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MMA Handicapper Stats: DanShot Insight

DanShot Insight (DanShotInsight)


Mixed Martial Arts Management - DanShot Insight

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MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats

Straight Fight Picks

Props

Parlays

Right 71 (44%) Right 46 (52%) Right 22 (35%) Right 3 (25%)
Wrong 92 (56%) Wrong 43 (48%) Wrong 40 (65%) Wrong 9 (75%)
Avg Odds 2.30 Avg Odds 1.97 Avg Odds 2.93 Avg Odds 2.68
Units Bet 355.4 Units Bet 211.5 Units Bet 121.4 Units Bet 22.5
Avg Bet 2.18 Avg Bet 2.38 Avg Bet 1.96 Avg Bet 1.88
Units Profit -4.37 Units Profit 3.31 Units Profit 0.09 Units Profit -7.77
ROI % -1% ROI % 2% ROI % 0% ROI % -35%
View Handicapper's Profile

DanShot Insight: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date Event Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
8th Mar '20 UFC 248 8 3.7 47% 3.7 / 8 (47%)
29th Feb '20 UFC Fight Night 3 -0.4 -13% -0.4 / 3 (-13%)
18th Jan '20 UFC 246 13 -0.7 -6% 1.8 / 10.5 (17%) -2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)
2nd Nov '19 UFC 244 14.5 -3.6 -25% -3.6 / 14.5 (-25%)
1st Nov '19 Combate 48 1 1.3 125% 1.3 / 1 (125%)
14th Sep '19 UFC Fight Night 158 6 19.5 326% 19.5 / 6 (326%)
31st Aug '19 UFC Fight Night 157 21 -1.1 -5% 7.9 / 12 (66%) -7.0 / 7 (-100%) -2.0 / 2 (-100%)
10th Aug '19 UFC Fight Night 156 4 -4.0 -100% -4.0 / 4 (-100%)
6th Jul '19 UFC 239 35 5.4 15% -0.0 / 7 (-0%) 5.4 / 28 (19%)
4th May '19 UFC Fight Night 150 26.4 -3.3 -12% -5.1 / 13.5 (-38%) 1.8 / 12.9 (14%)
4th May '19 Bellator Birmingham 1 -1.0 -100% -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
17th Feb '19 UFC on ESPN 1 6 -1.5 -25% -2.0 / 2 (-100%) 0.5 / 4 (13%)
2nd Feb '19 UFC Fight Night 144 10 3.6 36% -2.0 / 2 (-100%) 5.6 / 8 (70%)
29th Dec '18 UFC 232 14 -14.0 -100% -5.0 / 5 (-100%) -9.0 / 9 (-100%)
15th Dec '18 Fight Night Milwaukee 23 -4.9 -21% 2.6 / 9 (29%) -2.5 / 9 (-28%) -5.0 / 5 (-100%)
8th Dec '18 UFC 231 18.5 0.8 4% 1.3 / 11 (12%) 1.5 / 5.5 (27%) -2.0 / 2 (-100%)
8th Dec '18 Cage Warriors 100 3 -0.8 -27% -0.8 / 3 (-27%)
1st Dec '18 UFC Fight Night 142 12 -3.8 -32% -3.1 / 7 (-44%) -0.7 / 5 (-14%)
24th Nov '18 UFC Fight Night 141 4.5 2.0 44% 3.5 / 3 (117%) -1.5 / 1.5 (-100%)
17th Nov '18 UFC Fight Night 140 17.5 12.8 73% 5.0 / 5 (99%) 6.0 / 9.5 (63%) 1.8 / 3 (60%)
10th Nov '18 UFC Fight Night Denver 26.5 -11.9 -45% -12.1 / 21 (-58%) 1.2 / 4.5 (27%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
3rd Nov '18 UFC 230 30 2.4 8% 2.1 / 18.5 (11%) -2.6 / 7 (-37%) 2.9 / 4.5 (64%)
27th Oct '18 UFC Fight Night 138 10 -4.0 -40% -4.0 / 10 (-40%)
13th Oct '18 Bellator 208 2 1.8 91% 1.8 / 2 (91%)
6th Oct '18 UFC 229 22 -6.5 -30% -5.5 / 13.5 (-41%) 2.5 / 5 (50%) -3.5 / 3.5 (-100%)
29th Sep '18 Bellator 206 4.5 2.4 53% 1.3 / 3 (44%) 1.1 / 1.5 (71%)
22nd Sep '18 UFC Fight Night Sao Paulo 19 1.5 8% 0.1 / 16 (1%) 1.4 / 3 (47%)


