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MMA Handicapper Stats: akatako diary

akatako diary (akatakodiary)


Mixed Martial Arts Management - akatako diary

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MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats

Straight Fight Picks

Props

Parlays

Right 120 (59%) Right 101 (57%) Right 16 (73%) Right 3 (100%)
Wrong 83 (41%) Wrong 77 (43%) Wrong 6 (27%) Wrong 0 (0%)
Avg Odds 1.71 Avg Odds 1.72 Avg Odds 1.61 Avg Odds 1.68
Units Bet 611.6 Units Bet 537.1 Units Bet 70.5 Units Bet 4.0
Avg Bet 3.01 Avg Bet 3.02 Avg Bet 3.20 Avg Bet 1.33
Units Profit 10.84 Units Profit -5.02 Units Profit 13.07 Units Profit 2.78
ROI % 2% ROI % -1% ROI % 19% ROI % 69%
View Handicapper's Profile

akatako diary: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date Event Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
23rd Mar '19 UFC Fight Night 148 26 -12.3 -47% -12.3 / 26 (-47%)
16th Mar '19 UFC Fight Night 147 36 -9.7 -27% -4.1 / 23 (-18%) -5.6 / 13 (-43%)
9th Mar '19 UFC Fight Night 146 32 2.4 7% 0.7 / 27 (3%) 1.7 / 5 (34%)
2nd Mar '19 UFC 235 25.5 -0.6 -2% -3.1 / 22.5 (-14%) 2.5 / 3 (84%)
23rd Feb '19 UFC Fight Night 145 21 0.2 1% -2.2 / 12 (-18%) 2.4 / 9 (27%)
17th Feb '19 UFC on ESPN 1 35 7.7 22% 4.9 / 31 (16%) 2.8 / 4 (70%)
9th Feb '19 UFC 234 10 4.3 43% 1.2 / 5 (23%) 3.1 / 5 (62%)
2nd Feb '19 UFC Fight Night 144 16 12.4 77% 12.4 / 16 (77%)
26th Jan '19 Bellator Los Angeles 4 1.8 44% 1.8 / 4 (44%)
19th Jan '19 UFC on ESPN+ 1 28 24.3 87% 20.2 / 20 (101%) 4.2 / 8 (52%)
29th Dec '18 UFC 232 26 5.9 23% 5.1 / 20 (25%) 0.8 / 6 (13%)
15th Dec '18 Bellator 213 6 -2.3 -39% -2.3 / 6 (-39%)
15th Dec '18 Fight Night Milwaukee 24 -2.4 -10% -5.4 / 16 (-34%) 3.0 / 8 (38%)
15th Dec '18 Bellator 212 4 0.8 21% 0.8 / 4 (21%)
8th Dec '18 UFC 231 18 3.5 19% 3.5 / 18 (19%)
1st Dec '18 UFC Fight Night 142 15 -5.3 -35% -4.3 / 14 (-31%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
30th Nov '18 TUF Finale 14 -1.9 -13% -1.9 / 14 (-13%)
25th Nov '18 Golden Boy Liddell vs Ortiz 3 5 1.3 26% 1.3 / 5 (26%)
24th Nov '18 UFC Fight Night 141 9 -2.0 -22% -2.0 / 9 (-22%)
17th Nov '18 UFC Fight Night 140 20 -9.2 -46% -9.2 / 20 (-46%)
10th Nov '18 UFC Fight Night Denver 10.5 2.5 24% 2.5 / 10.5 (24%)
3rd Nov '18 UFC 230 11 4.9 45% 4.9 / 11 (45%)
27th Oct '18 UFC Fight Night 138 16 3.1 19% 3.1 / 16 (19%)
6th Oct '18 UFC 229 9 -6.1 -68% -6.1 / 9 (-68%)
15th Sep '18 UFC FIght Night Moscow 3 -3.0 -100% -3.0 / 3 (-100%)
8th Sep '18 UFC 228 10.5 1.7 16% 1.7 / 10.5 (16%)
25th Aug '18 UFC Fight Night 135 11 -1.6 -15% -1.6 / 11 (-15%)
4th Aug '18 UFC 227 19.5 -0.3 -1% -0.3 / 19.5 (-1%)
28th Jul '18 UFC on Fox 30 11.5 2.9 25% 2.9 / 11.5 (25%)
24th Jul '18 DWTNCS 14 2 -2.0 -100% -2.0 / 2 (-100%)
22nd Jul '18 UFC Fight Night 134 20 -5.9 -30% -7.0 / 18.5 (-38%) 1.1 / 1.5 (72%)
14th Jul '18 UFC Fight Night 133 12 -3.8 -32% -3.8 / 12 (-32%)
7th Jul '18 UFC 226 27.5 1.2 4% 2.7 / 21 (13%) -1.5 / 6.5 (-22%)
7th Jul '18 TUF 27 Finale 7.5 -7.5 -100% -7.5 / 7.5 (-100%)
23rd Jun '18 UFC Fight Night 132 20.6 -4.7 -23% -4.7 / 20.6 (-23%)
9th Jun '18 UFC 225 23 5.0 22% 3.9 / 21.5 (18%) 1.1 / 1.5 (73%)
1st Jun '18 UFC Fight Night 131 11 6.8 62% 6.2 / 10 (62%) 0.6 / 1 (60%)
27th May '18 UFC Fight Night 130 11.5 -1.2 -10% -1.9 / 9.5 (-20%) 0.7 / 2 (34%)


