MMA Handicapper Directory
Total MMA Handicappers: 6363
Profitable MMA Handicappers: 2349

MMA Handicapper Stats: Positive Expectation

Positive Expectation (skylightfoot)

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	56 (39%)	Right	31 (40%)	Right	25 (38%)	Right	0 (nan%)
Wrong	87 (61%)	Wrong	47 (60%)	Wrong	40 (62%)	Wrong	0 (nan%)
Avg Odds	2.71	Avg Odds	2.31	Avg Odds	3.44	Avg Odds	nan
Units Bet	496.0	Units Bet	321.5	Units Bet	174.5	Units Bet	0.0
Avg Bet	3.47	Avg Bet	4.12	Avg Bet	2.68	Avg Bet	nan
Units Profit	67.18	Units Profit	-14.00	Units Profit	81.18	Units Profit	0.00
ROI %	14%	ROI %	-4%	ROI %	47%	ROI %	nan%

Positive Expectation: Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
12th Nov '22	UFC 281	9	2.1	23%	0.5 / 5 (10%)	1.6 / 4 (40%)
22nd Feb '20	UFC Fight Night 168	11	-11.0	-100%	-11.0 / 11 (-100%)
8th Jun '19	UFC 238	17	-7.7	-45%	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)	-4.7 / 14 (-33%)
6th Oct '18	UFC 229	16	-8.2	-51%	-7.2 / 15 (-48%)	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
8th Sep '18	UFC 228	1	-1.0	-100%		-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
7th Apr '18	UFC 223	8	5.5	69%	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)	10.5 / 3 (350%)
10th Feb '18	UFC 221	12	-1.1	-10%	-1.1 / 12 (-10%)
4th Feb '18	UFC Fight Night 125	3	2.2	73%		2.2 / 3 (73%)
20th Jan '18	UFC 220	3	5.2	172%		5.2 / 3 (172%)
31st Dec '17	UFC 219	3	-3.0	-100%		-3.0 / 3 (-100%)
16th Dec '17	UFC on Fox 26 Lawler vs. dos Anjos	44	31.5	72%	13.3 / 16 (83%)	18.2 / 28 (65%)
2nd Dec '17	UFC 218	20	-20.0	-100%	-15.0 / 15 (-100%)	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
18th Nov '17	UFC Fight Night 121 Sydney	14	7.7	55%	3.9 / 5 (77%)	3.9 / 9 (43%)
11th Nov '17	UFC Fight Night 120 Virginia	5	5.0	100%	5.0 / 5 (100%)
4th Nov '17	UFC 217	23.5	11.7	50%	10.2 / 16 (64%)	1.5 / 7.5 (21%)
21st Oct '17	UFC Fight Night 118 Gdansk	11.5	-3.0	-26%	-2.0 / 10.5 (-19%)	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
7th Oct '17	UFC 216	10	4.0	40%	3.5 / 5 (70%)	0.6 / 5 (11%)
22nd Sep '17	UFC Fight Night 117 St. Preux vs. Shogun 2	16	6.7	42%	-2.9 / 8 (-36%)	9.6 / 8 (120%)
16th Sep '17	UFC Fight Night 116 Rockhold vs. Branch	5	-5.0	-100%	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
9th Sep '17	UFC 215	7	-0.2	-4%	0.8 / 6 (13%)	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
2nd Sep '17	UFC Fight Night Struve vs. Volkov	4.5	-4.5	-100%	-3.5 / 3.5 (-100%)	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
5th Aug '17	UFC Fight Night 114 Pettis vs. Moreno	4	-4.0	-100%	-4.0 / 4 (-100%)
29th Jul '17	UFC 214	14.5	5.0	34%	-6.0 / 6 (-100%)	11.0 / 8.5 (129%)
8th Jul '17	UFC 213	15	17.5	117%	17.5 / 15 (117%)
7th Jul '17	TUF Season 25 Finale	2	-2.0	-100%		-2.0 / 2 (-100%)
25th Jun '17	UFC Fight Night 112	1	-1.0	-100%		-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
24th Jun '17	Bellator 180 Sonnen vs. Silva	5	4.8	96%	2.4 / 3 (80%)	2.4 / 2 (120%)
10th Jun '17	UFC Fight Night 110 Hunt vs. Lewis	23	13.0	57%	4.0 / 18 (22%)	9.0 / 5 (180%)
3rd Jun '17	UFC 212 Aldo vs Holloway	23	-15.2	-66%	-7.7 / 15.5 (-50%)	-7.5 / 7.5 (-100%)
28th May '17	UFC Fight Night 109 Gustafsson Vs Teixeira	20	7.1	36%	13.1 / 14 (94%)	-6.0 / 6 (-100%)
13th May '17	UFC 211 - Miocic vs. Dos Santos	15	5.6	37%	5.6 / 15 (37%)
15th Apr '17	UFC on Fox 24 - Johnson vs Reis	17	2.9	17%	-0.6 / 15 (-4%)	3.5 / 2 (175%)
8th Apr '17	UFC 210 - Cormier vs. Johnson 2	11	-11.0	-100%	-10.0 / 10 (-100%)	-1.0 / 1 (-100%)
4th Mar '17	UFC 209	18	14.1	79%	10.9 / 10 (109%)	3.3 / 8 (41%)
19th Feb '17	UFC Fight Night 105 Lewis vs. Browne	9	1.4	16%	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)	4.4 / 6 (73%)
11th Feb '17	UFC 208	1	8.0	800%		8.0 / 1 (800%)
15th Jan '17	UFC Fight Night 103 Rodriguez vs. Penn	11	-11.0	-100%	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)	-6.0 / 6 (-100%)
10th Dec '16	UFC 206	12	4.0	33%	1.5 / 10 (15%)	2.5 / 2 (125%)
9th Dec '16	UFC Fight Night 102 Albany	13	3.5	27%	-6.0 / 6 (-100%)	9.5 / 7 (136%)
3rd Dec '16	UFC - The Ultimate Fighter 24 Finale	5	-5.0	-100%	-5.0 / 5 (-100%)
26th Nov '16	UFC Fight Night 101	27	15.7	58%	-1.8 / 17 (-11%)	17.5 / 10 (175%)
19th Nov '16	UFC Fight Night 100 Bader vs. Nogueira 2	1	1.8	179%	1.8 / 1 (179%)
19th Nov '16	UFC Fight Night 99 - Mousasi vs. Hall	5	-5.0	-100%	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)	-2.0 / 2 (-100%)

