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Total MMA Handicappers: 1540
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MMA Handicapper Stats: Optimal MMA Picks

Optimal MMA Picks (OptimalMMAPicks)


MMA MHandicapper - Optimal MMA Picks

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MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats

Straight Fight Picks

Props

Parlays

Right 63 (59%) Right 35 (58%) Right 10 (59%) Right 18 (60%)
Wrong 44 (41%) Wrong 25 (42%) Wrong 7 (41%) Wrong 12 (40%)
Avg Odds 1.86 Avg Odds 1.88 Avg Odds 1.79 Avg Odds 1.84
Units Bet 267.4 Units Bet 147.2 Units Bet 40.8 Units Bet 79.5
Avg Bet 2.50 Avg Bet 2.45 Avg Bet 2.40 Avg Bet 2.65
Units Profit 22.03 Units Profit 9.55 Units Profit 5.19 Units Profit 7.30
ROI % 8% ROI % 6% ROI % 13% ROI % 9%
View Handicapper's Profile

Optimal MMA Picks: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date Event Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
16th Mar '19 UFC Fight Night 147 10 4.5 45% 6.0 / 8.5 (70%) -1.5 / 1.5 (-100%)
9th Mar '19 UFC Fight Night 146 11.25 3.6 32% 5.4 / 9.5 (56%) -1.8 / 1.75 (-100%)
2nd Mar '19 UFC 235 9.1 3.5 38% 3.5 / 9.1 (38%)
23rd Feb '19 UFC Fight Night 145 9 5.0 55% 3.5 / 4.75 (74%) -0.8 / 0.75 (-100%) 2.2 / 3.5 (64%)
17th Feb '19 UFC on ESPN 1 6.5 3.8 58% 2.3 / 1.5 (150%) 1.5 / 5 (31%)
9th Feb '19 UFC 234 14.5 10.0 69% 3.8 / 6 (63%) 1.1 / 1.5 (73%) 5.2 / 7 (74%)
2nd Feb '19 UFC Fight Night 144 9 -2.9 -32% -3.5 / 3.5 (-100%) 0.6 / 5.5 (11%)
26th Jan '19 Bellator Los Angeles 2.5 1.2 47% 1.2 / 2.5 (47%)
19th Jan '19 UFC on ESPN+ 1 5.75 -5.8 -100% -4.0 / 4 (-100%) -1.8 / 1.75 (-100%)
29th Dec '18 UFC 232 12 -8.3 -69% -4.5 / 4.5 (-100%) 1.7 / 2 (86%) -5.5 / 5.5 (-100%)
15th Dec '18 Fight Night Milwaukee 7 6.3 91% 6.3 / 7 (91%)
8th Dec '18 UFC 231 7.75 -1.6 -21% -1.8 / 1.75 (-100%) 0.1 / 6 (2%)
1st Dec '18 UFC Fight Night 142 8 7.2 90% 4.0 / 3.5 (115%) 3.1 / 4.5 (70%)
30th Nov '18 TUF Finale 6.5 -3.0 -47% -0.5 / 4 (-13%) -2.5 / 2.5 (-100%)
24th Nov '18 UFC Fight Night 141 9.25 5.3 58% 0.6 / 1.75 (36%) 4.7 / 7.5 (63%)
17th Nov '18 UFC Fight Night 140 7.5 -1.7 -23% -4.0 / 4 (-100%) -0.5 / 0.5 (-100%) 2.8 / 3 (93%)
10th Nov '18 UFC Fight Night Denver 8.5 0.1 1% -3.0 / 3 (-100%) 3.1 / 5.5 (55%)
3rd Nov '18 UFC 230 13.75 -4.2 -31% -0.2 / 9.75 (-2%) -4.0 / 4 (-100%)
27th Oct '18 UFC Fight Night 138 9.5 5.4 57% 3.0 / 2.5 (119%) 2.4 / 7 (35%)
20th Oct '18 Cage Warriors 98 5 -5.0 -100% -5.0 / 5 (-100%)
13th Oct '18 Bellator 208 1 -1.0 -100% -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
6th Oct '18 UFC 229 10.5 -4.0 -38% -5.5 / 5.5 (-100%) 1.5 / 5 (30%)
29th Sep '18 Cage Warriors 97 2 0.9 44% 0.9 / 2 (44%)
22nd Sep '18 UFC Fight Night Sao Paulo 5.75 3.4 59% 3.4 / 5.75 (59%)
15th Sep '18 UFC FIght Night Moscow 5 2.7 54% 2.7 / 5 (54%)
8th Sep '18 UFC 228 9.5 -3.4 -36% -1.5 / 1.5 (-100%) -1.9 / 8 (-24%)
1st Sep '18 Cage Warriors 96 2.4 2.0 83% 2.0 / 2.4 (83%)
25th Aug '18 UFC Fight Night 135 5 -5.0 -100% -5.0 / 5 (-100%)
17th Aug '18 Bellator 204 3.43 1.2 36% 1.2 / 3.43 (36%)
4th Aug '18 UFC 227 11 8.2 75% 5.4 / 9 (59%) 2.8 / 2 (142%)
31st Jul '18 DWTNCS 15 0.5 1.7 345% 1.7 / 0.5 (345%)
28th Jul '18 UFC on Fox 30 10 -3.5 -35% -3.5 / 10 (-35%)
22nd Jul '18 UFC Fight Night 134 11 5.0 46% 5.0 / 11 (46%)
17th Jul '18 DWTNCS 13 2 -2.0 -100% -2.0 / 2 (-100%)
14th Jul '18 UFC Fight Night 133 12 -3.5 -29% -3.5 / 12 (-29%)
13th Jul '18 Bellator 202 4 -4.0 -100% -4.0 / 4 (-100%)


