (64%)
27th Oct '18 UFC Fight Night 138 10 -4.0 -40% -4.0 / 10 (-40%)
13th Oct '18 Bellator 208 2 1.8 91% 1.8 / 2 (91%)
6th Oct '18 UFC 229 22 -6.5 -30% -5.5 / 13.5 (-41%) 2.5 / 5 (50%) -3.5 / 3.5 (-100%)
29th Sep '18 Bellator 206 4.5 2.4 53% 1.3 / 3 (44%) 1.1 / 1.5 (71%)
22nd Sep '18 UFC Fight Night Sao Paulo 19 1.5 8% 0.1 / 16 (1%) 1.4 / 3 (47%)


Winning Events: 8 (44%)
Losing Events: 10 (56%)

Average Staked Per Event: 13.88 units
Most Staked On One Event: 30.00 units
Best Event: 12.75 units
Worst Event: -14.00 units
Average Event: -1.36 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 2, Units: 14.75
Max Losing Streak: Events: 3, Units: -18.93

DanShot Insight: Year on Year Profit

Year Bet Won ROI Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Events
Won / Lost (%)
Profit
Per Event
2019 43.4 -2.2 -5% -10.1 / 18.5 (-54%) 7.9 / 24.9 (32%) 1 / 3 (25%) -0.54
2018 206.5 -22.3 -11% -12.8 / 127 (-10%) -3.7 / 59 (-6%) -5.8 / 20.5 (-28%) 7 / 7 (50%) -1.59

DanShot Insight: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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DanShot Insight: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
UFC 239.4 -26.9 -11% -24.2 / 136.5 (-18%) 4.2 / 83.9 (5%) -6.8 / 19 (-36%)
Bellator 7.5 3.2 43% 2.1 / 6 (36%) 1.1 / 1.5 (71%)
Other 3 -0.8 -27% -0.8 / 3 (-27%)

DanShot Insight: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 12 (21%) 9 75 % 45.00 1.08 0.09 2%
Slight Favorites 20 (35%) 8 40 % 53.50 -17.19 -0.86 -32%
Slight Underdogs 14 (25%) 6 43 % 27.50 -5.52 -0.39 -20%
Big Underdogs 11 (19%) 3 27 % 19.50 -1.24 -0.11 -6%



Betting Stats By Card Position

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Main Event 8 (14%) 3 38 % 22.00 -4.94 -0.62 -22%
Co-Main Event 7 (12%) 5 71 % 19.00 4.79 0.68 25%
Position 3-5 16 (28%) 7 44 % 43.00 -9.49 -0.59 -22%
6+ (Undercard) 25 (44%) 10 40 % 58.50 -15.24 -0.61 -26%

DanShot Insight: Profit by Weight Class

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Heavyweight 2 (4%) 1 50 % 5.00 1.50 0.75 30%
Light Heavy 7 (12%) 2 29 % 18.00 -8.61 -1.23 -48%
Middleweight 7 (12%) 4 57 % 19.50 -0.21 -0.03 -1%
Welterweight 8 (14%) 4 50 % 19.00 0.61 0.08 3%
Lightweight 7 (12%) 3 43 % 15.00 -7.03 -1.00 -47%
Featherweight 9 (16%) 5 56 % 23.50 1.70 0.19 7%
Bantamweight 6 (11%) 3 50 % 14.00 -1.12 -0.19 -8%
Flyweight 1 (2%) 0 % 3.00 -3.00 -3.00 -100%
               
Women's Fights 10 (18%) 4 40 % 28.50 -6.71 -0.67 -24%
Bantamweight 3 (5%) 2 67 % 6.50 1.65 0.55 25%
Bantamweight 1 (2%) 1 100 % 5.00 1.80 1.80 36%
Strawweight 6 (11%) 1 17 % 17.00 -10.16 -1.69 -60%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
Big Favorites 17 (71%) 13 76 %
Slight Favorites 5 (21%) 3 60 %
Slight Underdogs 2 (8%) 1 50 %
Big Underdogs 0 (0%) 0 0 %
24 17 71 %

 