Winning Events: 19 (50%)
Losing Events: 19 (50%)

Average Staked Per Event: 16.09 units
Most Staked On One Event: 36.00 units
Best Event: 24.31 units
Worst Event: -12.27 units
Average Event: 0.29 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 7, Units: 56.41
Max Losing Streak: Events: 3, Units: -21.98

akatako diary: Year on Year Profit

Year Bet Won ROI Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Events
Won / Lost (%)
Profit
Per Event
2019 233.5 30.3 13% 19.3 / 186.5 (10%) 11.0 / 47 (23%) 7 / 3 (70%) 3.03
2018 378.1 -19.5 -5% -24.4 / 350.6 (-7%) 2.1 / 23.5 (9%) 2.8 / 4 (69%) 12 / 16 (43%) -0.70

akatako diary: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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akatako diary: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
UFC 590.6 11.3 2% -4.6 / 516.1 (-1%) 13.1 / 70.5 (19%) 2.8 / 4 (69%)
Bellator 14 0.3 2% 0.3 / 14 (2%)
Other 7 -0.7 -10% -0.7 / 7 (-10%)

akatako diary: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 61 (34%) 48 79 % 227.00 10.21 0.17 4%
Slight Favorites 64 (36%) 32 50 % 189.50 -24.36 -0.38 -13%
Slight Underdogs 37 (21%) 17 46 % 94.60 12.30 0.33 13%
Big Underdogs 16 (9%) 4 25 % 26.00 -3.17 -0.20 -12%



Betting Stats By Card Position

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Main Event 37 (21%) 15 41 % 125.50 -25.57 -0.69 -20%
Co-Main Event 27 (15%) 16 59 % 72.10 18.16 0.67 25%
Position 3-5 50 (28%) 27 54 % 153.00 -25.86 -0.52 -17%
6+ (Undercard) 64 (36%) 43 67 % 186.50 28.25 0.44 15%

akatako diary: Profit by Weight Class

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Heavyweight 19 (11%) 11 58 % 61.00 2.73 0.14 4%
Light Heavy 16 (9%) 8 50 % 47.10 -7.55 -0.47 -16%
Middleweight 13 (7%) 6 46 % 37.50 -2.97 -0.23 -8%
Welterweight 32 (18%) 17 53 % 98.00 -10.34 -0.32 -11%
Lightweight 21 (12%) 10 48 % 65.00 -8.84 -0.42 -14%
Featherweight 20 (11%) 14 70 % 60.00 12.00 0.60 20%
Bantamweight 18 (10%) 12 67 % 60.00 3.45 0.19 6%
Flyweight 16 (9%) 10 63 % 45.00 7.31 0.46 16%
               
Women's Fights 23 (13%) 13 57 % 63.50 -0.81 -0.04 -1%
Featherweight 3 (2%) 2 67 % 5.00 4.88 1.63 98%
Bantamweight 3 (2%) 2 67 % 10.00 0.24 0.08 2%
Bantamweight 6 (3%) 3 50 % 15.00 -1.70 -0.28 -11%
Strawweight 11 (6%) 6 55 % 33.50 -4.23 -0.38 -13%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
Big Favorites 4 (100%) 4 100 %
Slight Favorites 0 (0%) 0 0 %
Slight Underdogs 0 (0%) 0 0 %
Big Underdogs 0 (0%) 0 0 %
4 4 100 %

 