Winning Events: 24 (56%)
Losing Events: 19 (44%)

Average Staked Per Event: 11.53 units
Most Staked On One Event: 44.00 units
Best Event: 31.53 units
Worst Event: -20.00 units
Average Event: 1.56 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 3, Units: 31.53
Max Losing Streak: Events: 4, Units: -27.85

Positive Expectation: Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2022	9	2.1	23%	0.5 / 5 (10%)			1 / (100%)	2.10
2020	11	-11.0	-100%	-11.0 / 11 (-100%)			/ 1 (0%)	-11.00
2019	17	-7.7	-45%	-3.0 / 3 (-100%)	-4.7 / 14 (-33%)		/ 1 (0%)	-7.65
2018	43	2.5	6%	-13.4 / 32 (-42%)	15.9 / 11 (144%)		3 / 3 (50%)	0.42
2017	353	66.3	19%	25.4 / 228.5 (11%)	40.9 / 124.5 (33%)		16 / 12 (57%)	2.37
2016	63	14.9	24%	-12.5 / 42 (-30%)	27.5 / 21 (131%)		4 / 2 (67%)	2.49

Positive Expectation: Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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Positive Expectation: Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	491	62.4	13%	-16.4 / 318.5 (-5%)	78.8 / 172.5 (46%)
Bellator	5	4.8	96%	2.4 / 3 (80%)	2.4 / 2 (120%)

Positive Expectation: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	1 (1%)	0	0 %	1.00	-1.00	-1.00	-100%
Slight Favorites	25 (32%)	12	48 %	115.00	-25.63	-1.03	-22%
Slight Underdogs	34 (44%)	16	47 %	153.00	31.52	0.93	21%
Big Underdogs	18 (23%)	3	17 %	52.50	-18.89	-1.05	-36%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	15 (19%)	6	40 %	77.00	5.50	0.37	7%
Co-Main Event	12 (15%)	3	25 %	44.00	-21.80	-1.82	-50%
Position 3-5	20 (26%)	11	55 %	84.00	35.91	1.80	43%
6+ (Undercard)	30 (38%)	11	37 %	110.50	-27.61	-0.92	-25%

