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MMA Handicapper Directory
Total MMA Handicappers: 2021
Profitable MMA Handicappers: 819

 
 
 
   
 

MMA Handicapper Stats: Positive Expectation

Positive Expectation (skylightfoot)


Mixed Martial Arts Management - Positive Expectation

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MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats

Straight Fight Picks

Props

Parlays

Right 54 (39%) Right 30 (40%) Right 24 (39%) Right 0 (nan%)
Wrong 83 (61%) Wrong 45 (60%) Wrong 38 (61%) Wrong 0 (nan%)
Avg Odds 2.73 Avg Odds 2.31 Avg Odds 3.50 Avg Odds nan
Units Bet 476.0 Units Bet 305.5 Units Bet 170.5 Units Bet 0.0
Avg Bet 3.47 Avg Bet 4.07 Avg Bet 2.75 Avg Bet nan
Units Profit 76.08 Units Profit -3.50 Units Profit 79.58 Units Profit 0.00
ROI % 16% ROI % -1% ROI % 47% ROI % nan%
View Handicapper's Profile

Positive Expectation: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date Event Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
8th Jun '19 UFC 238 17 -7.7 -45% -3.0 / 3 (-100%) -4.7 / 14 (-33%)
6th Oct '18 UFC 229 16 -8.2 -51% -7.2 / 15 (-48%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
8th Sep '18 UFC 228 1 -1.0 -100% -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
7th Apr '18 UFC 223 8 5.5 69% -5.0 / 5 (-100%) 10.5 / 3 (350%)
10th Feb '18 UFC 221 12 -1.1 -10% -1.1 / 12 (-10%)
4th Feb '18 UFC Fight Night 125 3 2.2 73% 2.2 / 3 (73%)
20th Jan '18 UFC 220 3 5.2 172% 5.2 / 3 (172%)
31st Dec '17 UFC 219 3 -3.0 -100% -3.0 / 3 (-100%)
16th Dec '17 UFC on Fox 26 Lawler vs. dos Anjos 44 31.5 72% 13.3 / 16 (83%) 18.2 / 28 (65%)
2nd Dec '17 UFC 218 20 -20.0 -100% -15.0 / 15 (-100%) -5.0 / 5 (-100%)
18th Nov '17 UFC Fight Night 121 Sydney 14 7.7 55% 3.9 / 5 (77%) 3.9 / 9 (43%)
11th Nov '17 UFC Fight Night 120 Virginia 5 5.0 100% 5.0 / 5 (100%)
4th Nov '17 UFC 217 23.5 11.7 50% 10.2 / 16 (64%) 1.5 / 7.5 (21%)
21st Oct '17 UFC Fight Night 118 Gdansk 11.5 -3.0 -26% -2.0 / 10.5 (-19%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
7th Oct '17 UFC 216 10 4.0 40% 3.5 / 5 (70%) 0.6 / 5 (11%)
22nd Sep '17 UFC Fight Night 117 St. Preux vs. Shogun 2 16 6.7 42% -2.9 / 8 (-36%) 9.6 / 8 (120%)
16th Sep '17 UFC Fight Night 116 Rockhold vs. Branch 5 -5.0 -100% -5.0 / 5 (-100%)
9th Sep '17 UFC 215 7 -0.2 -4% 0.8 / 6 (13%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
2nd Sep '17 UFC Fight Night Struve vs. Volkov 4.5 -4.5 -100% -3.5 / 3.5 (-100%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
5th Aug '17 UFC Fight Night 114 Pettis vs. Moreno 4 -4.0 -100% -4.0 / 4 (-100%)
29th Jul '17 UFC 214 14.5 5.0 34% -6.0 / 6 (-100%) 11.0 / 8.5 (129%)
8th Jul '17 UFC 213 15 17.5 117% 17.5 / 15 (117%)
7th Jul '17 TUF Season 25 Finale 2 -2.0 -100% -2.0 / 2 (-100%)
25th Jun '17 UFC Fight Night 112 1 -1.0 -100% -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
24th Jun '17 Bellator 180 Sonnen vs. Silva 5 4.8 96% 2.4 / 3 (80%) 2.4 / 2 (120%)
10th Jun '17 UFC Fight Night 110 Hunt vs. Lewis 23 13.0 57% 4.0 / 18 (22%) 9.0 / 5 (180%)
3rd Jun '17 UFC 212 Aldo vs Holloway 23 -15.2 -66% -7.7 / 15.5 (-50%) -7.5 / 7.5 (-100%)
28th May '17 UFC Fight Night 109 Gustafsson Vs Teixeira 20 7.1 36% 13.1 / 14 (94%) -6.0 / 6 (-100%)
13th May '17 UFC 211 - Miocic vs. Dos Santos 15 5.6 37% 5.6 / 15 (37%)
15th Apr '17 UFC on Fox 24 - Johnson vs Reis 17 2.9 17% -0.6 / 15 (-4%) 3.5 / 2 (175%)
8th Apr '17 UFC 210 - Cormier vs. Johnson 2 11 -11.0 -100% -10.0 / 10 (-100%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
4th Mar '17 UFC 209 18 14.1 79% 10.9 / 10 (109%) 3.3 / 8 (41%)
19th Feb '17 UFC Fight Night 105 Lewis vs. Browne 9 1.4 16% -3.0 / 3 (-100%) 4.4 / 6 (73%)
11th Feb '17 UFC 208 1 8.0 800% 8.0 / 1 (800%)
15th Jan '17 UFC Fight Night 103 Rodriguez vs. Penn 11 -11.0 -100% -5.0 / 5 (-100%) -6.0 / 6 (-100%)
10th Dec '16 UFC 206 12 4.0 33% 1.5 / 10 (15%) 2.5 / 2 (125%)
9th Dec '16 UFC Fight Night 102 Albany 13 3.5 27% -6.0 / 6 (-100%) 9.5 / 7 (136%)
3rd Dec '16 UFC - The Ultimate Fighter 24 Finale 5 -5.0 -100% -5.0 / 5 (-100%)
26th Nov '16 UFC Fight Night 101 27 15.7 58% -1.8 / 17 (-11%) 17.5 / 10 (175%)
19th Nov '16 UFC Fight Night 100 Bader vs. Nogueira 2 1 1.8 179% 1.8 / 1 (179%)
19th Nov '16 UFC Fight Night 99 - Mousasi vs. Hall 5 -5.0 -100% -3.0 / 3 (-100%) -2.0 / 2 (-100%)