Winning Events: 20 (56%)
Losing Events: 16 (44%)

Average Staked Per Event: 7.43 units
Most Staked On One Event: 14.50 units
Best Event: 10.03 units
Worst Event: -8.28 units
Average Event: 0.61 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 6, Units: 30.36
Max Losing Streak: Events: 3, Units: -14.03

Optimal MMA Picks: Year on Year Profit

Year Bet Won ROI Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Events
Won / Lost (%)
Profit
Per Event
2019 77.6 22.9 30% 18.0 / 49.35 (36%) 0.8 / 14.5 (5%) 4.1 / 13.75 (30%) 7 / 2 (78%) 2.55
2018 189.83 -0.9 -0% -8.5 / 97.83 (-9%) 4.4 / 26.25 (17%) 3.2 / 65.75 (5%) 13 / 14 (48%) -0.03

Optimal MMA Picks: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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Optimal MMA Picks: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
UFC 244.6 27.0 11% 14.5 / 124.35 (12%) 5.2 / 40.75 (13%) 7.3 / 79.5 (9%)
Bellator 10.93 -2.6 -24% -2.6 / 10.93 (-24%)
Other 11.9 -2.4 -20% -2.4 / 11.9 (-20%)

Optimal MMA Picks: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 17 (28%) 11 65 % 57.93 -5.01 -0.29 -9%
Slight Favorites 15 (25%) 8 53 % 42.00 -2.95 -0.20 -7%
Slight Underdogs 21 (35%) 11 52 % 40.75 9.31 0.44 23%
Big Underdogs 7 (12%) 5 71 % 6.50 8.20 1.17 126%



Betting Stats By Card Position

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Main Event 10 (17%) 5 50 % 27.83 -1.37 -0.14 -5%
Co-Main Event 7 (12%) 5 71 % 15.50 0.13 0.02 1%
Position 3-5 13 (22%) 9 69 % 39.10 7.69 0.59 20%
6+ (Undercard) 30 (50%) 16 53 % 64.75 3.09 0.10 5%

