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MMA Handicapper Stats: Josh Baxter

Josh Baxter (Jbaxstar)

MMA MHandicapper - Josh Baxter

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	34 (52%)	Right	25 (63%)	Right	5 (33%)	Right	4 (36%)
Wrong	32 (48%)	Wrong	15 (38%)	Wrong	10 (67%)	Wrong	7 (64%)
Avg Odds	1.78	Avg Odds	1.63	Avg Odds	1.89	Avg Odds	2.46
Units Bet	177.4	Units Bet	139.8	Units Bet	22.8	Units Bet	14.8
Avg Bet	2.69	Avg Bet	3.50	Avg Bet	1.52	Avg Bet	1.34
Units Profit	-0.94	Units Profit	9.42	Units Profit	-7.15	Units Profit	-3.22
ROI %	-1%	ROI %	7%	ROI %	-31%	ROI %	-22%

Josh Baxter: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
12th Oct '18	Bellator 207	10	3.6	36%	3.6 / 10 (36%)
25th Aug '18	UFC Fight Night 135	24.6	8.2	33%	8.2 / 24.6 (33%)
9th Jun '18	UFC 225	36.55	-2.7	-7%	-1.0 / 32.8 (-3%)	-2.8 / 2.75 (-100%)	1.1 / 1 (108%)
19th May '18	UFC Fight Night 129	12.55	-9.6	-76%	-3.2 / 6.15 (-52%)	-4.4 / 4.4 (-100%)	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
3rd Mar '18	UFC 222	20.4	-3.7	-18%	-2.2 / 18.9 (-11%)		-1.5 / 1.5 (-100%)
24th Feb '18	UFC on Fox 28	8.15	-6.1	-74%		-2.3 / 4.4 (-52%)	-3.8 / 3.75 (-100%)
27th Jan '18	UFC on Fox 27	2	2.2	110%			2.2 / 2 (110%)
20th Jan '18	UFC 220	19.8	-2.4	-12%	-2.4 / 17.6 (-14%)	0.5 / 1.7 (29%)	-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)
20th Jan '18	Bellator 192	5.05	1.5	30%	2.0 / 4.55 (44%)	-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)
14th Jan '18	UFC Fight Night 124	10.31	-2.1	-21%	-2.4 / 5.9 (-42%)	-0.7 / 2.89 (-24%)	1.0 / 1.52 (66%)
16th Dec '17	UFC on Fox 26 Lawler vs. dos Anjos	10.5	9.0	86%	7.0 / 9.75 (72%)		2.0 / 0.75 (267%)
15th Dec '17	Bellator 191	5.5	1.0	18%	1.0 / 5.5 (18%)
9th Dec '17	UFC Fight Night 123	4.35	-1.2	-28%	-2.2 / 2.2 (-100%)	1.0 / 2.15 (47%)
9th Dec '17	Bellator 190	0.5	-0.5	-100%			-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)
2nd Dec '17	UFC 218	4	2.0	50%		2.0 / 4 (50%)
2nd Dec '17	TUF 26 Finale	3.13	-0.3	-8%	1.0 / 1.88 (53%)		-1.3 / 1.25 (-100%)

Winning Events: 7 (44%)
Losing Events: 9 (56%)

Average Staked Per Event: 11.09 units
Most Staked On One Event: 36.55 units
Best Event: 9.00 units
Worst Event: -9.60 units
Average Event: -0.06 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 2, Units: 11.84
Max Losing Streak: Events: 4, Units: -21.99

Josh Baxter: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2018	149.41	-11.0	-7%	2.6 / 120.5 (2%)	-10.1 / 16.64 (-61%)	-3.5 / 12.27 (-28%)	4 / 6 (40%)	-1.10
2017	27.98	10.1	36%	6.8 / 19.33 (35%)	3.0 / 6.15 (49%)	0.3 / 2.5 (10%)	3 / 3 (50%)	1.68

Josh Baxter: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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Josh Baxter: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	156.34	-6.6	-4%	2.8 / 119.78 (2%)	-6.6 / 22.29 (-30%)	-2.7 / 14.27 (-19%)
Bellator	21.05	5.6	27%	6.6 / 20.05 (33%)	-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)	-0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)