Winning Events: 23 (56%)
Losing Events: 18 (44%)

Average Staked Per Event: 11.61 units
Most Staked On One Event: 44.00 units
Best Event: 31.53 units
Worst Event: -20.00 units
Average Event: 1.86 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 3, Units: 31.53
Max Losing Streak: Events: 4, Units: -20.00

Positive Expectation: Year on Year Profit

Year Bet Won ROI Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%)
Events
Won / Lost (%)
Profit
Per Event
2019 17 -7.7 -45% -3.0 / 3 (-100%) -4.7 / 14 (-33%) / 1 (0%) -7.65
2018 43 2.5 6% -13.4 / 32 (-42%) 15.9 / 11 (144%) 3 / 3 (50%) 0.42
2017 353 66.3 19% 25.4 / 228.5 (11%) 40.9 / 124.5 (33%) 16 / 12 (57%) 2.37
2016 63 14.9 24% -12.5 / 42 (-30%) 27.5 / 21 (131%) 4 / 2 (67%) 2.49

Positive Expectation: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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Positive Expectation: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
UFC 471 71.3 15% -5.9 / 302.5 (-2%) 77.2 / 168.5 (46%)
Bellator 5 4.8 96% 2.4 / 3 (80%) 2.4 / 2 (120%)

Positive Expectation: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 1 (1%) 0 0 % 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 -100%
Slight Favorites 24 (32%) 12 50 % 104.00 -14.63 -0.61 -14%
Slight Underdogs 33 (44%) 15 45 % 151.00 28.02 0.85 19%
Big Underdogs 17 (23%) 3 18 % 49.50 -15.89 -0.93 -32%



Betting Stats By Card Position

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Main Event 14 (19%) 5 36 % 75.00 2.00 0.14 3%
Co-Main Event 12 (16%) 3 25 % 44.00 -21.80 -1.82 -50%
Position 3-5 18 (24%) 11 61 % 70.00 49.91 2.77 71%
6+ (Undercard) 30 (40%) 11 37 % 110.50 -27.61 -0.92 -25%