Optimal MMA Picks: Profit by Weight Class

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Heavyweight 5 (8%) 4 80 % 11.00 5.56 1.11 51%
Light Heavy 6 (10%) 4 67 % 12.00 6.09 1.01 51%
Middleweight 1 (2%) 1 100 % 3.00 1.60 1.60 53%
Welterweight 8 (13%) 6 75 % 15.00 11.70 1.46 78%
Lightweight 10 (17%) 6 60 % 28.65 -2.21 -0.22 -8%
Featherweight 8 (13%) 3 38 % 17.00 -5.03 -0.63 -30%
Bantamweight 13 (22%) 8 62 % 36.18 2.94 0.23 8%
Flyweight 3 (5%) 0 % 10.00 -10.00 -3.33 -100%
               
Women's Fights 6 (10%) 3 50 % 14.35 -1.11 -0.18 -8%
Featherweight 1 (2%) 0 % 3.00 -3.00 -3.00 -100%
Bantamweight 1 (2%) 1 100 % 2.00 2.00 2.00 100%
Strawweight 4 (7%) 2 50 % 9.35 -0.11 -0.03 -1%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
Big Favorites 29 (88%) 27 93 %
Slight Favorites 4 (12%) 2 50 %
Slight Underdogs 0 (0%) 0 0 %
Big Underdogs 0 (0%) 0 0 %
33 29 88 %

 

