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MMA Handicapper Stats: WillyD

WillyD (willyg187)

MMA MHandicapper - WillyD

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MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats

Straight Fight Picks

Props

Parlays
Right 81 (38%) Right 35 (52%) Right 23 (31%) Right 23 (32%)
Wrong 134 (62%) Wrong 32 (48%) Wrong 52 (69%) Wrong 50 (68%)
Avg Odds 2.63 Avg Odds 2.11 Avg Odds 3.40 Avg Odds 2.62
Units Bet 264.4 Units Bet 115.8 Units Bet 43.6 Units Bet 105.0
Avg Bet 1.23 Avg Bet 1.73 Avg Bet 0.58 Avg Bet 1.44
Units Profit 6.92 Units Profit 21.87 Units Profit 7.34 Units Profit -22.28
ROI % 3% ROI % 19% ROI % 17% ROI % -21%
View Handicapper's Profile

WillyD : Event by Event Predictions
The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date Event Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
23rd Mar '19 UFC Fight Night 148 9.91 2.2 22% 2.0 / 5.4 (37%) 1.2 / 1.7 (69%) -1.0 / 2.81 (-36%)
16th Mar '19 UFC Fight Night 147 12.4 -1.3 -10% -0.7 / 3.75 (-20%) -0.8 / 0.8 (-100%) 0.3 / 7.85 (4%)
9th Mar '19 UFC Fight Night 146 13.44 -5.7 -43% -2.5 / 4.5 (-56%) 0.8 / 0.8 (100%) -4.0 / 8.14 (-49%)
2nd Mar '19 UFC 235 8.35 2.3 27% 2.9 / 3.65 (79%) -1.6 / 1.6 (-100%) 1.0 / 3.1 (33%)
23rd Feb '19 UFC Fight Night 145 9.56 5.0 53% 2.6 / 5.5 (47%) -0.3 / 0.25 (-100%) 2.7 / 3.81 (71%)
17th Feb '19 UFC on ESPN 1 7.75 -0.7 -9% 1.6 / 4 (41%) -0.3 / 1.75 (-18%) -2.0 / 2 (-100%)
9th Feb '19 UFC 234 6.37 1.0 15% -1.0 / 4.12 (-25%) 2.0 / 2.25 (89%)
9th Feb '19 Bellator Newcastle 2.2 -2.2 -100% -2.2 / 2.2 (-100%)
2nd Feb '19 UFC Fight Night 144 6.5 -4.1 -63% -2.5 / 2.5 (-100%) 0.6 / 1.85 (31%) -2.2 / 2.15 (-100%)
26th Jan '19 Bellator Los Angeles 3.2 2.0 62% 2.0 / 3.2 (62%)
19th Jan '19 UFC on ESPN+ 1 14.4 6.0 41% 2.3 / 5.5 (42%) 5.1 / 7.4 (69%) -1.5 / 1.5 (-100%)
29th Dec '18 UFC 232 12.18 1.6 13% 2.0 / 10.37 (19%) -0.4 / 1.78 (-23%) -0.0 / 0.03 (-100%)
15th Dec '18 Fight Night Milwaukee 6.9 0.6 9% 4.0 / 3.5 (114%) -1.1 / 1.1 (-100%) -2.3 / 2.3 (-100%)
8th Dec '18 UFC 231 11.29 -3.2 -28% 3.4 / 4.73 (71%) -6.6 / 6.56 (-100%)
1st Dec '18 UFC Fight Night 142 13.1 -1.3 -10% -0.9 / 0.85 (-100%) -0.4 / 12.25 (-3%)
30th Nov '18 TUF Finale 2.87 -0.8 -27% -2.6 / 2.57 (-100%) 1.8 / 0.3 (600%)
25th Nov '18 Golden Boy Liddell vs Ortiz 3 2 1.5 73% 1.5 / 2 (73%)
24th Nov '18 UFC Fight Night 141 7.45 0.7 9% 0.3 / 1.25 (26%) -0.2 / 1.7 (-12%) 0.6 / 4.5 (13%)
17th Nov '18 UFC Fight Night 140 11 -7.6 -69% -8.4 / 8.38 (-100%) 1.1 / 1 (110%) -0.3 / 1.62 (-21%)
10th Nov '18 UFC Fight Night Denver 13.28 6.2 47% 6.3 / 5.88 (108%) 0.3 / 2.25 (11%) -0.4 / 5.15 (-8%)
3rd Nov '18 UFC 230 18.72 10.2 54% 3.5 / 5.5 (64%) -1.6 / 3.5 (-46%) 8.3 / 9.72 (85%)
13th Oct '18 Bellator 208 0.58 -0.6 -100% -0.6 / 0.58 (-100%)
12th Oct '18 Bellator 207 3 1.7 55% 1.7 / 3 (55%)
6th Oct '18 UFC 229 16.96 -4.9 -29% -2.4 / 4.36 (-54%) 3.0 / 2.65 (115%) -5.6 / 9.95 (-57%)
29th Sep '18 Bellator 206 5 10.0 200% 10.0 / 5 (200%)
22nd Sep '18 UFC Fight Night Sao Paulo 7.99 -2.9 -37% -1.5 / 1.5 (-100%) -1.7 / 1.74 (-100%) 0.3 / 4.75 (6%)
15th Sep '18 UFC FIght Night Moscow 6 0.3 5% 1.3 / 5 (26%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
8th Sep '18 UFC 228 5.71 2.3 40% 3.6 / 4.36 (83%) -1.4 / 1.35 (-100%)
25th Aug '18 UFC Fight Night 135 16 -12.2 -76% -6.0 / 6 (-100%) 1.8 / 2 (91%) -8.0 / 8 (-100%)
4th Aug '18 UFC 227 9.25 2.1 22% 2.5 / 8 (31%) -0.4 / 1.25 (-34%)
31st Jul '18 DWTNCS 15 1 -1.0 -100% -1.0 / 1 (-100%)