Winning Events: 12 (44%)
Losing Events: 15 (56%)

Average Staked Per Event: 13.16 units
Most Staked On One Event: 35.00 units
Best Event: 19.54 units
Worst Event: -14.00 units
Average Event: -0.16 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 2, Units: 20.79
Max Losing Streak: Events: 3, Units: -18.93

DanShot Insight: Year on Year Profit

Year Bet Won ROI Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Events
Won / Lost (%)
Profit
Per Event
2020 24 2.6 11% 5.1 / 21.5 (24%) -2.5 / 2.5 (-100%) 1 / 2 (33%) 0.87
2019 124.9 15.3 12% 11.0 / 63 (17%) 6.3 / 59.9 (11%) -2.0 / 2 (-100%) 4 / 6 (40%) 1.53
2018 206.5 -22.3 -11% -12.8 / 127 (-10%) -3.7 / 59 (-6%) -5.8 / 20.5 (-28%) 7 / 7 (50%) -1.59

DanShot Insight: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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DanShot Insight: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
UFC 343.9 -8.0 -2% 0.7 / 201.5 (0%) 0.1 / 121.4 (0%) -8.8 / 21 (-42%)
Bellator 7.5 3.2 43% 2.1 / 6 (36%) 1.1 / 1.5 (71%)
Other 4 0.5 11% 0.5 / 4 (11%)

DanShot Insight: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 16 (18%) 13 81 % 59.00 7.60 0.48 13%
Slight Favorites 31 (35%) 16 52 % 75.00 -11.98 -0.39 -16%
Slight Underdogs 27 (30%) 12 44 % 50.50 -9.32 -0.35 -18%
Big Underdogs 15 (17%) 5 33 % 27.00 17.01 1.13 63%



Betting Stats By Card Position

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Main Event 11 (12%) 5 45 % 27.00 -4.89 -0.44 -18%
Co-Main Event 8 (9%) 6 75 % 20.00 5.56 0.70 28%
Position 3-5 24 (27%) 13 54 % 62.00 11.51 0.48 19%
6+ (Undercard) 45 (51%) 21 47 % 99.50 -10.88 -0.24 -11%

DanShot Insight: Profit by Weight Class

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Heavyweight 5 (6%) 3 60 % 11.50 1.49 0.30 13%
Light Heavy 7 (8%) 2 29 % 18.00 -8.61 -1.23 -48%
Middleweight 11 (12%) 7 64 % 27.50 2.52 0.23 9%
Welterweight 14 (16%) 8 57 % 30.00 17.40 1.24 58%
Lightweight 10 (11%) 5 50 % 20.50 -4.19 -0.42 -20%
Featherweight 14 (16%) 7 50 % 32.00 0.80 0.06 2%
Bantamweight 9 (10%) 4 44 % 18.00 -1.58 -0.18 -9%
Flyweight 3 (3%) 2 67 % 9.00 0.73 0.24 8%
               
Women's Fights 16 (18%) 8 50 % 45.00 -5.25 -0.33 -12%
Bantamweight 5 (6%) 4 80 % 9.50 4.42 0.88 47%
Flyweight 3 (3%) 2 67 % 12.00 -0.01 -0.00 -0%
Strawweight 8 (9%) 2 25 % 23.50 -9.66 -1.21 -41%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
Big Favorites 17 (71%) 13 76 %
Slight Favorites 5 (21%) 3 60 %
Slight Underdogs 2 (8%) 1 50 %
Big Underdogs 0 (0%) 0 nan %
24 17 71 %

 