Josh Baxter: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	17 (43%)	17	100 %	73.53	27.64	1.63	38%
Slight Favorites	16 (40%)	7	44 %	48.60	-3.97	-0.25	-8%
Slight Underdogs	6 (15%)	1	17 %	17.20	-13.75	-2.29	-80%
Big Underdogs	1 (3%)	0	0 %	0.50	-0.50	-0.50	-100%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	8 (20%)	5	63 %	31.05	2.59	0.32	8%
Co-Main Event	4 (10%)	2	50 %	24.40	-7.30	-1.82	-30%
Position 3-5	13 (33%)	8	62 %	41.00	4.23	0.33	10%
6+ (Undercard)	15 (38%)	10	67 %	43.38	9.90	0.66	23%

Josh Baxter: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	4 (10%)	3	75 %	17.90	4.64	1.16	26%
Light Heavy	3 (8%)	1	33 %	7.70	1.00	0.33	13%
Middleweight	2 (5%)	2	100 %	11.05	7.00	3.50	63%
Welterweight	8 (20%)	6	75 %	31.40	-3.50	-0.44	-11%
Lightweight	6 (15%)	3	50 %	16.60	-0.80	-0.13	-5%
Featherweight	5 (13%)	2	40 %	12.80	-0.95	-0.19	-7%
Bantamweight	6 (15%)	4	67 %	19.63	-1.85	-0.31	-9%
Flyweight	1 (3%)		0 %	2.20	-2.20	-2.20	-100%

Women's Fights	5 (13%)	4	80 %	20.55	6.08	1.22	30%
Featherweight	1 (3%)	1	100 %	6.90	3.00	3.00	43%
Bantamweight	1 (3%)	1	100 %	3.85	2.48	2.48	65%
Flyweight	2 (5%)	1	50 %	5.80	-0.40	-0.20	-7%
Strawweight	1 (3%)	1	100 %	4.00	1.00	1.00	25%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	25 (96%)	21	84 %
Slight Favorites	1 (4%)	1	100 %
Slight Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %
Big Underdogs	0 (0%)	0	nan %
	26	22	85 %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	21 (66%)	14	67 %
50-65%	4 (13%)	2	50 %
35-50%	5 (16%)	0	0 %
<35% chance	2 (6%)	0	0 %
	32	16	50 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	5 (16%)	2	40 %	1.38	1.50	1.30	-2.3 (-46%)
Goes to Decision	2 (6%)	1	50 %	1.47	1.47	1.47	-0.5 (-27%)
Does not go to Decision	5 (16%)	2	40 %	1.32	1.50	1.12	-2.2 (-44%)
Fight Starts Round X	9 (28%)	9	100 %	1.16	1.29	1.11	1.4 (16%)
X Wins by KO	2 (6%)	0	0 %	1.61	1.61	1.61	-2.0 (-100%)
X Wins by Decision	3 (9%)	1	33 %	2.67	4.00	1.91	-1.1 (-36%)
X Wins Inside Distance	6 (19%)	1	17 %	2.29	4.20	1.83	-4.2 (-69%)
	32	16	50 %	1.49			-10.9 (-34%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Josh Baxter's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
2nd Dec	TUF 26 Finale	3.13	-0.3	-8%		$10.00	$1,000.00	$997.50
2nd Dec	UFC 218	4	2.0	50%		$9.97	$997.50	$1,017.45
9th Dec	Bellator 190	0.5	-0.5	-100%		$10.17	$1,017.45	$1,012.36
9th Dec	UFC Fight Night 123	4.35	-1.2	-28%		$10.12	$1,012.36	$1,000.21
15th Dec	Bellator 191	5.5	1.0	18%		$10.00	$1,000.21	$1,010.22
16th Dec	UFC on Fox 26 Lawler vs. dos Anjos	10.5	9.0	86%		$10.10	$1,010.22	$1,101.16
14th Jan	UFC Fight Night 124	10.31	-2.1	-21%		$11.01	$1,101.16	$1,077.51
20th Jan	UFC 220	19.8	-2.4	-12%		$10.78	$1,077.51	$1,051.65
20th Jan	Bellator 192	5.05	1.5	30%		$10.52	$1,051.65	$1,067.42
27th Jan	UFC on Fox 27	2	2.2	110%		$10.67	$1,067.42	$1,091.01
24th Feb	UFC on Fox 28	8.15	-6.1	-74%		$10.91	$1,091.01	$1,025.00
3rd Mar	UFC 222	20.4	-3.7	-18%		$10.25	$1,025.00	$987.42
19th May	UFC Fight Night 129	12.55	-9.6	-76%		$9.87	$987.42	$892.63
9th Jun	UFC 225	36.55	-2.7	-7%		$8.93	$892.63	$868.76
25th Aug	UFC Fight Night 135	24.6	8.2	33%		$8.69	$868.76	$939.99
12th Oct	Bellator 207	10	3.6	36%		$9.40	$939.99	$974.18