Props bets and props within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
>65% chance 5 (9%) 5 100 %
50-65% 11 (20%) 4 36 %
35-50% 8 (15%) 5 63 %
<35% chance 31 (56%) 7 23 %
55 21 38 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type Picks Correct % Correct Avg
Odds
Longest
Odds
Shortest
Odds
1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 8 (15%) 3 38 % 1.91 2.95Pick was incorrect 1.50Pick was correct -2.7 (-34%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 3 (5%) 2 67 % 1.85 2.00Pick was correct 1.73Pick was correct 0.7 (24%)
Goes to Decision 1 (2%) 1 100 % 2.20 2.20Pick was correct 2.20Pick was correct 1.2 (120%)
Does not go to Decision 3 (5%) 3 100 % 1.39 1.47Pick was correct 1.30Pick was correct 1.2 (39%)
X Wins by KO 11 (20%) 5 45 % 2.92 10.00Pick was incorrect 1.50Pick was correct 3.8 (35%)
X Wins by Sub 7 (13%) 1 14 % 6.55 14.00Pick was incorrect 3.75Pick was correct -3.3 (-46%)
X Wins by Decision 5 (9%) 1 20 % 3.24 7.50Pick was incorrect 1.67Pick was incorrect -1.8 (-36%)
X Wins Inside Distance 9 (16%) 2 22 % 3.85 11.00Pick was incorrect 2.15Pick was correct -0.7 (-7%)
X Wins in Round X 1 (2%) 0 0 % 11.75 11.75Pick was incorrect 11.75Pick was incorrect -1.0 (-100%)
Others 7 (13%) 3 43 % 3.13 9.00Pick was incorrect 1.73Pick was correct 1.1 (16%)
55 21 38 % 2.83     -1.4 (-3%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail DanShot Insight's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date Event Bet Won ROI Fee 1 unit = Start End
22nd Sep UFC Fight Night Sao Paulo 19 1.5 8% $10.00 $1,000.00 $1,015.19
29th Sep Bellator 206 4.5 2.4 53% $10.15 $1,015.19 $1,039.45
6th Oct UFC 229 22 -6.5 -30% $10.39 $1,039.45 $971.99
13th Oct Bellator 208 2 1.8 91% $9.72 $971.99 $989.68
27th Oct UFC Fight Night 138 10 -4.0 -40% $9.90 $989.68 $950.09
3rd Nov UFC 230 30 2.4 8% $9.50 $950.09 $972.49
10th Nov UFC Fight Night Denver 26.5 -11.9 -45% $9.72 $972.49 $857.06
17th Nov UFC Fight Night 140 17.5 12.8 73% $8.57 $857.06 $966.36
24th Nov UFC Fight Night 141 4.5 2.0 44% $9.66 $966.36 $985.69
1st Dec UFC Fight Night 142 12 -3.8 -32% $9.86 $985.69 $948.23
8th Dec Cage Warriors 100 3 -0.8 -27% $9.48 $948.23 $940.64
8th Dec UFC 231 18.5 0.8 4% $9.41 $940.64 $948.08
15th Dec Fight Night Milwaukee 23 -4.9 -21% $9.48 $948.08 $901.30
29th Dec UFC 232 14 -14.0 -100% $9.01 $901.30 $775.12
2nd Feb UFC Fight Night 144 10 3.6 36% $7.75 $775.12 $803.02
17th Feb UFC on ESPN 1 6 -1.5 -25% $8.03 $803.02 $790.98
4th May Bellator Birmingham 1 -1.0 -100% $7.91 $790.98 $783.07
4th May UFC Fight Night 150 26.4 -3.3 -12% $7.83 $783.07 $757.40


ROI % from starting bank balance: -24.26% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