Positive Expectation: Profit by Weight Class

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Heavyweight 8 (11%) 5 63 % 36.00 18.80 2.35 52%
Light Heavy 8 (11%) 4 50 % 34.00 -1.61 -0.20 -5%
Middleweight 10 (13%) 6 60 % 47.50 40.17 4.02 85%
Welterweight 13 (17%) 5 38 % 51.00 -3.68 -0.28 -7%
Lightweight 14 (19%) 4 29 % 48.00 -15.99 -1.14 -33%
Featherweight 4 (5%) 1 25 % 15.00 -6.45 -1.61 -43%
Bantamweight 6 (8%) 3 50 % 23.00 -0.04 -0.01 -0%
Flyweight 2 (3%) 1 50 % 6.00 1.80 0.90 30%
               
Women's Fights 10 (13%) 1 10 % 45.00 -36.50 -3.65 -81%
Bantamweight 3 (4%) 0 % 12.00 -12.00 -4.00 -100%
Strawweight 7 (9%) 1 14 % 33.00 -24.50 -3.50 -74%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
Big Favorites 0 (nan%) 0 nan %
Slight Favorites 0 (nan%) 0 nan %
Slight Underdogs 0 (nan%) 0 nan %
Big Underdogs 0 (nan%) 0 nan %
0 0 nan %

 