Props bets and props within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
>65% chance 12 (50%) 10 83 %
50-65% 9 (38%) 7 78 %
35-50% 1 (4%) 1 100 %
<35% chance 2 (8%) 0 0 %
24 18 75 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type Picks Correct % Correct Avg
Odds
Longest
Odds
Shortest
Odds
1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 6 (25%) 5 83 % 1.61 2.52Pick was correct 1.30Pick was correct 2.3 (39%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 1 (4%) 0 0 % 1.75 1.75Pick was incorrect 1.75Pick was incorrect -1.0 (-100%)
Goes to Decision 1 (4%) 1 100 % 1.35 1.35Pick was correct 1.35Pick was correct 0.4 (35%)
Does not go to Decision 12 (50%) 10 83 % 1.44 1.93Pick was correct 1.11Pick was correct 2.8 (24%)
X Wins by KO 2 (8%) 0 0 % 3.10 3.15Pick was incorrect 3.05Pick was incorrect -2.0 (-100%)
X Wins by Sub 2 (8%) 2 100 % 1.70 1.70Pick was correct 1.70Pick was correct 1.4 (70%)
24 18 75 % 1.58     3.9 (16%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail akatako diary's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date Event Bet Won ROI Fee 1 unit = Start End
27th May UFC Fight Night 130 11.5 -1.2 -10% $10.00 $1,000.00 $988.06
1st Jun UFC Fight Night 131 11 6.8 62% $9.88 $988.06 $1,055.68
9th Jun UFC 225 23 5.0 22% $10.56 $1,055.68 $1,108.17
23rd Jun UFC Fight Night 132 20.6 -4.7 -23% $11.08 $1,108.17 $1,056.53
7th Jul TUF 27 Finale 7.5 -7.5 -100% $10.57 $1,056.53 $977.29
7th Jul UFC 226 27.5 1.2 4% $9.77 $977.29 $989.27
14th Jul UFC Fight Night 133 12 -3.8 -32% $9.89 $989.27 $951.73
22nd Jul UFC Fight Night 134 20 -5.9 -30% $9.52 $951.73 $895.56
24th Jul DWTNCS 14 2 -2.0 -100% $8.96 $895.56 $877.65
28th Jul UFC on Fox 30 11.5 2.9 25% $8.78 $877.65 $903.23
4th Aug UFC 227 19.5 -0.3 -1% $9.03 $903.23 $900.83
25th Aug UFC Fight Night 135 11 -1.6 -15% $9.01 $900.83 $886.29
8th Sep UFC 228 10.5 1.7 16% $8.86 $886.29 $901.04
15th Sep UFC FIght Night Moscow 3 -3.0 -100% $9.01 $901.04 $874.00
6th Oct UFC 229 9 -6.1 -68% $8.74 $874.00 $820.69
27th Oct UFC Fight Night 138 16 3.1 19% $8.21 $820.69 $845.82
3rd Nov UFC 230 11 4.9 45% $8.46 $845.82 $887.35
10th Nov UFC Fight Night Denver 10.5 2.5 24% $8.87 $887.35 $909.88
17th Nov UFC Fight Night 140 20 -9.2 -46% $9.10 $909.88 $825.95
24th Nov UFC Fight Night 141 9 -2.0 -22% $8.26 $825.95 $809.39
25th Nov Golden Boy Liddell vs Ortiz 3 5 1.3 26% $8.09 $809.39 $819.75
30th Nov TUF Finale 14 -1.9 -13% $8.20 $819.75 $804.52
1st Dec UFC Fight Night 142 15 -5.3 -35% $8.05 $804.52 $761.83
8th Dec UFC 231 18 3.5 19% $7.62 $761.83 $788.55
15th Dec Bellator 212 4 0.8 21% $7.89 $788.55 $795.17
15th Dec Fight Night Milwaukee 24 -2.4 -10% $7.95 $795.17 $776.17
15th Dec Bellator 213 6 -2.3 -39% $7.76 $776.17 $758.16
29th Dec UFC 232 26 5.9 23% $7.58 $758.16 $802.67
19th Jan UFC on ESPN+ 1 28 24.3 87% $8.03 $802.67 $997.82
26th Jan Bellator Los Angeles 4 1.8 44% $9.98 $997.82 $1,015.38
2nd Feb UFC Fight Night 144 16 12.4 77% $10.15 $1,015.38 $1,140.88
9th Feb UFC 234 10 4.3 43% $11.41 $1,140.88 $1,189.49
17th Feb UFC on ESPN 1 35 7.7 22% $11.89 $1,189.49 $1,280.60
23rd Feb UFC Fight Night 145 21 0.2 1% $12.81 $1,280.60 $1,282.96
2nd Mar UFC 235 25.5 -0.6 -2% $12.83 $1,282.96 $1,275.52
9th Mar UFC Fight Night 146 32 2.4 7% $12.76 $1,275.52 $1,305.61
16th Mar UFC Fight Night 147 36 -9.7 -27% $13.06 $1,305.61 $1,178.88
23rd Mar UFC Fight Night 148 26 -12.3 -47% $11.79 $1,178.88 $1,034.24


