MMA Handicapper Directory
Total MMA Handicappers: 1430
Profitable MMA Handicappers: 586

MMA Handicapper Stats: Optimal MMA Picks

Optimal MMA Picks (OptimalMMAPicks)

MMA MHandicapper - Optimal MMA Picks

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	39 (53%)	Right	19 (48%)	Right	7 (64%)	Right	13 (57%)
Wrong	35 (47%)	Wrong	21 (53%)	Wrong	4 (36%)	Wrong	10 (43%)
Avg Odds	1.87	Avg Odds	1.89	Avg Odds	1.86	Avg Odds	1.85
Units Bet	189.8	Units Bet	97.8	Units Bet	26.3	Units Bet	65.8
Avg Bet	2.57	Avg Bet	2.45	Avg Bet	2.39	Avg Bet	2.86
Units Profit	-0.88	Units Profit	-8.47	Units Profit	4.42	Units Profit	3.17
ROI %	-0%	ROI %	-9%	ROI %	17%	ROI %	5%

Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
29th Dec '18	UFC 232	12	-8.3	-69%	-4.5 / 4.5 (-100%)	1.7 / 2 (86%)	-5.5 / 5.5 (-100%)
15th Dec '18	Fight Night Milwaukee	7	6.3	91%	6.3 / 7 (91%)
8th Dec '18	UFC 231	7.75	-1.6	-21%		-1.8 / 1.75 (-100%)	0.1 / 6 (2%)
1st Dec '18	UFC Fight Night 142	8	7.2	90%	4.0 / 3.5 (115%)		3.1 / 4.5 (70%)
30th Nov '18	TUF Finale	6.5	-3.0	-47%	-0.5 / 4 (-13%)		-2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)
24th Nov '18	UFC Fight Night 141	9.25	5.3	58%		0.6 / 1.75 (36%)	4.7 / 7.5 (63%)
17th Nov '18	UFC Fight Night 140	7.5	-1.7	-23%	-4.0 / 4 (-100%)	-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)	2.8 / 3 (93%)
10th Nov '18	UFC Fight Night Denver	8.5	0.1	1%	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)	3.1 / 5.5 (55%)
3rd Nov '18	UFC 230	13.75	-4.2	-31%		-0.2 / 9.75 (-2%)	-4.0 / 4 (-100%)
27th Oct '18	UFC Fight Night 138	9.5	5.4	57%	3.0 / 2.5 (119%)		2.4 / 7 (35%)
20th Oct '18	Cage Warriors 98	5	-5.0	-100%	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
13th Oct '18	Bellator 208	1	-1.0	-100%	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
6th Oct '18	UFC 229	10.5	-4.0	-38%	-5.5 / 5.5 (-100%)	1.5 / 5 (30%)
29th Sep '18	Cage Warriors 97	2	0.9	44%	0.9 / 2 (44%)
22nd Sep '18	UFC Fight Night Sao Paulo	5.75	3.4	59%			3.4 / 5.75 (59%)
15th Sep '18	UFC FIght Night Moscow	5	2.7	54%			2.7 / 5 (54%)
8th Sep '18	UFC 228	9.5	-3.4	-36%	-1.5 / 1.5 (-100%)		-1.9 / 8 (-24%)
1st Sep '18	Cage Warriors 96	2.4	2.0	83%	2.0 / 2.4 (83%)
25th Aug '18	UFC Fight Night 135	5	-5.0	-100%			-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
17th Aug '18	Bellator 204	3.43	1.2	36%	1.2 / 3.43 (36%)
4th Aug '18	UFC 227	11	8.2	75%	5.4 / 9 (59%)		2.8 / 2 (142%)
31st Jul '18	DWTNCS 15	0.5	1.7	345%	1.7 / 0.5 (345%)
28th Jul '18	UFC on Fox 30	10	-3.5	-35%	-3.5 / 10 (-35%)
22nd Jul '18	UFC Fight Night 134	11	5.0	46%	5.0 / 11 (46%)
17th Jul '18	DWTNCS 13	2	-2.0	-100%	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
14th Jul '18	UFC Fight Night 133	12	-3.5	-29%	-3.5 / 12 (-29%)
13th Jul '18	Bellator 202	4	-4.0	-100%	-4.0 / 4 (-100%)

Winning Events: 13 (48%)
Losing Events: 14 (52%)

Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2018	189.83	-0.9	-0%	-8.5 / 97.83 (-9%)	4.4 / 26.25 (17%)	3.2 / 65.75 (5%)	13 / 14 (48%)	-0.03

Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	169.5	5.3	3%	-2.3 / 77.5 (-3%)	4.4 / 26.25 (17%)	3.2 / 65.75 (5%)
Bellator	8.43	-3.8	-45%	-3.8 / 8.43 (-45%)
Other	11.9	-2.4	-20%	-2.4 / 11.9 (-20%)

Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	11 (28%)	6	55 %	36.43	-8.56	-0.78	-24%
Slight Favorites	9 (23%)	4	44 %	24.40	-4.50	-0.50	-18%
Slight Underdogs	17 (43%)	8	47 %	34.50	4.87	0.29	14%
Big Underdogs	3 (8%)	1	33 %	2.50	-0.28	-0.09	-11%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	7 (18%)	3	43 %	16.33	-0.74	-0.11	-5%
Co-Main Event	5 (13%)	4	80 %	10.50	2.13	0.43	20%
Position 3-5	7 (18%)	4	57 %	20.50	1.16	0.17	6%
6+ (Undercard)	21 (53%)	8	38 %	50.50	-11.01	-0.52	-22%

by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	3 (8%)	2	67 %	3.50	2.19	0.73	62%
Light Heavy	4 (10%)	2	50 %	6.50	1.61	0.40	25%
Middleweight	1 (3%)	1	100 %	3.00	1.60	1.60	53%
Welterweight	5 (13%)	3	60 %	12.50	7.55	1.51	60%
Lightweight	8 (20%)	4	50 %	23.90	-6.05	-0.76	-25%
Featherweight	4 (10%)	1	25 %	7.50	-4.35	-1.09	-58%
Bantamweight	9 (23%)	5	56 %	26.43	-0.52	-0.06	-2%
Flyweight	2 (5%)		0 %	6.00	-6.00	-3.00	-100%

Women's Fights	4 (10%)	1	25 %	8.50	-4.50	-1.13	-53%
Featherweight	1 (3%)		0 %	3.00	-3.00	-3.00	-100%
Bantamweight	1 (3%)	1	100 %	2.00	2.00	2.00	100%
Strawweight	2 (5%)		0 %	3.50	-3.50	-1.75	-100%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	22 (85%)	20	91 %
Slight Favorites	4 (15%)	2	50 %
Slight Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	0 %
Big Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	0 %
	26	22	85 %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	21 (64%)	17	81 %
50-65%	7 (21%)	4	57 %
35-50%	3 (9%)	2	67 %
<35% chance	2 (6%)	0	0 %
	33	23	70 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	3 (9%)	2	67 %	1.64	1.73	1.57	0.4 (12%)
Goes to Decision	6 (18%)	4	67 %	1.54	3.60	1.32	-0.4 (-7%)
Does not go to Decision	20 (61%)	17	85 %	1.42	2.38	1.08	4.7 (23%)
Fight Starts Round X	1 (3%)	0	0 %	1.29	1.29	1.29	-1.0 (-100%)
X Wins by Decision	1 (3%)	0	0 %	5.00	5.00	5.00	-1.0 (-100%)
X Wins Inside Distance	1 (3%)	0	0 %	2.80	2.80	2.80	-1.0 (-100%)
Others	1 (3%)	0	0 %	1.36	1.36	1.36	-1.0 (-100%)
	33	23	70 %	1.51			0.6 (2%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail handicapper's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
13th Jul	Bellator 202	4	-4.0	-100%		$10.00	$1,000.00	$960.00
14th Jul	UFC Fight Night 133	12	-3.5	-29%		$9.60	$960.00	$926.40
17th Jul	DWTNCS 13	2	-2.0	-100%		$9.26	$926.40	$907.87
22nd Jul	UFC Fight Night 134	11	5.0	46%		$9.08	$907.87	$953.39
28th Jul	UFC on Fox 30	10	-3.5	-35%		$9.53	$953.39	$920.22
31st Jul	DWTNCS 15	0.5	1.7	345%		$9.20	$920.22	$936.09
4th Aug	UFC 227	11	8.2	75%		$9.36	$936.09	$1,012.84
17th Aug	Bellator 204	3.43	1.2	36%		$10.13	$1,012.84	$1,025.47
25th Aug	UFC Fight Night 135	5	-5.0	-100%		$10.25	$1,025.47	$974.20
1st Sep	Cage Warriors 96	2.4	2.0	83%		$9.74	$974.20	$993.61
8th Sep	UFC 228	9.5	-3.4	-36%		$9.94	$993.61	$959.34
15th Sep	UFC FIght Night Moscow	5	2.7	54%		$9.59	$959.34	$985.26
22nd Sep	UFC Fight Night Sao Paulo	5.75	3.4	59%		$9.85	$985.26	$1,018.71
29th Sep	Cage Warriors 97	2	0.9	44%		$10.19	$1,018.71	$1,027.68
6th Oct	UFC 229	10.5	-4.0	-38%		$10.28	$1,027.68	$986.57
13th Oct	Bellator 208	1	-1.0	-100%		$9.87	$986.57	$976.71
20th Oct	Cage Warriors 98	5	-5.0	-100%		$9.77	$976.71	$927.87
27th Oct	UFC Fight Night 138	9.5	5.4	57%		$9.28	$927.87	$977.90
3rd Nov	UFC 230	13.75	-4.2	-31%		$9.78	$977.90	$936.53
10th Nov	UFC Fight Night Denver	8.5	0.1	1%		$9.37	$936.53	$937.00
17th Nov	UFC Fight Night 140	7.5	-1.7	-23%		$9.37	$937.00	$921.09
24th Nov	UFC Fight Night 141	9.25	5.3	58%		$9.21	$921.09	$970.12
30th Nov	TUF Finale	6.5	-3.0	-47%		$9.70	$970.12	$940.63
1st Dec	UFC Fight Night 142	8	7.2	90%		$9.41	$940.63	$1,008.05
8th Dec	UFC 231	7.75	-1.6	-21%		$10.08	$1,008.05	$991.65
15th Dec	Fight Night Milwaukee	7	6.3	91%		$9.92	$991.65	$1,054.52
29th Dec	UFC 232	12	-8.3	-69%	$10	$10.55	$1,054.52	$957.21