Winning Events: 17 (55%)
Losing Events: 14 (45%)

Average Staked Per Event: 8.53 units
Most Staked On One Event: 18.72 units
Best Event: 10.15 units
Worst Event: -12.18 units
Average Event: 0.22 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 4, Units: 16.34
Max Losing Streak: Events: 3, Units: -12.18

WillyD : Year on Year Profit
Year Bet Won ROI Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%)		 Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%)		 Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%)		 Events
Won / Lost (%)		 Profit
Per Event
2019 94.08 4.5 5% 5.7 / 34.8 (16%) 5.7 / 23.47 (24%) -6.9 / 35.81 (-19%) 6 / 5 (55%) 0.40
2018 170.28 2.5 1% 16.2 / 80.98 (20%) 1.7 / 20.12 (8%) -15.4 / 69.18 (-22%) 11 / 9 (55%) 0.12

WillyD : Yearly Straight Pick Stats
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WillyD : Profit / Loss by Organization
Organization Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
UFC 247.38 -4.4 -2% 11.8 / 106.2 (11%) 5.4 / 40.39 (13%) -21.5 / 100.79 (-21%)
Bellator 13.98 10.9 78% 11.1 / 8.58 (129%) 2.0 / 3.2 (62%) -2.2 / 2.2 (-100%)
Other 3 0.5 15% -1.0 / 1 (-100%) 1.5 / 2 (73%)

WillyD : Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 5 (7%) 5 100 % 16.50 6.31 1.26 38%
Slight Favorites 19 (28%) 10 53 % 45.67 -1.47 -0.08 -3%
Slight Underdogs 31 (46%) 12 39 % 41.63 -2.51 -0.08 -6%
Big Underdogs 12 (18%) 8 67 % 11.98 19.53 1.63 163%



Betting Stats By Card Position

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Main Event 7 (10%) 5 71 % 17.49 12.92 1.85 74%
Co-Main Event 8 (12%) 5 63 % 14.25 1.29 0.16 9%
Position 3-5 18 (27%) 8 44 % 32.38 2.08 0.12 6%
6+ (Undercard) 33 (49%) 16 48 % 50.55 4.69 0.14 9%

