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MMA Handicapper Stats: WillyD

WillyD (willyg187)

MMA MHandicapper - WillyD

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MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats

Straight Fight Picks

Props

Parlays
Right 48 (37%) Right 22 (50%) Right 11 (25%) Right 15 (35%)
Wrong 83 (63%) Wrong 22 (50%) Wrong 33 (75%) Wrong 28 (65%)
Avg Odds 2.60 Avg Odds 2.12 Avg Odds 3.94 Avg Odds 2.34
Units Bet 170.3 Units Bet 81.0 Units Bet 20.1 Units Bet 69.2
Avg Bet 1.30 Avg Bet 1.84 Avg Bet 0.46 Avg Bet 1.61
Units Profit 2.47 Units Profit 16.19 Units Profit 1.67 Units Profit -15.39
ROI % 1% ROI % 20% ROI % 8% ROI % -22%
View Handicapper's Profile

Event by Event Predictions
The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date Event Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
29th Dec '18 UFC 232 12.18 1.6 13% 2.0 / 10.37 (19%) -0.4 / 1.78 (-23%) -0.0 / 0.03 (-100%)
15th Dec '18 Fight Night Milwaukee 6.9 0.6 9% 4.0 / 3.5 (114%) -1.1 / 1.1 (-100%) -2.3 / 2.3 (-100%)
8th Dec '18 UFC 231 11.29 -3.2 -28% 3.4 / 4.73 (71%) -6.6 / 6.56 (-100%)
1st Dec '18 UFC Fight Night 142 13.1 -1.3 -10% -0.9 / 0.85 (-100%) -0.4 / 12.25 (-3%)
30th Nov '18 TUF Finale 2.87 -0.8 -27% -2.6 / 2.57 (-100%) 1.8 / 0.3 (600%)
25th Nov '18 Golden Boy Liddell vs Ortiz 3 2 1.5 73% 1.5 / 2 (73%)
24th Nov '18 UFC Fight Night 141 7.45 0.7 9% 0.3 / 1.25 (26%) -0.2 / 1.7 (-12%) 0.6 / 4.5 (13%)
17th Nov '18 UFC Fight Night 140 11 -7.6 -69% -8.4 / 8.38 (-100%) 1.1 / 1 (110%) -0.3 / 1.62 (-21%)
10th Nov '18 UFC Fight Night Denver 13.28 6.2 47% 6.3 / 5.88 (108%) 0.3 / 2.25 (11%) -0.4 / 5.15 (-8%)
3rd Nov '18 UFC 230 18.72 10.2 54% 3.5 / 5.5 (64%) -1.6 / 3.5 (-46%) 8.3 / 9.72 (85%)
13th Oct '18 Bellator 208 0.58 -0.6 -100% -0.6 / 0.58 (-100%)
12th Oct '18 Bellator 207 3 1.7 55% 1.7 / 3 (55%)
6th Oct '18 UFC 229 16.96 -4.9 -29% -2.4 / 4.36 (-54%) 3.0 / 2.65 (115%) -5.6 / 9.95 (-57%)
29th Sep '18 Bellator 206 5 10.0 200% 10.0 / 5 (200%)
22nd Sep '18 UFC Fight Night Sao Paulo 7.99 -2.9 -37% -1.5 / 1.5 (-100%) -1.7 / 1.74 (-100%) 0.3 / 4.75 (6%)
15th Sep '18 UFC FIght Night Moscow 6 0.3 5% 1.3 / 5 (26%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
8th Sep '18 UFC 228 5.71 2.3 40% 3.6 / 4.36 (83%) -1.4 / 1.35 (-100%)
25th Aug '18 UFC Fight Night 135 16 -12.2 -76% -6.0 / 6 (-100%) 1.8 / 2 (91%) -8.0 / 8 (-100%)
4th Aug '18 UFC 227 9.25 2.1 22% 2.5 / 8 (31%) -0.4 / 1.25 (-34%)
31st Jul '18 DWTNCS 15 1 -1.0 -100% -1.0 / 1 (-100%)