ROI % from starting bank balance: -4.28% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Dec '18	Mike Rodriguez	Adam Milstead	2.50	1.5	TKO, R1 (2:59)
2.	Dec '18	Rob Font	Sergio Pettis	1.58	3.5	U Decision (3 rounds)
3.	Dec '18	Edson Barboza	Daniel Hooker	2.03	2	TKO, R3 (2:19)
4.	Nov '18	Juan Espino	Justin Frazier	1.73	2	Sub, R1 (3:36)
5.	Dec '18	Tony Martin	Jake Matthews	2.15	3.5	Sub, R3 (1:19)
6.	Oct '18	Sean Strickland	Nordine Taleb	2.19	2.5	TKO, R2 (3:10)
7.	Sep '18	Mason Jones	Kacper Formela	1.44	2	TKO, R1 (4:3)
8.	Sep '18	Soren Bak	Paddy Pimblett	1.83	2.4	U Decision (5 rounds)
9.	Aug '18	Darrion Caldwell	Noad Lahat	1.36	3.43	TKO, R2 (2:45)
10.	Aug '18	Pedro Munhoz	Brett Johns	1.50	3	U Decision (3 rounds)
11.	Aug '18	Ricardo Ramos	Kyung Ho Kang	1.49	4.5	Split Decision (3 rounds)
12.	Jul '18	Don'tale Mayes	Mitchell Sipe	4.45	0.5	TKO, R2 (4:49)
13.	Aug '18	Sheymon da Silva Moraes	Matt Sayles	2.10	1.5	U Decision (3 rounds)
14.	Jul '18	Dustin Poirier	Eddie Alvarez	1.63	4	TKO, R2 (4:5)
15.	Jul '18	Abu Azaitar	Vitor Miranda	1.53	3	U Decision (3 rounds)
16.	Jul '18	Aleksandar Rakic	Justin Ledet	2.18	2	U Decision (3 rounds)
17.	Jul '18	Bartosz Fabinski	Emil Meek	2.35	3	U Decision (3 rounds)
18.	Jul '18	Cat Zingano	Marion Reneau	2.00	2	U Decision (3 rounds)
19.	Jul '18	Alejandro Perez	Eddie Wineland	1.50	3	U Decision (3 rounds)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Dec '18	Brian Kelleher	Montel Jackson	2.45	1.5	Sub, R1 (1:40)	No
2.	Dec '18	Cat Zingano	Megan Anderson	1.71	3	TKO, R1 (1:1)	No
3.	Nov '18	Alex Perez	Joseph Benavidez	1.80	2	TKO, R1 (4:19)	No
4.	Nov '18	Hector Aldana	Laureano Staropoli	2.20	1.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
5.	Nov '18	Poliana Botelho	Cynthia Calvillo	1.91	2.5	Sub, R1 (4:48)	No
6.	Nov '18	Luis Pena	Mike Trizano	1.53	3	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
7.	Oct '18	Alexander Jacobsen	Perry Goodwin	1.40	5	TKO, R2 (0:37)	No
8.	Oct '18	Chael Sonnen	Fedor Emelianenko	3.66	1	TKO, R1 (4:45)	No
9.	Oct '18	Alan Patrick	Scott Holtzman	1.40	3	TKO, R3 (3:42)	No
10.	Oct '18	Conor McGregor	Khabib Nurmagomedov	2.43	2.5	Sub, R4 (3:2)	No
11.	Sep '18	Cody Stamann	Aljamain Sterling	2.51	1.5	Sub, R2 (3:42)	No
12.	Jul '18	Gadzhimurad Antigulov	Ion Cutelaba	2.04	2	TKO, R1 (4:25)	No
13.	Jul '18	Matheus Nicolau	Dustin Ortiz	1.53	4	TKO, R1 (3:49)	No
14.	Jul '18	Mauricio Rua	Anthony Smith	3.00	1	TKO, R1 (1:29)	No
15.	Jul '18	Damian Stasiak	Pingyuan Liu	2.06	2	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
16.	Jul '18	Angelo Trevino	Austin Vanderford	2.25	2	Sub, R2 (2:42)	No
17.	Jul '18	Myles Jury	Chad Mendes	2.25	2	TKO, R1 (2:52)	No
18.	Jul '18	Eduardo Dantas	Michael McDonald	1.55	4	TKO, R1 (0:58)	No
19.	Jul '18	Kurt Holobaugh	Raoni Barcelos	1.53	2.5	TKO, R3 (1:39)	No
20.	Jul '18	Jodie Esquibel	Jessica Aguilar	1.70	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

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