Props bets and props within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
>65% chance 7 (10%) 6 86 %
50-65% 16 (23%) 7 44 %
35-50% 13 (18%) 7 54 %
<35% chance 35 (49%) 7 20 %
71 27 38 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type Picks Correct % Correct Avg
Odds
Longest
Odds
Shortest
Odds
1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 8 (11%) 3 38 % 1.91 2.95Pick was incorrect 1.50Pick was correct -2.7 (-34%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 3 (4%) 2 67 % 1.85 2.00Pick was correct 1.73Pick was correct 0.7 (24%)
Goes to Decision 2 (3%) 2 100 % 1.90 2.20Pick was correct 1.67Pick was correct 1.9 (93%)
Does not go to Decision 10 (14%) 6 60 % 1.60 2.05Pick was incorrect 1.30Pick was correct -1.1 (-11%)
X Wins by KO 12 (17%) 6 50 % 2.88 10.00Pick was incorrect 1.50Pick was correct 5.3 (44%)
X Wins by Sub 8 (11%) 1 13 % 6.51 14.00Pick was incorrect 3.75Pick was correct -4.3 (-53%)
X Wins by Decision 5 (7%) 1 20 % 3.24 7.50Pick was incorrect 1.67Pick was incorrect -1.8 (-36%)
X Wins Inside Distance 14 (20%) 3 21 % 3.29 11.00Pick was incorrect 1.45Pick was incorrect -3.3 (-24%)
X Wins in Round X 2 (3%) 0 0 % 7.49 11.75Pick was incorrect 5.50Pick was incorrect -2.0 (-100%)
Others 7 (10%) 3 43 % 3.13 9.00Pick was incorrect 1.73Pick was correct 1.1 (16%)
71 27 38 % 2.65     -6.2 (-9%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail DanShot Insight's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date Event Bet Won ROI Fee 1 unit = Start End
22nd Sep UFC Fight Night Sao Paulo 19 1.5 8% $10.00 $1,000.00 $1,015.19
29th Sep Bellator 206 4.5 2.4 53% $10.15 $1,015.19 $1,039.45
6th Oct UFC 229 22 -6.5 -30% $10.39 $1,039.45 $971.99
13th Oct Bellator 208 2 1.8 91% $9.72 $971.99 $989.68
27th Oct UFC Fight Night 138 10 -4.0 -40% $9.90 $989.68 $950.09
3rd Nov UFC 230 30 2.4 8% $9.50 $950.09 $972.49
10th Nov UFC Fight Night Denver 26.5 -11.9 -45% $9.72 $972.49 $857.06
17th Nov UFC Fight Night 140 17.5 12.8 73% $8.57 $857.06 $966.36
24th Nov UFC Fight Night 141 4.5 2.0 44% $9.66 $966.36 $985.69
1st Dec UFC Fight Night 142 12 -3.8 -32% $9.86 $985.69 $948.23
8th Dec Cage Warriors 100 3 -0.8 -27% $9.48 $948.23 $940.64
8th Dec UFC 231 18.5 0.8 4% $9.41 $940.64 $948.08
15th Dec Fight Night Milwaukee 23 -4.9 -21% $9.48 $948.08 $901.30
29th Dec UFC 232 14 -14.0 -100% $9.01 $901.30 $775.12
2nd Feb UFC Fight Night 144 10 3.6 36% $7.75 $775.12 $803.02
17th Feb UFC on ESPN 1 6 -1.5 -25% $8.03 $803.02 $790.98
4th May Bellator Birmingham 1 -1.0 -100% $7.91 $790.98 $783.07
4th May UFC Fight Night 150 26.4 -3.3 -12% $7.83 $783.07 $757.40
6th Jul UFC 239 35 5.4 15% $7.57 $757.40 $798.22
10th Aug UFC Fight Night 156 4 -4.0 -100% $7.98 $798.22 $766.29
31st Aug UFC Fight Night 157 21 -1.1 -5% $7.66 $766.29 $757.97
14th Sep UFC Fight Night 158 6 19.5 326% $7.58 $757.97 $906.07
1st Nov Combate 48 1 1.3 125% $9.06 $906.07 $917.40
2nd Nov UFC 244 14.5 -3.6 -25% $9.17 $917.40 $884.19
18th Jan UFC 246 13 -0.7 -6% $8.84 $884.19 $877.73
29th Feb UFC Fight Night 3 -0.4 -13% $8.78 $877.73 $874.22
8th Mar UFC 248 8 3.7 47% $8.74 $874.22 $906.83


ROI % from starting bank balance: -9.32% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