Positive Expectation: Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	8 (10%)	5	63 %	36.00	18.80	2.35	52%
Light Heavy	8 (10%)	4	50 %	34.00	-1.61	-0.20	-5%
Middleweight	11 (14%)	7	64 %	49.50	43.67	3.97	88%
Welterweight	13 (17%)	5	38 %	51.00	-3.68	-0.28	-7%
Lightweight	16 (21%)	4	25 %	62.00	-29.99	-1.87	-48%
Featherweight	4 (5%)	1	25 %	15.00	-6.45	-1.61	-43%
Bantamweight	6 (8%)	3	50 %	23.00	-0.04	-0.01	-0%
Flyweight	2 (3%)	1	50 %	6.00	1.80	0.90	30%

Women's Fights	10 (13%)	1	10 %	45.00	-36.50	-3.65	-81%
Bantamweight	3 (4%)		0 %	12.00	-12.00	-4.00	-100%
Strawweight	7 (9%)	1	14 %	33.00	-24.50	-3.50	-74%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	0 (nan%)	0	nan %
Slight Favorites	0 (nan%)	0	nan %
Slight Underdogs	0 (nan%)	0	nan %
Big Underdogs	0 (nan%)	0	nan %
	0	0	nan %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	1 (2%)	1	100 %
50-65%	11 (17%)	6	55 %
35-50%	15 (23%)	11	73 %
<35% chance	38 (58%)	7	18 %
	65	25	38 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	13 (20%)	9	69 %	2.00	3.65	1.63	6.7 (52%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	3 (5%)	3	100 %	2.14	2.72	1.73	3.6 (122%)
Goes to Decision	5 (8%)	2	40 %	2.44	4.33	1.87	1.2 (24%)
Does not go to Decision	2 (3%)	2	100 %	2.77	2.80	2.75	3.5 (177%)
Fight Starts Round X	1 (2%)	1	100 %	2.85	2.85	2.85	1.8 (185%)
X Wins by KO	4 (6%)	2	50 %	4.85	7.00	3.60	6.0 (150%)
X Wins by Sub	9 (14%)	1	11 %	6.19	26.00	2.75	-4.5 (-50%)
X Wins by Decision	12 (18%)	1	8 %	5.68	10.00	3.25	-3.0 (-25%)
X Wins Inside Distance	3 (5%)	2	67 %	2.69	2.80	2.60	2.4 (80%)
X Does NOT Win Inside Distance	1 (2%)	0	0 %	1.83	1.83	1.83	-1.0 (-100%)
X Wins in Round X	6 (9%)	0	0 %	15.97	34.00	7.65	-6.0 (-100%)
Others	6 (9%)	2	33 %	4.08	21.00	1.53	-1.5 (-24%)
	65	25	38 %	3.44			9.4 (14%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Positive Expectation's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
19th Nov	UFC Fight Night 99 - Mousasi vs. Hall	5	-5.0	-100%	$20	$10.00	$1,000.00	$930.00
19th Nov	UFC Fight Night 100 Bader vs. Nogueira 2	1	1.8	179%		$9.30	$930.00	$946.65
26th Nov	UFC Fight Night 101	27	15.7	58%	$20	$9.47	$946.65	$1,074.89
3rd Dec	UFC - The Ultimate Fighter 24 Finale	5	-5.0	-100%		$10.75	$1,074.89	$1,021.15
9th Dec	UFC Fight Night 102 Albany	13	3.5	27%		$10.21	$1,021.15	$1,056.89
10th Dec	UFC 206	12	4.0	33%		$10.57	$1,056.89	$1,099.16
15th Jan	UFC Fight Night 103 Rodriguez vs. Penn	11	-11.0	-100%		$10.99	$1,099.16	$978.25
11th Feb	UFC 208	1	8.0	800%		$9.78	$978.25	$1,056.52