Props bets and props within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
>65% chance 30 (65%) 23 77 %
50-65% 10 (22%) 6 60 %
35-50% 4 (9%) 2 50 %
<35% chance 2 (4%) 0 0 %
46 31 67 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type Picks Correct % Correct Avg
Odds
Longest
Odds
Shortest
Odds
1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 4 (9%) 3 75 % 1.66 1.73Pick was correct 1.57Pick was incorrect 1.1 (27%)
Goes to Decision 7 (15%) 4 57 % 1.64 3.60Pick was incorrect 1.32Pick was correct -1.4 (-20%)
Does not go to Decision 30 (65%) 24 80 % 1.43 2.38Pick was correct 1.08Pick was correct 4.4 (15%)
Fight Starts Round X 1 (2%) 0 0 % 1.29 1.29Pick was incorrect 1.29Pick was incorrect -1.0 (-100%)
X Wins by Decision 1 (2%) 0 0 % 5.00 5.00Pick was incorrect 5.00Pick was incorrect -1.0 (-100%)
X Wins Inside Distance 1 (2%) 0 0 % 2.80 2.80Pick was incorrect 2.80Pick was incorrect -1.0 (-100%)
X Wins in Round X 1 (2%) 0 0 % 1.50 1.50Pick was incorrect 1.50Pick was incorrect -1.0 (-100%)
Others 1 (2%) 0 0 % 1.36 1.36Pick was incorrect 1.36Pick was incorrect -1.0 (-100%)
46 31 67 % 1.51     -1.0 (-2%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Optimal MMA Picks's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date Event Bet Won ROI Fee 1 unit = Start End
13th Jul Bellator 202 4 -4.0 -100% $10.00 $1,000.00 $960.00
14th Jul UFC Fight Night 133 12 -3.5 -29% $9.60 $960.00 $926.40
17th Jul DWTNCS 13 2 -2.0 -100% $9.26 $926.40 $907.87
22nd Jul UFC Fight Night 134 11 5.0 46% $9.08 $907.87 $953.39
28th Jul UFC on Fox 30 10 -3.5 -35% $9.53 $953.39 $920.22
31st Jul DWTNCS 15 0.5 1.7 345% $9.20 $920.22 $936.09
4th Aug UFC 227 11 8.2 75% $9.36 $936.09 $1,012.84
17th Aug Bellator 204 3.43 1.2 36% $10.13 $1,012.84 $1,025.47
25th Aug UFC Fight Night 135 5 -5.0 -100% $10.25 $1,025.47 $974.20
1st Sep Cage Warriors 96 2.4 2.0 83% $9.74 $974.20 $993.61
8th Sep UFC 228 9.5 -3.4 -36% $9.94 $993.61 $959.34
15th Sep UFC FIght Night Moscow 5 2.7 54% $9.59 $959.34 $985.26
22nd Sep UFC Fight Night Sao Paulo 5.75 3.4 59% $9.85 $985.26 $1,018.71
29th Sep Cage Warriors 97 2 0.9 44% $10.19 $1,018.71 $1,027.68
6th Oct UFC 229 10.5 -4.0 -38% $10.28 $1,027.68 $986.57
13th Oct Bellator 208 1 -1.0 -100% $9.87 $986.57 $976.71
20th Oct Cage Warriors 98 5 -5.0 -100% $9.77 $976.71 $927.87
27th Oct UFC Fight Night 138 9.5 5.4 57% $9.28 $927.87 $977.90
3rd Nov UFC 230 13.75 -4.2 -31% $9.78 $977.90 $936.53
10th Nov UFC Fight Night Denver 8.5 0.1 1% $9.37 $936.53 $937.00
17th Nov UFC Fight Night 140 7.5 -1.7 -23% $9.37 $937.00 $921.09
24th Nov UFC Fight Night 141 9.25 5.3 58% $9.21 $921.09 $970.12
30th Nov TUF Finale 6.5 -3.0 -47% $9.70 $970.12 $940.63
1st Dec UFC Fight Night 142 8 7.2 90% $9.41 $940.63 $1,008.05
8th Dec UFC 231 7.75 -1.6 -21% $10.08 $1,008.05 $991.65
15th Dec Fight Night Milwaukee 7 6.3 91% $9.92 $991.65 $1,054.52
29th Dec UFC 232 12 -8.3 -69% $10 $10.55 $1,054.52 $957.21
19th Jan UFC on ESPN+ 1 5.75 -5.8 -100% $9.57 $957.21 $902.17
26th Jan Bellator Los Angeles 2.5 1.2 47% $9.02 $902.17 $912.77
2nd Feb UFC Fight Night 144 9 -2.9 -32% $9.13 $912.77 $886.48
9th Feb UFC 234 14.5 10.0 69% $8.86 $886.48 $975.36
17th Feb UFC on ESPN 1 6.5 3.8 58% $9.75 $975.36 $1,012.42
23rd Feb UFC Fight Night 145 9 5.0 55% $10.12 $1,012.42 $1,062.93
2nd Mar UFC 235 9.1 3.5 38% $10.63 $1,062.93 $1,099.81
9th Mar UFC Fight Night 146 11.25 3.6 32% $11.00 $1,099.81 $1,139.40
16th Mar UFC Fight Night 147 10 4.5 45% $11.39 $1,139.40 $1,190.45