Winning Events: 11 (55%)
Losing Events: 9 (45%)

Year on Year Profit
Year Bet Won ROI Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%)		 Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%)		 Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%)		 Events
Won / Lost (%)		 Profit
Per Event
2018 170.28 2.5 1% 16.2 / 80.98 (20%) 1.7 / 20.12 (8%) -15.4 / 69.18 (-22%) 11 / 9 (55%) 0.12

Yearly Straight Pick Stats
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Profit / Loss by Organization
Organization Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
UFC 158.7 -9.1 -6% 6.1 / 71.4 (9%) 1.7 / 20.12 (8%) -16.9 / 67.18 (-25%)
Bellator 8.58 11.1 129% 11.1 / 8.58 (129%)
Other 3 0.5 15% -1.0 / 1 (-100%) 1.5 / 2 (73%)

Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 3 (7%) 3 100 % 10.50 4.30 1.43 41%
Slight Favorites 13 (30%) 6 46 % 35.02 -5.59 -0.43 -16%
Slight Underdogs 21 (48%) 9 43 % 26.88 4.04 0.19 15%
Big Underdogs 7 (16%) 4 57 % 8.58 13.43 1.92 157%



Betting Stats By Card Position

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Main Event 6 (14%) 4 67 % 16.49 10.92 1.82 66%
Co-Main Event 4 (9%) 3 75 % 7.00 3.04 0.76 43%
Position 3-5 13 (30%) 5 38 % 22.48 -0.36 -0.03 -2%
6+ (Undercard) 20 (45%) 9 45 % 33.90 1.70 0.08 5%

by Weight Class
  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Heavyweight 6 (14%) 2 33 % 8.63 -3.45 -0.58 -40%
Light Heavy 3 (7%) 3 100 % 7.00 7.12 2.37 102%
Middleweight 4 (9%) 3 75 % 10.85 12.15 3.04 112%
Welterweight 7 (16%) 2 29 % 7.57 -3.39 -0.48 -45%
Lightweight 9 (20%) 5 56 % 14.50 4.50 0.50 31%
Featherweight 5 (11%) 4 80 % 9.61 7.90 1.58 82%
Bantamweight 4 (9%) 1 25 % 8.16 -0.18 -0.05 -2%
Flyweight 1 (2%) 0 % 2.22 -2.22 -2.22 -100%
               
Women's Fights 5 (11%) 2 40 % 12.44 -6.24 -1.25 -50%
Featherweight 1 (2%) 0 % 3.00 -3.00 -3.00 -100%
Bantamweight 1 (2%) 1 100 % 1.11 0.89 0.89 80%
Strawweight 3 (7%) 1 33 % 8.33 -4.13 -1.38 -50%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
Big Favorites 70 (82%) 57 81 %
Slight Favorites 14 (16%) 4 29 %
Slight Underdogs 1 (1%) 0 0 %
Big Underdogs 0 (0%) 0 0 %
85 61 72 %

 