WillyD : Profit by Weight Class
  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Heavyweight 9 (13%) 4 44 % 13.63 -1.95 -0.22 -14%
Light Heavy 4 (6%) 3 75 % 8.00 6.12 1.53 77%
Middleweight 6 (9%) 4 67 % 13.50 12.52 2.09 93%
Welterweight 13 (19%) 6 46 % 16.82 -2.63 -0.20 -16%
Lightweight 10 (15%) 5 50 % 17.00 3.57 0.36 21%
Featherweight 9 (13%) 7 78 % 14.01 12.42 1.38 89%
Bantamweight 6 (9%) 2 33 % 11.66 -1.05 -0.18 -9%
Flyweight 1 (1%) 0 % 2.22 -2.22 -2.22 -100%
               
Women's Fights 9 (13%) 4 44 % 18.94 -4.92 -0.55 -26%
Featherweight 1 (1%) 0 % 3.00 -3.00 -3.00 -100%
Bantamweight 1 (1%) 1 100 % 1.11 0.89 0.89 80%
Bantamweight 2 (3%) 2 100 % 4.50 3.32 1.66 74%
Strawweight 5 (7%) 1 20 % 10.33 -6.13 -1.23 -59%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
Big Favorites 101 (83%) 79 78 %
Slight Favorites 18 (15%) 7 39 %
Slight Underdogs 2 (2%) 1 50 %
Big Underdogs 0 (0%) 0 0 %
121 87 72 %

 