ROI % from starting bank balance: -2.58% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Josh Baxter: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Oct '18	Ryan Bader	Matt Mitrione	1.36	10	U Decision (3 rounds)
2.	Aug '18	Cory Sandhagen	Yuri Alcantara	1.50	2	TKO, R2 (1:1)
3.	Aug '18	Bryan Barberena	Jake Ellenberger	1.25	8	TKO, R1 (2:14)
4.	Aug '18	Joanne Wood	Kalindra Faria	1.59	3.4	Sub, R1 (4:59)
5.	Aug '18	Michael Johnson	Andre Fili	1.91	4.4	Split Decision (3 rounds)
6.	Aug '18	Drew Dober	Jon Tuck	1.50	4	U Decision (3 rounds)
7.	Jun '18	Tai Tuivasa	Andrei Arlovski	1.40	2.5	U Decision (3 rounds)
8.	Jun '18	Holly Holm	Megan Anderson	1.43	6.9	U Decision (3 rounds)
9.	Jun '18	Curtis Blaydes	Alistair Overeem	1.59	3.4	TKO, R3 (2:56)
10.	Jun '18	Mike Jackson	Phil Brooks	1.48	4.2	U Decision (3 rounds)
11.	Jun '18	Robert Whittaker	Yoel Romero	1.42	4.8	Split Decision (5 rounds)
12.	May '18	Vicente Luque	Chad Laprise	1.51	1.95	TKO, R1 (4:16)
13.	Mar '18	Ketlen Vieira	Cat Zingano	1.65	3.85	Split Decision (3 rounds)
14.	Mar '18	John Dodson	Pedro Munhoz	1.59	3.4	Split Decision (3 rounds)
15.	Mar '18	Mackenzie Dern	Ashley Yoder	1.25	4	Split Decision (3 rounds)
16.	Jan '18	Michael Chandler	Goiti Yamauchi	1.43	2.3	U Decision (3 rounds)
17.	Jan '18	Rory MacDonald	Douglas Lima	1.44	2.25	U Decision (5 rounds)
18.	Jan '18	Islam Makhachev	Gleison Tibau	1.44	4.5	TKO, R1 (0:57)
19.	Jan '18	Daniel Cormier	Volkan Oezdemir	1.30	6.7	TKO, R2 (2:0)
20.	Jan '18	Jeremy Stephens	Doo Ho Choi	2.30	1.5	TKO, R2 (2:36)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Aug '18	James Vick	Justin Gaethje	1.71	2.8	TKO, R1 (1:27)	No
2.	Jun '18	Clay Guida	Charles Oliveira	2.30	1	Sub, R1 (2:18)	No
3.	Jun '18	Rafael dos Anjos	Colby Covington	2.00	10	U Decision (5 rounds)	No
4.	May '18	Zak Cummings	Michel Prazeres	1.65	1.5	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
5.	May '18	Jared Cannonier	Dominick Reyes	2.90	0.5	TKO, R1 (2:55)	No
6.	May '18	Brandon Moreno	Alexandre Pantoja	2.05	2.2	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
7.	Mar '18	Andre Soukhamthath	Sean O'Malley	1.69	4.35	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
8.	Mar '18	Frankie Edgar	Brian Ortega	1.61	3.3	TKO, R1 (4:44)	No
9.	Jan '18	Francimar Barroso	Gian Villante	2.50	0.5	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
10.	Jan '18	Shane Burgos	Calvin Kattar	1.71	1.4	TKO, R3 (0:32)	No
11.	Jan '18	Thomas Almeida	Rob Font	1.80	2.5	TKO, R2 (2:26)	No
12.	Jan '18	Francis Ngannou	Stipe Miocic	1.61	2	U Decision (5 rounds)	No
13.	Jan '18	Paige VanZant	Jessica-Rose Clark	1.83	2.4	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
14.	Jan '18	Alex White	James Krause	2.40	2	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
15.	Dec '17	Cub Swanson	Brian Ortega	1.91	2.2	Sub, R2 (3:22)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Josh Baxter: Progress Chart

Chart

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