Props bets and props within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
>65% chance 4 (6%) 4 100 %
50-65% 11 (17%) 5 45 %
35-50% 8 (12%) 1 13 %
<35% chance 43 (65%) 9 21 %
66 19 29 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types
Prop Type Picks Correct % Correct Avg
Odds		 Longest
Odds		 Shortest
Odds		 1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 11 (17%) 4 36 % 1.83 3.50Pick was incorrect 1.50Pick was correct -4.5 (-41%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 1 (2%) 1 100 % 1.50 1.50Pick was correct 1.50Pick was correct 0.5 (50%)
Goes to Decision 2 (3%) 2 100 % 1.53 1.57Pick was correct 1.50Pick was correct 1.1 (53%)
Does not go to Decision 1 (2%) 1 100 % 1.44 1.44Pick was correct 1.44Pick was correct 0.4 (44%)
Fight Starts Round X 1 (2%) 0 0 % 1.83 1.83Pick was incorrect 1.83Pick was incorrect -1.0 (-100%)
X Wins by KO 12 (18%) 6 50 % 3.67 11.00Pick was incorrect 1.91Pick was correct 16.0 (133%)
X Wins by Sub 18 (27%) 4 22 % 4.64 13.00Pick was incorrect 2.88Pick was incorrect 0.8 (4%)
X Wins by Decision 15 (23%) 0 0 % 3.71 10.00Pick was incorrect 2.40Pick was incorrect -15.0 (-100%)
X Wins Inside Distance 4 (6%) 1 25 % 2.48 3.00Pick was incorrect 1.83Pick was incorrect -1.5 (-38%)
Others 1 (2%) 0 0 % 6.50 6.50Pick was incorrect 6.50Pick was incorrect -1.0 (-100%)
66 19 29 % 2.98     -4.3 (-7%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail handicapper's bets
If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date Event Bet Won ROI Fee 1 unit = Start End
31st Jul DWTNCS 15 1 -1.0 -100% $10.00 $1,000.00 $990.00
4th Aug UFC 227 9.25 2.1 22% $9.90 $990.00 $1,010.54
25th Aug UFC Fight Night 135 16 -12.2 -76% $10.11 $1,010.54 $887.46
8th Sep UFC 228 5.71 2.3 40% $8.87 $887.46 $907.59
15th Sep UFC FIght Night Moscow 6 0.3 5% $9.08 $907.59 $910.32
22nd Sep UFC Fight Night Sao Paulo 7.99 -2.9 -37% $9.10 $910.32 $883.63
29th Sep Bellator 206 5 10.0 200% $8.84 $883.63 $971.99
6th Oct UFC 229 16.96 -4.9 -29% $9.72 $971.99 $923.95
12th Oct Bellator 207 3 1.7 55% $9.24 $923.95 $939.20
13th Oct Bellator 208 0.58 -0.6 -100% $9.39 $939.20 $933.75
3rd Nov UFC 230 18.72 10.2 54% $9.34 $933.75 $1,028.53
10th Nov UFC Fight Night Denver 13.28 6.2 47% $10.29 $1,028.53 $1,092.15
17th Nov UFC Fight Night 140 11 -7.6 -69% $10.92 $1,092.15 $1,008.85
24th Nov UFC Fight Night 141 7.45 0.7 9% $10.09 $1,008.85 $1,015.95
25th Nov Golden Boy Liddell vs Ortiz 3 2 1.5 73% $10.16 $1,015.95 $1,030.76
30th Nov TUF Finale 2.87 -0.8 -27% $10.31 $1,030.76 $1,022.83
1st Dec UFC Fight Night 142 13.1 -1.3 -10% $10.23 $1,022.83 $1,009.99
8th Dec UFC 231 11.29 -3.2 -28% $10.10 $1,009.99 $977.66
15th Dec Fight Night Milwaukee 6.9 0.6 9% $9.78 $977.66 $983.53
29th Dec UFC 232 12.18 1.6 13% $9.84 $983.53 $998.91