19th Feb	UFC Fight Night 105 Lewis vs. Browne	9	1.4	16%		$10.57	$1,056.52	$1,071.31
4th Mar	UFC 209	18	14.1	79%		$10.71	$1,071.31	$1,222.90
8th Apr	UFC 210 - Cormier vs. Johnson 2	11	-11.0	-100%		$12.23	$1,222.90	$1,088.38
15th Apr	UFC on Fox 24 - Johnson vs Reis	17	2.9	17%		$10.88	$1,088.38	$1,119.40
13th May	UFC 211 - Miocic vs. Dos Santos	15	5.6	37%		$11.19	$1,119.40	$1,182.08
28th May	UFC Fight Night 109 Gustafsson Vs Teixeira	20	7.1	36%		$11.82	$1,182.08	$1,266.13
3rd Jun	UFC 212 Aldo vs Holloway	23	-15.2	-66%		$12.66	$1,266.13	$1,073.68
10th Jun	UFC Fight Night 110 Hunt vs. Lewis	23	13.0	57%	$20	$10.74	$1,073.68	$1,193.26
24th Jun	Bellator 180 Sonnen vs. Silva	5	4.8	96%		$11.93	$1,193.26	$1,250.53
25th Jun	UFC Fight Night 112	1	-1.0	-100%		$12.51	$1,250.53	$1,238.03
7th Jul	TUF Season 25 Finale	2	-2.0	-100%		$12.38	$1,238.03	$1,213.26
8th Jul	UFC 213	15	17.5	117%		$12.13	$1,213.26	$1,425.59
29th Jul	UFC 214	14.5	5.0	34%		$14.26	$1,425.59	$1,496.87
5th Aug	UFC Fight Night 114 Pettis vs. Moreno	4	-4.0	-100%		$14.97	$1,496.87	$1,436.99
2nd Sep	UFC Fight Night Struve vs. Volkov	4.5	-4.5	-100%		$14.37	$1,436.99	$1,372.33
9th Sep	UFC 215	7	-0.2	-4%		$13.72	$1,372.33	$1,368.90
16th Sep	UFC Fight Night 116 Rockhold vs. Branch	5	-5.0	-100%		$13.69	$1,368.90	$1,300.45
22nd Sep	UFC Fight Night 117 St. Preux vs. Shogun 2	16	6.7	42%		$13.00	$1,300.45	$1,387.58
7th Oct	UFC 216	10	4.0	40%		$13.88	$1,387.58	$1,443.78
21st Oct	UFC Fight Night 118 Gdansk	11.5	-3.0	-26%		$14.44	$1,443.78	$1,401.18
4th Nov	UFC 217	23.5	11.7	50%		$14.01	$1,401.18	$1,565.82
11th Nov	UFC Fight Night 120 Virginia	5	5.0	100%		$15.66	$1,565.82	$1,644.11
18th Nov	UFC Fight Night 121 Sydney	14	7.7	55%		$16.44	$1,644.11	$1,771.37
2nd Dec	UFC 218	20	-20.0	-100%		$17.71	$1,771.37	$1,417.09
16th Dec	UFC on Fox 26 Lawler vs. dos Anjos	44	31.5	72%		$14.17	$1,417.09	$1,863.90
31st Dec	UFC 219	3	-3.0	-100%		$18.64	$1,863.90	$1,807.99
20th Jan	UFC 220	3	5.2	172%		$18.08	$1,807.99	$1,901.28
4th Feb	UFC Fight Night 125	3	2.2	73%		$19.01	$1,901.28	$1,942.92
10th Feb	UFC 221	12	-1.1	-10%		$19.43	$1,942.92	$1,920.57
7th Apr	UFC 223	8	5.5	69%		$19.21	$1,920.57	$2,026.21
8th Sep	UFC 228	1	-1.0	-100%		$20.26	$2,026.21	$2,005.94
6th Oct	UFC 229	16	-8.2	-51%		$20.06	$2,005.94	$1,841.46
8th Jun	UFC 238	17	-7.7	-45%		$18.41	$1,841.46	$1,700.58
22nd Feb	UFC Fight Night 168	11	-11.0	-100%		$17.01	$1,700.58	$1,513.52
12th Nov	UFC 281	9	2.1	23%		$15.14	$1,513.52	$1,545.30