ROI % from starting bank balance: 19.04% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Optimal MMA Picks: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result    
1. Mar '19 Saparbek Safarov Nick Negumereanu 2.88 1.5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
2. Mar '19 Mike Grundy Nad Narimani 3.00 1.5 TKO, R2 (4:42) MMA Bookmaker
3. Mar '19 Dominick Reyes Volkan Oezdemir 1.41 4 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
4. Mar '19 Beneil Dariush Drew Dober 1.55 3 Sub, R2 (4:41) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
5. Mar '19 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos Curtis Millender 2.00 1.5 Sub, R1 (2:35) MMA Bookmaker
6. Mar '19 Junior dos Santos Derrick Lewis 1.44 5 TKO, R2 (1:58) MMA Bookmaker
7. Mar '19 Diego Sanchez Mickey Gall 3.50 0.5 TKO, R2 (4:13) MMA Bookmaker
8. Mar '19 Cody Stamann Alejandro Perez 1.55 2.5 U Decision (3 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
9. Mar '19 Diego Sanchez Mickey Gall 3.80 0.5 TKO, R2 (4:13) MMA Bookmaker
10. Mar '19 Weili Zhang Tecia Torres 1.77 2.85 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
11. Feb '19 Carlos Diego Ferreira Rustam Khabilov 2.25 1.75 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
12. Feb '19 Chris Fishgold Daniel Teymur 1.44 3 Sub, R2 (1:10) MMA Bookmaker
13. Feb '19 Aljamain Sterling Jimmie Rivera 2.50 1.5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
14. Feb '19 Montana De La Rosa Nadia Kassem 1.40 3 Sub, R2 (2:37) MMA Bookmaker
15. Feb '19 Ricky Simon Rani Yahya 1.86 3 U Decision (3 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
16. Jan '19 Ryan Bader Fedor Emelianenko 1.47 2.5 TKO, R1 (0:35) MMA Bookmaker
17. Dec '18 Mike Rodriguez Adam Milstead 2.50 1.5 TKO, R1 (2:59) MMA Bookmaker
18. Dec '18 Rob Font Sergio Pettis 1.58 3.5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
19. Dec '18 Edson Barboza Daniel Hooker 2.03 2 TKO, R3 (2:19) MMA Bookmaker
20. Nov '18 Juan Espino Justin Frazier 1.73 2 Sub, R1 (3:36) MMA Bookmaker



Last 20 Losses

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result Hedge?    
1. Mar '19 Jordan Rinaldi Arnold Allen 2.45 1.5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
2. Mar '19 Cody Garbrandt Pedro Munhoz 1.56 2.75 TKO, R1 (4:52) No MMA Bookmaker
3. Feb '19 Renato Moicano Jose Aldo 1.66 3.5 TKO, R2 (0:44) No MMA Bookmaker
4. Jan '19 T.J. Dillashaw Henry Cejudo 1.50 4 TKO, R1 (0:32) No MMA Bookmaker
5. Dec '18 Paid Pick Brian Kelleher Montel Jackson 2.45 1.5 Sub, R1 (1:40) No MMA Bookmaker
6. Dec '18 Cat Zingano Megan Anderson 1.71 3 TKO, R1 (1:1) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
7. Nov '18 Alex Perez Joseph Benavidez 1.80 2 TKO, R1 (4:19) No MMA Bookmaker
8. Nov '18 Hector Aldana Laureano Staropoli 2.20 1.5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
9. Nov '18 Poliana Botelho Cynthia Calvillo 1.91 2.5 Sub, R1 (4:48) No MMA Bookmaker
10. Nov '18 Luis Pena Mike Trizano 1.53 3 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
11. Oct '18 Alexander Jacobsen Perry Goodwin 1.40 5 TKO, R2 (0:37) No MMA Bookmaker
12. Oct '18 Chael Sonnen Fedor Emelianenko 3.66 1 TKO, R1 (4:45) No MMA Bookmaker
13. Oct '18 Alan Patrick Scott Holtzman 1.40 3 TKO, R3 (3:42) No MMA Bookmaker
14. Oct '18 Conor McGregor Khabib Nurmagomedov 2.43 2.5 Sub, R4 (3:2) No MMA Bookmaker
15. Sep '18 Cody Stamann Aljamain Sterling 2.51 1.5 Sub, R2 (3:42) No MMA Bookmaker
16. Jul '18 Gadzhimurad Antigulov Ion Cutelaba 2.04 2 TKO, R1 (4:25) No MMA Bookmaker
17. Jul '18 Matheus Nicolau Dustin Ortiz 1.53 4 TKO, R1 (3:49) No MMA Bookmaker
18. Jul '18 Mauricio Rua Anthony Smith 3.00 1 TKO, R1 (1:29) No MMA Bookmaker
19. Jul '18 Damian Stasiak Pingyuan Liu 2.06 2 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
20. Jul '18 Angelo Trevino Austin Vanderford 2.25 2 Sub, R2 (2:42) No MMA Bookmaker

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Optimal MMA Picks: Progress Chart

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