ROI % from starting bank balance: -0.11% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)
Last 20 Wins
  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result    
1. Dec '18 Urijah Hall Bevon Lewis 2.00 0.5 TKO, R3 (1:32) MMA Bookmaker
2. Dec '18 Michael Chiesa Carlos Condit 1.59 1.27 Sub, R2 (0:56) MMA Bookmaker
3. Dec '18 Ryan Hall B.J. Penn 1.87 5 Sub, R1 (2:46) MMA Bookmaker
4. Dec '18 Mike Rodriguez Adam Milstead 2.50 1.5 TKO, R1 (2:59) MMA Bookmaker
5. Dec '18 Joaquim Silva Jared Gordon 2.50 1.5 TKO, R3 (2:39) MMA Bookmaker
6. Dec '18 Thiago Santos Jimi Manuwa 1.63 2.5 TKO, R2 (0:41) MMA Bookmaker
7. Dec '18 Max Holloway Brian Ortega 1.80 2.23 TKO, R4 (5:0) MMA Bookmaker
8. Nov '18 Alistair Overeem Sergey Pavlovich 2.10 0.75 TKO, R1 (4:21) MMA Bookmaker
9. Nov '18 Yair Rodriguez Chan Sung Jung 2.20 2.18 TKO, R5 (4:59) MMA Bookmaker
10. Nov '18 Bobby Moffett Chas Skelly 2.00 1.2 Sub, R2 (2:43) MMA Bookmaker
11. Nov '18 Donald Cerrone Mike Perry 2.88 0.75 Sub, R1 (4:46) MMA Bookmaker
12. Nov '18 Mike Trizano Luis Pena 3.80 0.75 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
13. Nov '18 Sheymon da Silva Moraes Julio Arce 4.00 0.5 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
14. Nov '18 Israel Adesanya Derek Brunson 1.40 5 TKO, R1 (4:51) MMA Bookmaker
15. Oct '18 Mandel Nallo Carrington Banks 2.10 0.5 TKO, R2 (0:57) MMA Bookmaker
16. Oct '18 Ryan Bader Matt Mitrione 1.44 2.5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
17. Oct '18 Aspen Ladd Tonya Evinger 1.80 1.11 TKO, R1 (3:26) MMA Bookmaker
18. Sep '18 Jan Blachowicz Nikita Krylov 2.10 3 Sub, R2 (2:41) MMA Bookmaker
19. Sep '18 Gegard Mousasi Rory MacDonald 3.00 5 TKO, R2 (3:23) MMA Bookmaker
20. Sep '18 Jimmie Rivera John Dodson 1.83 4.36 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker



Last 20 Losses

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result Hedge?    
1. Dec '18 Andrei Arlovski Walt Harris 2.63 0.3 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
2. Dec '18 Brian Kelleher Montel Jackson 2.40 0.3 Sub, R1 (1:40) No MMA Bookmaker
3. Dec '18 Cat Zingano Megan Anderson 1.73 3 TKO, R1 (1:1) Yes MMA Bookmaker
4. Dec '18 Jim Miller Charles Oliveira 3.40 0.5 Sub, R1 (1:15) No MMA Bookmaker
5. Nov '18 Darren Stewart Edmen Shahbazyan 2.00 0.35 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
6. Nov '18 Alex Perez Joseph Benavidez 1.80 2.22 TKO, R1 (4:19) No MMA Bookmaker
7. Nov '18 David Zawada Li Jingliang 2.63 0.5 TKO, R3 (4:7) No MMA Bookmaker
8. Nov '18 Bartosz Fabinski Michel Prazeres 3.00 0.5 Sub, R1 (1:2) Yes MMA Bookmaker
9. Nov '18 Hector Aldana Laureano Staropoli 2.63 2 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
10. Nov '18 Bartosz Fabinski Michel Prazeres 2.75 1 Sub, R1 (1:2) Yes MMA Bookmaker
11. Nov '18 Hector Aldana Laureano Staropoli 2.63 1.55 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
12. Nov '18 Poliana Botelho Cynthia Calvillo 1.80 3.33 Sub, R1 (4:48) No MMA Bookmaker
13. Nov '18 Thiago Moises Beneil Dariush 2.25 1 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
14. Oct '18 Chael Sonnen Fedor Emelianenko 3.00 0.58 TKO, R1 (4:45) No MMA Bookmaker
15. Oct '18 Alexander Volkov Derrick Lewis 1.67 2.5 TKO, R3 (4:49) No MMA Bookmaker
16. Oct '18 Gray Maynard Nik Lentz 2.80 0.75 TKO, R2 (1:19) No MMA Bookmaker
17. Sep '18 Renan Barao Andre Ewell 1.80 1.5 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
18. Sep '18 Andrei Arlovski Shamil Abdurakhimov 2.10 2 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
19. Aug '18 Angela Hill Cortney Casey 1.80 2 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
20. Aug '18 James Vick Justin Gaethje 1.67 4 TKO, R1 (1:27) No MMA Bookmaker

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

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