ROI % from starting bank balance: 3.42% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

akatako diary: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result    
1. Mar '19 Curtis Blaydes Justin Willis 1.40 5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
2. Mar '19 John Makdessi Jesus Pinedo 1.35 5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
3. Mar '19 Nathaniel Wood Jose Quinonez 1.31 5 Sub, R2 (2:46) MMA Bookmaker
4. Mar '19 Dominick Reyes Volkan Oezdemir 1.42 4 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
5. Mar '19 Leon Edwards Gunnar Nelson 1.68 4 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
6. Mar '19 Grant Dawson Julian Erosa 1.58 4 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
7. Mar '19 Alex Morono Zak Ottow 1.54 4 TKO, R1 (3:34) MMA Bookmaker
8. Mar '19 Tony Martin Sergio Moraes 1.46 5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
9. Mar '19 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos Curtis Millender 1.98 4 Sub, R1 (2:35) MMA Bookmaker
10. Mar '19 Zabit Magomedsharipov Jeremy Stephens 1.29 5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
11. Mar '19 Cody Stamann Alejandro Perez 1.55 5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
12. Mar '19 Ben Askren Robbie Lawler 1.30 4 Sub, R1 (3:20) MMA Bookmaker
13. Feb '19 Michal Oleksiejczuk Gian Villante 1.54 4 TKO, R1 (1:34) MMA Bookmaker
14. Feb '19 Stefan Struve Marcos Rogerio de Lima 1.82 2 Sub, R2 (2:21) MMA Bookmaker
15. Feb '19 Paul Felder James Vick 1.92 4 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
16. Feb '19 Manny Bermudez Benito Lopez 1.50 4 Sub, R1 (3:9) MMA Bookmaker
17. Feb '19 Luke Sanders Renan Barao 1.65 3 TKO, R2 (1:1) MMA Bookmaker
18. Feb '19 Cynthia Calvillo Cortney Casey 1.30 5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
19. Feb '19 Francis Ngannou Cain Velasquez 2.14 5 TKO, R1 (0:26) MMA Bookmaker
20. Feb '19 Israel Adesanya Anderson Silva 1.23 5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker



Last 20 Losses

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result Hedge?    
1. Mar '19 J.J. Aldrich Maycee Barber 3.18 3 TKO, R2 (3:1) No MMA Bookmaker
2. Mar '19 Eric Shelton Jordan Espinosa 1.72 4 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
3. Mar '19 Deiveson Figueiredo Jussier Formiga 1.69 4 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
4. Mar '19 Stephen Thompson Anthony Pettis 1.29 5 TKO, R2 (4:55) No MMA Bookmaker
5. Mar '19 Joseph Duffy Marc Diakiese 1.51 5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
6. Mar '19 Darren Till Jorge Masvidal 1.20 5 TKO, R2 (3:5) No MMA Bookmaker
7. Mar '19 Tim Means Niko Price 1.49 5 TKO, R1 (4:50) No MMA Bookmaker
8. Mar '19 Derrick Lewis Junior dos Santos 2.48 5 TKO, R2 (1:58) No MMA Bookmaker
9. Mar '19 Anthony Smith Jon Jones 7.20 0.5 U Decision (5 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
10. Mar '19 Cody Garbrandt Pedro Munhoz 1.58 5 TKO, R1 (4:52) No MMA Bookmaker
11. Mar '19 Tyron Woodley Kamaru Usman 1.51 3 U Decision (5 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
12. Feb '19 Jan Blachowicz Thiago Santos 2.02 3 TKO, R3 (0:39) No MMA Bookmaker
13. Feb '19 John Dodson Petr Yan 3.70 3 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
14. Feb '19 Scott Holtzman Nik Lentz 1.54 5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
15. Feb '19 Jimmie Rivera Aljamain Sterling 1.74 5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
16. Dec '18 B.J. Penn Ryan Hall 4.36 1 Sub, R1 (2:46) No MMA Bookmaker
17. Dec '18 Chad Mendes Alex Volkanovski 1.72 3 TKO, R2 (4:14) No MMA Bookmaker
18. Dec '18 Carlos Condit Michael Chiesa 2.32 2 Sub, R2 (0:56) No MMA Bookmaker
19. Dec '18 Gerald Meerschaert Jack Hermansson 2.43 1 Sub, R1 (4:25) No MMA Bookmaker
20. Dec '18 Daniel Hooker Edson Barboza 1.90 3 TKO, R3 (2:19) No MMA Bookmaker

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

akatako diary: Progress Chart

Chart

 

 
 
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