Props bets and props within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
>65% chance 9 (7%) 8 89 %
50-65% 22 (17%) 10 45 %
35-50% 21 (16%) 8 38 %
<35% chance 78 (60%) 18 23 %
130 44 34 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types
Prop Type Picks Correct % Correct Avg
Odds		 Longest
Odds		 Shortest
Odds		 1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 16 (12%) 8 50 % 1.67 3.50Pick was incorrect 1.20Pick was correct -4.3 (-27%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 1 (1%) 1 100 % 1.50 1.50Pick was correct 1.50Pick was correct 0.5 (50%)
Goes to Decision 5 (4%) 3 60 % 1.66 2.50Pick was incorrect 1.30Pick was incorrect -0.1 (-1%)
Does not go to Decision 2 (2%) 2 100 % 1.74 2.20Pick was correct 1.44Pick was correct 1.6 (82%)
Fight Starts Round X 1 (1%) 0 0 % 1.83 1.83Pick was incorrect 1.83Pick was incorrect -1.0 (-100%)
X Wins by KO 22 (17%) 7 32 % 3.21 11.00Pick was incorrect 1.80Pick was incorrect 9.0 (41%)
X Wins by Sub 25 (19%) 8 32 % 4.24 13.00Pick was incorrect 2.75Pick was correct 6.1 (24%)
X Wins by Decision 42 (32%) 9 21 % 3.09 10.00Pick was incorrect 1.57Pick was correct -18.3 (-44%)
X Wins Inside Distance 15 (12%) 6 40 % 2.75 9.00Pick was incorrect 1.62Pick was correct 3.1 (20%)
Others 1 (1%) 0 0 % 6.50 6.50Pick was incorrect 6.50Pick was incorrect -1.0 (-100%)
130 44 34 % 2.77     -4.4 (-3%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail WillyD 's bets
If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date Event Bet Won ROI Fee 1 unit = Start End
31st Jul DWTNCS 15 1 -1.0 -100% $10.00 $1,000.00 $990.00
4th Aug UFC 227 9.25 2.1 22% $9.90 $990.00 $1,010.54
25th Aug UFC Fight Night 135 16 -12.2 -76% $10.11 $1,010.54 $887.46
8th Sep UFC 228 5.71 2.3 40% $8.87 $887.46 $907.59
15th Sep UFC FIght Night Moscow 6 0.3 5% $9.08 $907.59 $910.32
22nd Sep UFC Fight Night Sao Paulo 7.99 -2.9 -37% $9.10 $910.32 $883.63
29th Sep Bellator 206 5 10.0 200% $8.84 $883.63 $971.99
6th Oct UFC 229 16.96 -4.9 -29% $9.72 $971.99 $923.95
12th Oct Bellator 207 3 1.7 55% $9.24 $923.95 $939.20
13th Oct Bellator 208 0.58 -0.6 -100% $9.39 $939.20 $933.75
3rd Nov UFC 230 18.72 10.2 54% $9.34 $933.75 $1,028.53
10th Nov UFC Fight Night Denver 13.28 6.2 47% $10.29 $1,028.53 $1,092.15
17th Nov UFC Fight Night 140 11 -7.6 -69% $10.92 $1,092.15 $1,008.85
24th Nov UFC Fight Night 141 7.45 0.7 9% $10.09 $1,008.85 $1,015.95
25th Nov Golden Boy Liddell vs Ortiz 3 2 1.5 73% $10.16 $1,015.95 $1,030.76
30th Nov TUF Finale 2.87 -0.8 -27% $10.31 $1,030.76 $1,022.83
1st Dec UFC Fight Night 142 13.1 -1.3 -10% $10.23 $1,022.83 $1,009.99
8th Dec UFC 231 11.29 -3.2 -28% $10.10 $1,009.99 $977.66
15th Dec Fight Night Milwaukee 6.9 0.6 9% $9.78 $977.66 $983.53
29th Dec UFC 232 12.18 1.6 13% $9.84 $983.53 $998.91
19th Jan UFC on ESPN+ 1 14.4 6.0 41% $9.99 $998.91 $1,058.35
26th Jan Bellator Los Angeles 3.2 2.0 62% $10.58 $1,058.35 $1,079.35
2nd Feb UFC Fight Night 144 6.5 -4.1 -63% $10.79 $1,079.35 $1,035.36
9th Feb Bellator Newcastle 2.2 -2.2 -100% $10.35 $1,035.36 $1,012.59
9th Feb UFC 234 6.37 1.0 15% $10.13 $1,012.59 $1,022.53
17th Feb UFC on ESPN 1 7.75 -0.7 -9% $10.23 $1,022.53 $1,015.57
23rd Feb UFC Fight Night 145 9.56 5.0 53% $10.16 $1,015.57 $1,066.62
2nd Mar UFC 235 8.35 2.3 27% $10.67 $1,066.62 $1,091.06
9th Mar UFC Fight Night 146 13.44 -5.7 -43% $10.91 $1,091.06 $1,028.59
16th Mar UFC Fight Night 147 12.4 -1.3 -10% $10.29 $1,028.59 $1,015.56
23rd Mar UFC Fight Night 148 9.91 2.2 22% $10.16 $1,015.56 $1,037.57


ROI % from starting bank balance: 3.76% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