DanShot Insight: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result    
1. May '19 Andrew Sanchez Marc-Andre Barriault 1.62 1.5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
2. May '19 Nordine Taleb Kyle Prepolec 1.32 3 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
3. May '19 Cole Smith Mitch Gagnon 2.04 1 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
4. Dec '18 Rob Font Sergio Pettis 1.66 4 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
5. Dec '18 Charles Oliveira Jim Miller 1.33 2 Sub, R1 (1:15) MMA Bookmaker
6. Dec '18 Joaquim Silva Jared Gordon 2.30 1 TKO, R3 (2:39) MMA Bookmaker
7. Dec '18 Dean Trueman Aiden Lee 2.20 1 TKO, R3 (3:36) MMA Bookmaker
8. Dec '18 Valentina Shevchenko Joanna Jedrzejczyk 1.36 5 U Decision (5 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
9. Dec '18 Max Holloway Brian Ortega 1.83 3 TKO, R4 (5:0) MMA Bookmaker
10. Dec '18 Alexey Kunchenko Yushin Okami 1.30 3 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
11. Nov '18 Ricardo Lamas Darren Elkins 1.57 3 TKO, R3 (4:9) MMA Bookmaker
12. Nov '18 Ian Heinisch Cezar Ferreira 2.62 2 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
13. Nov '18 Donald Cerrone Mike Perry 2.88 2 Sub, R1 (4:46) MMA Bookmaker
14. Nov '18 Germaine de Randamie Raquel Pennington 1.57 2 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
15. Nov '18 Shane Burgos Kurt Holobaugh 1.36 5 Sub, R1 (2:11) MMA Bookmaker
16. Nov '18 Sheymon da Silva Moraes Julio Arce 4.00 1.5 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
17. Nov '18 Israel Adesanya Derek Brunson 1.30 6 TKO, R1 (4:51) MMA Bookmaker
18. Oct '18 Sean Strickland Nordine Taleb 2.00 3 TKO, R2 (3:10) MMA Bookmaker
19. Oct '18 Anatoly Tokov Alexander Shlemenko 1.91 2 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
20. Nov '18 Francis Ngannou Curtis Blaydes 3.25 2 TKO, R1 (0:45) MMA Bookmaker



Last 20 Losses

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result Hedge?    
1. May '19 Brad Katona Merab Dvalishvili 2.62 2 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
2. May '19 Kyle Nelson Matt Sayles 2.90 1 Sub, R3 (3:16) No MMA Bookmaker
3. May '19 Elias Theodorou Derek Brunson 1.91 2 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
4. May '19 Al Iaquinta Donald Cerrone 1.85 3 U Decision (5 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
5. May '19 Tim Wilde Brent Primus 4.50 1 Sub, R1 (1:20) No MMA Bookmaker
6. Feb '19 Alexandra Albu Emily Whitmire 1.91 2 Sub, R1 (1:1) No MMA Bookmaker
7. Feb '19 Lyman Good Demian Maia 2.50 2 Sub, R1 (2:38) No MMA Bookmaker
8. Dec '18 Siyar Bahadurzada Curtis Millender 2.18 2 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
9. Dec '18 Andre Ewell Nathaniel Wood 2.10 3 Sub, R3 (4:12) No MMA Bookmaker
10. Dec '18 Adam Milstead Mike Rodriguez 1.78 2 TKO, R1 (2:59) No MMA Bookmaker
11. Dec '18 Mike Ekundayo Jack Shore 3.00 2 TKO, R3 (4:7) No MMA Bookmaker
12. Dec '18 Claudia Gadelha Nina Ansaroff 1.40 3 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
13. Dec '18 Paul Craig Jim Crute 3.40 2 Sub, R3 (4:51) No MMA Bookmaker
14. Dec '18 Jake Matthews Tony Martin 1.91 2 Sub, R3 (1:19) No MMA Bookmaker
15. Nov '18 Syuri Kondo Yan Xiaonan 5.25 1 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
16. Nov '18 Hannah Cifers Maycee Barber 4.55 3 TKO, R2 (2:1) No MMA Bookmaker
17. Nov '18 Thiago Moises Beneil Dariush 2.30 3 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
18. Nov '18 Luis Pena Mike Trizano 1.61 3 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
19. Nov '18 Chan Sung Jung Yair Rodriguez 1.98 5 TKO, R5 (4:59) No MMA Bookmaker
20. Nov '18 Joseph Morales Eric Shelton 1.91 3 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

DanShot Insight: Progress Chart

Chart

 

 
 
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