ROI % from starting bank balance: 54.53% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Positive Expectation: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Nov '22	Alex Pereira	Israel Adesanya	2.75	2	TKO, R5 (2:1)
2.	Oct '18	Jussier Formiga	Sergio Pettis	2.60	3	U Decision (3 rounds)
3.	Feb '18	Ross Pearson	Mizuto Hirota	1.77	3	U Decision (3 rounds)
4.	Feb '18	Jake Matthews	Li Jingliang	2.77	2	U Decision (3 rounds)
5.	Dec '17	Jordan Mein	Erick Silva	1.75	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
6.	Dec '17	Jan Blachowicz	Jared Cannonier	2.65	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
7.	Dec '17	Glover Teixeira	Misha Cirkunov	2.43	3	TKO, R1 (2:45)
8.	Nov '17	Frank Camacho	Damien Brown	1.77	5	Split Decision (3 rounds)
9.	Nov '17	Paulo Costa	Johny Hendricks	2.62	10	TKO, R2 (1:23)
10.	Oct '17	Andre Fili	Artem Lobov	1.71	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
11.	Oct '17	Poliana Botelho	Pearl Gonzalez	1.70	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
12.	Nov '17	Dustin Poirier	Anthony Pettis	2.00	5	TKO, R3 (2:8)
13.	Sep '17	Gokhan Saki	Luis Henrique da Silva	1.70	3	TKO, R1 (4:45)
14.	Sep '17	Ilir Latifi	Tyson Pedro	2.25	3	U Decision (3 rounds)
15.	Jun '17	Matt Mitrione	Fedor Emelianenko	1.80	3	TKO, R1 (1:14)
16.	Jul '17	Alistair Overeem	Fabricio Werdum	1.80	5	Split Decision (3 rounds)
17.	Jul '17	Robert Whittaker	Yoel Romero	2.35	10	U Decision (5 rounds)
18.	Jun '17	Raphael Assuncao	Marlon Moraes	2.60	3	Split Decision (3 rounds)
19.	May '17	Joaquim Silva	Reza Madadi	1.57	5	Split Decision (3 rounds)
20.	May '17	Trevor Smith	Chris Camozzi	3.11	3	U Decision (3 rounds)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Nov '22	Michael Chandler	Dustin Poirier	2.87	3	Sub, R3 (2:0)	No
2.	Feb '20	Magomed Mustafaev	Brad Riddell	1.87	11	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
3.	Jun '19	Jimmie Rivera	Petr Yan	3.90	3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
4.	Oct '18	Lina Lansberg	Yana Santos	3.04	3	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
5.	Oct '18	Conor McGregor	Khabib Nurmagomedov	2.64	3	Sub, R4 (3:2)	No
6.	Oct '18	Tonya Evinger	Aspen Ladd	2.60	6	TKO, R1 (3:26)	No
7.	Apr '18	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	Rose Namajunas	2.00	5	U Decision (5 rounds)	No
8.	Feb '18	Mark Hunt	Curtis Blaydes	2.45	2	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
9.	Feb '18	Jeremy Kennedy	Alex Volkanovski	2.65	2	TKO, R2 (4:57)	No
10.	Feb '18	Ben Nguyen	Jussier Formiga	2.10	3	Sub, R3 (1:41)	No
11.	Dec '17	Robbie Lawler	Rafael dos Anjos	2.10	3	U Decision (5 rounds)	No
12.	Dec '17	Cortney Casey	Felice Herrig	2.20	5	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
13.	Dec '17	Charles Oliveira	Paul Felder	2.15	5	TKO, R2 (4:6)	No
14.	Dec '17	Alistair Overeem	Francis Ngannou	3.40	5	TKO, R1 (1:42)	No
15.	Oct '17	Nasrat Haqparast	Marcin Held	4.75	0.5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
16.	Oct '17	Donald Cerrone	Darren Till	1.68	5	TKO, R1 (4:20)	No
17.	Sep '17	Hyun Gyu Lim	Daichi Abe	1.79	5	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
18.	Sep '17	Tony Martin	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	2.00	5	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
19.	Sep '17	Valentina Shevchenko	Amanda Nunes	1.83	3	Split Decision (5 rounds)	No
20.	Sep '17	Felipe Silva	Mairbek Taisumov	5.20	0.5	TKO, R1 (1:24)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Positive Expectation: Progress Chart

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