WillyD : Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)
Last 20 Wins
  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result    
1. Mar '19 Chris Gutierrez Ryan MacDonald 1.57 2.5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
2. Mar '19 Curtis Blaydes Justin Willis 1.40 2.5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
3. Mar '19 Mike Grundy Nad Narimani 3.00 1 TKO, R2 (4:42) MMA Bookmaker
4. Mar '19 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos Curtis Millender 2.00 1 Sub, R1 (2:35) MMA Bookmaker
5. Mar '19 Diego Sanchez Mickey Gall 3.25 0.5 TKO, R2 (4:13) MMA Bookmaker
6. Mar '19 Edmen Shahbazyan Charles Byrd 1.83 1.65 TKO, R1 (0:38) MMA Bookmaker
7. Mar '19 Diego Sanchez Mickey Gall 3.75 0.5 TKO, R2 (4:13) MMA Bookmaker
8. Feb '19 Liz Carmouche Lucie Pudilova 1.80 2.5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
9. Feb '19 Damir Hadzovic Marco Polo Reyes 2.38 1.5 TKO, R2 (2:3) MMA Bookmaker
10. Feb '19 Aljamain Sterling Jimmie Rivera 2.63 1 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
11. Feb '19 Francis Ngannou Cain Velasquez 3.00 1 TKO, R1 (0:26) MMA Bookmaker
12. Jan '19 Paige VanZant Rachael Ostovich 1.66 2 Sub, R2 (1:50) MMA Bookmaker
13. Jan '19 Gregor Gillespie Yancy Medeiros 1.29 3.5 TKO, R2 (4:59) MMA Bookmaker
14. Dec '18 Urijah Hall Bevon Lewis 2.00 0.5 TKO, R3 (1:32) MMA Bookmaker
15. Dec '18 Michael Chiesa Carlos Condit 1.59 1.27 Sub, R2 (0:56) MMA Bookmaker
16. Dec '18 Ryan Hall B.J. Penn 1.87 5 Sub, R1 (2:46) MMA Bookmaker
17. Dec '18 Mike Rodriguez Adam Milstead 2.50 1.5 TKO, R1 (2:59) MMA Bookmaker
18. Dec '18 Joaquim Silva Jared Gordon 2.50 1.5 TKO, R3 (2:39) MMA Bookmaker
19. Dec '18 Thiago Santos Jimi Manuwa 1.63 2.5 TKO, R2 (0:41) MMA Bookmaker
20. Dec '18 Max Holloway Brian Ortega 1.80 2.23 TKO, R4 (5:0) MMA Bookmaker



Last 20 Losses

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result Hedge?    
1. Mar '19 Steven Peterson Luis Pena 3.25 0.4 U Decision (3 rounds) Yes MMA Bookmaker
2. Mar '19 John Phillips Jack Marshman 2.30 1 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
3. Mar '19 Gunnar Nelson Leon Edwards 2.20 1.75 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
4. Mar '19 Ben Rothwell Blagoy Ivanov 2.10 1.5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
5. Mar '19 Curtis Millender Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 2.00 2 Sub, R1 (2:35) Yes MMA Bookmaker
6. Mar '19 Misha Cirkunov Johnny Walker 2.45 1 TKO, R1 (0:36) No MMA Bookmaker
7. Feb '19 Marco Polo Reyes Damir Hadzovic 2.00 1.5 TKO, R2 (2:3) No MMA Bookmaker
8. Feb '19 Alexandra Albu Emily Whitmire 1.91 0.5 Sub, R1 (1:1) No MMA Bookmaker
9. Feb '19 Alexandra Albu Emily Whitmire 1.80 1.5 Sub, R1 (1:1) No MMA Bookmaker
10. Feb '19 Ricardo Ramos Said Nurmagomedov 2.10 2.5 TKO, R1 (2:28) No MMA Bookmaker
11. Dec '18 Andrei Arlovski Walt Harris 2.63 0.3 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
12. Dec '18 Brian Kelleher Montel Jackson 2.40 0.3 Sub, R1 (1:40) No MMA Bookmaker
13. Dec '18 Cat Zingano Megan Anderson 1.73 3 TKO, R1 (1:1) Yes MMA Bookmaker
14. Dec '18 Jim Miller Charles Oliveira 3.40 0.5 Sub, R1 (1:15) No MMA Bookmaker
15. Nov '18 Darren Stewart Edmen Shahbazyan 2.00 0.35 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
16. Nov '18 Alex Perez Joseph Benavidez 1.80 2.22 TKO, R1 (4:19) No MMA Bookmaker
17. Nov '18 David Zawada Li Jingliang 2.63 0.5 TKO, R3 (4:7) No MMA Bookmaker
18. Nov '18 Bartosz Fabinski Michel Prazeres 3.00 0.5 Sub, R1 (1:2) Yes MMA Bookmaker
19. Nov '18 Hector Aldana Laureano Staropoli 2.63 2 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
20. Nov '18 Bartosz Fabinski Michel Prazeres 2.75 1 Sub, R1 (1:2) Yes MMA Bookmaker

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

WillyD : Progress Chart
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