DanShot Insight: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result    
1. Mar '20 Israel Adesanya Yoel Romero 1.40 2 U Decision (5 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
2. Mar '20 Gerald Meerschaert Deron Winn 2.20 1 Sub, R3 (2:13) MMA Bookmaker
3. Mar '20 Alex Oliveira Max Griffin 1.73 1 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
4. Mar '20 Giga Chikadze Jamall Emmers 2.50 2 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
5. Feb '20 Spike Carlyle Aalon Cruz 2.60 1 TKO, R1 (1:25) MMA Bookmaker
6. Jan '20 Holly Holm Raquel Pennington 1.77 1 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
7. Jan '20 Aleksei Oleinik Maurice Greene 2.10 1.5 Sub, R2 (4:38) MMA Bookmaker
8. Jan '20 Askar Askarov Tim Elliott 1.80 2 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
9. Jan '20 Drew Dober Nasrat Haqparast 3.75 1 TKO, R1 (1:10) MMA Bookmaker
10. Nov '19 Stephen Thompson Vicente Luque 1.81 1 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
11. Nov '19 Edmen Shahbazyan Brad Tavares 1.91 3 TKO, R1 (2:27) MMA Bookmaker
12. Nov '19 Jairzinho Rozenstruik Andrei Arlovski 1.67 2 TKO, R1 (0:29) MMA Bookmaker
13. Nov '19 Gilbert Urbina Angelo Trevino 2.25 1 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
14. Sep '19 Miles Johns Cole Smith 1.77 2 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
15. Sep '19 Tristan Connelly Michel Pereira 5.50 4 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
16. Aug '19 Karol Rosa Lara Fritzen Procopio 2.00 2 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
17. Aug '19 Damir Ismagulov Thiago Moises 1.53 3 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
18. Aug '19 Kai Kara-France Mark Delarosa 1.53 4 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
19. Aug '19 Mizuki Inoue Yanan Wu 1.73 3 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
20. Jul '19 Claudia Gadelha Randa Markos 1.40 5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker



Last 20 Losses

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result Hedge?    
1. Mar '20 Guido Cannetti Danaa Batgerel 2.10 1 TKO, R1 (3:1) No MMA Bookmaker
2. Mar '20 Jose Quinonez Sean O'Malley 4.00 1 TKO, R1 (2:2) No MMA Bookmaker
3. Feb '20 Tom Breese Brendan Allen 1.77 2 TKO, R1 (4:47) No MMA Bookmaker
4. Jan '20 Andre Fili Sodiq Yusuff 2.20 2 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
5. Jan '20 Anthony Pettis Carlos Diego Ferreira 3.00 1.5 Sub, R2 (1:46) No MMA Bookmaker
6. Jan '20 J.J. Aldrich Sabina Mazo 1.95 1.5 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
7. Nov '19 Blagoy Ivanov Derrick Lewis 1.83 3 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
8. Nov '19 Julio Arce Hakeem Dawodu 2.10 1.5 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
9. Nov '19 Chance Rencountre Lyman Good 2.20 2 TKO, R3 (2:3) No MMA Bookmaker
10. Nov '19 Nate Diaz Jorge Masvidal 2.65 2 TKO, R3 (5:0) No MMA Bookmaker
11. Aug '19 Polyana Viana Veronica Macedo 2.10 4 Sub, R1 (1:9) No MMA Bookmaker
12. Jul '19 Alejandro Perez Yadong Song 2.80 2 TKO, R1 (2:4) No MMA Bookmaker
13. May '19 Brad Katona Merab Dvalishvili 2.62 2 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
14. May '19 Kyle Nelson Matt Sayles 2.90 1 Sub, R3 (3:16) No MMA Bookmaker
15. May '19 Elias Theodorou Derek Brunson 1.91 2 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
16. May '19 Al Iaquinta Donald Cerrone 1.85 3 U Decision (5 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
17. May '19 Tim Wilde Brent Primus 4.50 1 Sub, R1 (1:20) No MMA Bookmaker
18. Feb '19 Alexandra Albu Emily Whitmire 1.91 2 Sub, R1 (1:1) No MMA Bookmaker
19. Feb '19 Lyman Good Demian Maia 2.50 2 Sub, R1 (2:38) No MMA Bookmaker
20. Dec '18 Siyar Bahadurzada Curtis Millender 2.18 2 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

DanShot Insight: Progress Chart

Chart

 

 
 
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