Props bets and props within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
>65% chance 1 (2%) 1 100 %
50-65% 10 (16%) 6 60 %
35-50% 14 (23%) 10 71 %
<35% chance 37 (60%) 7 19 %
62 24 39 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type Picks Correct % Correct Avg
Odds
Longest
Odds
Shortest
Odds
1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 13 (21%) 9 69 % 2.00 3.65Pick was correct 1.63Pick was incorrect 6.7 (52%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 3 (5%) 3 100 % 2.14 2.72Pick was correct 1.73Pick was correct 3.6 (122%)
Goes to Decision 3 (5%) 2 67 % 2.48 4.33Pick was correct 1.87Pick was correct 3.2 (107%)
Does not go to Decision 2 (3%) 2 100 % 2.77 2.80Pick was correct 2.75Pick was correct 3.5 (177%)
Fight Starts Round X 1 (2%) 1 100 % 2.85 2.85Pick was correct 2.85Pick was incorrect 1.8 (185%)
X Wins by KO 4 (6%) 2 50 % 4.85 7.00Pick was incorrect 3.60Pick was incorrect 6.0 (150%)
X Wins by Sub 9 (15%) 1 11 % 6.19 26.00Pick was incorrect 2.75Pick was incorrect -4.5 (-50%)
X Wins by Decision 12 (19%) 1 8 % 5.68 10.00Pick was incorrect 3.25Pick was incorrect -3.0 (-25%)
X Wins Inside Distance 2 (3%) 1 50 % 2.64 2.68Pick was incorrect 2.60Pick was correct 0.6 (30%)
X Does NOT Win Inside Distance 1 (2%) 0 0 % 1.83 1.83Pick was incorrect 1.83Pick was incorrect -1.0 (-100%)
X Wins in Round X 6 (10%) 0 0 % 15.97 34.00Pick was incorrect 7.65Pick was incorrect -6.0 (-100%)
Others 6 (10%) 2 33 % 4.08 21.00Pick was incorrect 1.53Pick was correct -1.5 (-24%)
62 24 39 % 3.50     9.6 (15%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Positive Expectation's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date Event Bet Won ROI Fee 1 unit = Start End
19th Nov UFC Fight Night 99 - Mousasi vs. Hall 5 -5.0 -100% $20 $10.00 $1,000.00 $930.00
19th Nov UFC Fight Night 100 Bader vs. Nogueira 2 1 1.8 179% $9.30 $930.00 $946.65
26th Nov UFC Fight Night 101 27 15.7 58% $20 $9.47 $946.65 $1,074.89
3rd Dec UFC - The Ultimate Fighter 24 Finale 5 -5.0 -100% $10.75 $1,074.89 $1,021.15
9th Dec UFC Fight Night 102 Albany 13 3.5 27% $10.21 $1,021.15 $1,056.89
10th Dec UFC 206 12 4.0 33% $10.57 $1,056.89 $1,099.16
15th Jan UFC Fight Night 103 Rodriguez vs. Penn 11 -11.0 -100% $10.99 $1,099.16 $978.25
11th Feb UFC 208 1 8.0 800% $9.78 $978.25 $1,056.52
19th Feb UFC Fight Night 105 Lewis vs. Browne 9 1.4 16% $10.57 $1,056.52 $1,071.31
4th Mar UFC 209 18 14.1 79% $10.71 $1,071.31 $1,222.90
8th Apr UFC 210 - Cormier vs. Johnson 2 11 -11.0 -100% $12.23 $1,222.90 $1,088.38
15th Apr UFC on Fox 24 - Johnson vs Reis 17 2.9 17% $10.88 $1,088.38 $1,119.40
13th May UFC 211 - Miocic vs. Dos Santos 15 5.6 37% $11.19 $1,119.40 $1,182.08
28th May UFC Fight Night 109 Gustafsson Vs Teixeira 20 7.1 36% $11.82 $1,182.08 $1,266.13
3rd Jun UFC 212 Aldo vs Holloway 23 -15.2 -66% $12.66 $1,266.13 $1,073.68
10th Jun UFC Fight Night 110 Hunt vs. Lewis 23 13.0 57% $20 $10.74 $1,073.68 $1,193.26
24th Jun Bellator 180 Sonnen vs. Silva 5 4.8 96% $11.93 $1,193.26 $1,250.53
25th Jun UFC Fight Night 112 1 -1.0 -100% $12.51 $1,250.53 $1,238.03
7th Jul TUF Season 25 Finale 2 -2.0 -100% $12.38 $1,238.03 $1,213.26
8th Jul UFC 213 15 17.5 117% $12.13 $1,213.26 $1,425.59
29th Jul UFC 214 14.5 5.0 34% $14.26 $1,425.59 $1,496.87
5th Aug UFC Fight Night 114 Pettis vs. Moreno 4 -4.0 -100% $14.97 $1,496.87 $1,436.99
2nd Sep UFC Fight Night Struve vs. Volkov 4.5 -4.5 -100% $14.37 $1,436.99 $1,372.33
9th Sep UFC 215 7 -0.2 -4% $13.72 $1,372.33 $1,368.90
16th Sep UFC Fight Night 116 Rockhold vs. Branch 5 -5.0 -100% $13.69 $1,368.90 $1,300.45
22nd Sep UFC Fight Night 117 St. Preux vs. Shogun 2 16 6.7 42% $13.00 $1,300.45 $1,387.58
7th Oct UFC 216 10 4.0 40% $13.88 $1,387.58 $1,443.78
21st Oct UFC Fight Night 118 Gdansk 11.5 -3.0 -26% $14.44 $1,443.78 $1,401.18
4th Nov UFC 217 23.5 11.7 50% $14.01 $1,401.18 $1,565.82
11th Nov UFC Fight Night 120 Virginia 5 5.0 100% $15.66 $1,565.82 $1,644.11
18th Nov UFC Fight Night 121 Sydney 14 7.7 55% $16.44 $1,644.11 $1,771.37
2nd Dec UFC 218 20 -20.0 -100% $17.71 $1,771.37 $1,417.09
16th Dec UFC on Fox 26 Lawler vs. dos Anjos 44 31.5 72% $14.17 $1,417.09 $1,863.90
31st Dec UFC 219 3 -3.0 -100% $18.64 $1,863.90 $1,807.99
20th Jan UFC 220 3 5.2 172% $18.08 $1,807.99 $1,901.28
4th Feb UFC Fight Night 125 3 2.2 73% $19.01 $1,901.28 $1,942.92
10th Feb UFC 221 12 -1.1 -10% $19.43 $1,942.92 $1,920.57
7th Apr UFC 223 8 5.5 69% $19.21 $1,920.57 $2,026.21
8th Sep UFC 228 1 -1.0 -100% $20.26 $2,026.21 $2,005.94
6th Oct UFC 229 16 -8.2 -51% $20.06 $2,005.94 $1,841.46
8th Jun UFC 238 17 -7.7 -45% $18.41 $1,841.46 $1,700.58


ROI % from starting bank balance: 70.06% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Positive Expectation: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result    
1. Oct '18 Jussier Formiga Sergio Pettis 2.60 3 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
2. Feb '18 Ross Pearson Mizuto Hirota 1.77 3 U Decision (3 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
3. Feb '18 Jake Matthews Li Jingliang 2.77 2 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
4. Dec '17 Jordan Mein Erick Silva 1.75 5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
5. Dec '17 Jan Blachowicz Jared Cannonier 2.65 5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
6. Dec '17 Glover Teixeira Misha Cirkunov 2.43 3 TKO, R1 (2:45) MMA Bookmaker
7. Nov '17 Frank Camacho Damien Brown 1.77 5 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
8. Nov '17 Paulo Costa Johny Hendricks 2.62 10 TKO, R2 (1:23) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
9. Oct '17 Andre Fili Artem Lobov 1.71 5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
10. Oct '17 Poliana Botelho Pearl Gonzalez 1.70 5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
11. Nov '17 Dustin Poirier Anthony Pettis 2.00 5 TKO, R3 (2:8) MMA Bookmaker
12. Sep '17 Gokhan Saki Luis Henrique da Silva 1.70 3 TKO, R1 (4:45) MMA Bookmaker
13. Sep '17 Ilir Latifi Tyson Pedro 2.25 3 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
14. Jun '17 Matt Mitrione Fedor Emelianenko 1.80 3 TKO, R1 (1:14) MMA Bookmaker
15. Jul '17 Alistair Overeem Fabricio Werdum 1.80 5 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
16. Jul '17 Robert Whittaker Yoel Romero 2.35 10 U Decision (5 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
17. Jun '17 Raphael Assuncao Marlon Moraes 2.60 3 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
18. May '17 Joaquim Silva Reza Madadi 1.57 5 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
19. May '17 Trevor Smith Chris Camozzi 3.11 3 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
20. May '17 Omari Akhmedov Abdul Razak Alhassan 3.31 3 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker



Last 20 Losses

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result Hedge?    
1. Jun '19 Jimmie Rivera Petr Yan 3.90 3 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
2. Oct '18 Lina Lansberg Yana Kunitskaya 3.04 3 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
3. Oct '18 Conor McGregor Khabib Nurmagomedov 2.64 3 Sub, R4 (3:2) No MMA Bookmaker
4. Oct '18 Tonya Evinger Aspen Ladd 2.60 6 TKO, R1 (3:26) No MMA Bookmaker
5. Apr '18 Joanna Jedrzejczyk Rose Namajunas 2.00 5 U Decision (5 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
6. Feb '18 Mark Hunt Curtis Blaydes 2.45 2 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
7. Feb '18 Jeremy Kennedy Alex Volkanovski 2.65 2 TKO, R2 (4:57) No MMA Bookmaker
8. Feb '18 Ben Nguyen Jussier Formiga 2.10 3 Sub, R3 (1:41) No MMA Bookmaker
9. Dec '17 Robbie Lawler Rafael dos Anjos 2.10 3 U Decision (5 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
10. Dec '17 Cortney Casey Felice Herrig 2.20 5 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
11. Dec '17 Charles Oliveira Paul Felder 2.15 5 TKO, R2 (4:6) No MMA Bookmaker
12. Dec '17 Alistair Overeem Francis Ngannou 3.40 5 TKO, R1 (1:42) No MMA Bookmaker
13. Oct '17 Nasrat Haqparast Marcin Held 4.75 0.5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
14. Oct '17 Donald Cerrone Darren Till 1.68 5 TKO, R1 (4:20) No MMA Bookmaker
15. Sep '17 Hyun Gyu Lim Daichi Abe 1.79 5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
16. Sep '17 Tony Martin Olivier Aubin-Mercier 2.00 5 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
17. Sep '17 Valentina Shevchenko Amanda Nunes 1.83 3 Split Decision (5 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
18. Sep '17 Felipe Silva Mairbek Taisumov 5.20 0.5 TKO, R1 (1:24) No MMA Bookmaker
19. Sep '17 Bryan Barberena Leon Edwards 3.34 3 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
20. Nov '17 Michael Bisping Georges St-Pierre 2.30 6 Sub, R3 (4:23) No MMA Bookmaker

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Positive Expectation: Progress Chart

Chart

 

 
 
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