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Event Predictions

UFC Fight Night 78 - Magny vs. Gastelum

Monterrey, Mexico
2015-11-21 23:00:00

Favourite wins: 7
Underdog wins: 6
$10 on all favourites nets: $-21.40
$10 on all underdogs nets: $35.40

Unit Betting
Units Bet: 0.25. Profit: 0.05
Total Unit Profit: 0.05

$10 Average Betting System
$10 on all our picks (raw): $-48.10 (5 right, 8 wrong)
$10 on all our picks (weighted): $-29.80 (6 right, 7 wrong)
Weighted betting profit: $-16.34 (6 right, 7 wrong)
Value betting profit: $17.24 (7 right, 6 wrong)

Average Bet Rating: Fair
Average Value Bet Rating: Moderate

Key  
Bookies Odds Bookmaker Odds
Raw Picks Raw Picks
Raw Picks Crowd Prediction
Raw Picks Weighted Crowd Prediction
Raw Picks Your Prediction
Raw Picks Your Confidence
Raw Picks Bookmaker Favourite
Raw Picks Crowd Weighted Pick
Raw Picks Your Pick
Raw Picks Value Pick

Value Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Neil Magny vs Kelvin Gastelum Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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26%
   
75%
4 (11)%
 
31 (89)%
15%
 
85%
31%
 
69%
Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted Pick
WON
Anti-Pick Fair #13 Poor Pick Rating
LOST
@3.80 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @1.34
$10 Bet Profit: $-10 #13 Ranked $4.29 Bet Profit: $-4.29 #5 Ranked $10 Value Bet Profit: $28

Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Ricardo Lamas vs Diego Sanchez Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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80%
   
18%
27 (79)%
 
7 (21)%
82%
 
18%
71%
 
29%
Value Pick
WON
Pick Rating Poor #6 Good+ Anti-Pick
LOST
@1.25 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @5.46
$10 Bet Profit: $2.5 #6 Ranked $2.86 Bet Profit: $0.72 #7 Ranked $17.14 Value Bet Profit: $-17.14

Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Jussier Formiga vs Henry Cejudo Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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18%
   
83%
3 (7)%
 
38 (93)%
7%
 
93%
14%
 
86%
Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
LOST
#10 Low Pick Rating
WON
@5.49 Suggested Bet: 0.25 units on Henry Cejudo: Returned 0.05 Units   @1.20
$10 Bet Profit: $2 #10 Ranked $10 Bet Profit: $2 #8 Ranked $4.29 Value Bet Profit: $0.86

Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Erick Montano vs Enrique Marin Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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37%
   
65%
1 (14)%
 
6 (86)%
16%
 
84%
31%
 
69%
Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
WON
#9 Low Pick Rating
LOST
@2.70 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @1.54
$10 Bet Profit: $-10 #9 Ranked $11.43 Bet Profit: $-11.43 #13 Ranked $5.71 Value Bet Profit: $-5.71

Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted Pick
Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Horacio Gutierrez vs Enrique Barzola Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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64%
   
37%
5 (71)%
 
2 (29)%
73%
 
27%
56%
 
44%
Value Pick
LOST
Pick Rating Poor #12 Fair Anti-Pick
WON
@1.57 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @2.67
$10 Bet Profit: $-10 #12 Ranked $1.43 Bet Profit: $-1.43 #9 Ranked $8.57 Value Bet Profit: $14.31

Crowd Weighted PickValue Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Efrain Escudero vs Leandro Silva Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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42%
   
58%
12 (63)%
 
7 (37)%
63%
 
37%
65%
 
35%
Bookies Favourite
LOST
Pick Rating Good+ #1
WON
@2.40 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @1.71
$10 Bet Profit: $-10 #1 Ranked $17.14 Bet Profit: $-17.14 #1 Ranked $15.71 Value Bet Profit: $-15.71

Bookies Favourite
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Erik Perez vs Taylor Lapilus Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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55%
   
48%
3 (30)%
 
7 (70)%
28%
 
72%
34%
 
66%
Crowd Weighted PickValue Pick
WON
#3 Good Pick Rating
LOST
@1.83 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @2.10
$10 Bet Profit: $-10 #3 Ranked $15.71 Bet Profit: $-15.71 #3 Ranked $14.29 Value Bet Profit: $-14.29

Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Hector Urbina vs Bartosz Fabinski Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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37%
   
65%
1 (10)%
 
9 (90)%
7%
 
93%
36%
 
64%
Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
LOST
#8 Poor Pick Rating
WON
@2.72 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @1.55
$10 Bet Profit: $5.5 #8 Ranked $8.57 Bet Profit: $4.71 #12 Ranked $2.86 Value Bet Profit: $1.57

Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Scott Jorgensen vs Alejandro Perez Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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56%
   
46%
12 (71)%
 
5 (29)%
71%
 
29%
54%
 
46%
Value Pick
LOST
Pick Rating Poor #7 Poor Anti-Pick
WON
@1.80 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @2.17
$10 Bet Profit: $-10 #7 Ranked $7.14 Bet Profit: $-7.14 #11 Ranked $1.43 Value Bet Profit: $1.67

Value Pick
Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Gabriel Benitez vs Andre Fili Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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34%
   
67%
1 (6)%
 
15 (94)%
6%
 
94%
37%
 
63%
Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted Pick
LOST
Anti-Pick Low #11 Poor Pick Rating
WON
@2.90 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @1.49
$10 Bet Profit: $4.9 #11 Ranked $5.71 Bet Profit: $2.8 #10 Ranked $7.14 Value Bet Profit: $-7.14

Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Vernon Ramos vs Alvaro Herrera Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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61%
   
40%
6 (100)%
 
0 (0)%
100%
 
0%
73%
 
27%
LOST
Pick Rating Fair #5
WON
@1.63 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @2.50
$10 Bet Profit: $-10 #5 Ranked $12.86 Bet Profit: $-12.86 #6 Ranked $11.43 Value Bet Profit: $-11.43

Bookies Favourite
Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Cesar Arzamendia vs Marco Polo Reyes Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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64%
   
37%
2 (33)%
 
4 (67)%
29%
 
71%
33%
 
67%
Crowd Weighted PickValue Pick
LOST
#2 Extremely Good Pick Rating
WON
@1.57 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @2.70
$10 Bet Profit: $17 #2 Ranked $18.57 Bet Profit: $31.57 #2 Ranked $18.57 Value Bet Profit: $31.57

Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Valmir Lazaro vs Michel Prazeres Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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45%
   
55%
5 (63)%
 
3 (38)%
60%
 
40%
33%
 
67%
Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
LOST
#4 Moderate Pick Rating
WON
@2.22 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @1.83
$10 Bet Profit: $8.3 #4 Ranked $14.29 Bet Profit: $11.86 #4 Ranked $12.86 Value Bet Profit: $10.67


Chart

 

Unit Betting

$ bet per unit:

  % Chance Units
Bet
Potential
Win
Units
Profit
Cash
Bet
Cash
Profit
ROI
Bet on Henry Cejudo vs Jussier Formiga (@1.20) 86%   0.25   0.05   0.05   $0.00   $0.00 20%
Average Odds: @1.20   0.25 0.05 0.05   $0.00 $0.00 20.00%

Bet Every Fight: Bet Calculator

Total Bet Amount:

 

Weighted Betting

Based on a total bet of $130.00 over 13 fights
  Pick Opponent Bet Potential
Profit (ROI)
Risk Actual
Result (ROI)
#1 Marco Polo Reyes Cesar Arzamendia $18.57 $31.57
 
$31.57
#2 Efrain Escudero Leandro Silva $17.14 $24.00
 
-$17.14
#3 Taylor Lapilus Erik Perez $15.71 $17.28
 
-$15.71
#4 Michel Prazeres Valmir Lazaro $14.29 $11.86
 
$11.86
#5 Vernon Ramos Alvaro Herrera $12.86 $8.10
 
-$12.86
#6 Enrique Marin Erick Montano $11.43 $6.17
 
-$11.43
#7 Henry Cejudo Jussier Formiga $10.00 $2.00
 
$2.00
#8 Bartosz Fabinski Hector Urbina $8.57 $4.71
 
$4.71
#9 Scott Jorgensen Alejandro Perez $7.14 $5.71
 
-$7.14
#10 Andre Fili Gabriel Benitez $5.71 $2.80
 
$2.80
#11 Kelvin Gastelum Neil Magny $4.29 $1.46
 
-$4.29
#12 Ricardo Lamas Diego Sanchez $2.86 $0.72
 
$0.72
#13 Horacio Gutierrez Enrique Barzola $1.43 $0.82
 
-$1.43
      $130.00 $117.19 (90%)   $-16.34 (-13%)

Value Betting

  Pick Opponent Bet Potential
Profit (ROI)
Risk Actual
Result (ROI)
#1 Marco Polo Reyes Cesar Arzamendia $18.57 $31.57
 
$31.57
#2 Diego Sanchez Ricardo Lamas $17.14 $76.44
 
-$17.14
#3 Efrain Escudero Leandro Silva $15.71 $21.99
 
-$15.71
#4 Taylor Lapilus Erik Perez $14.29 $15.72
 
-$14.29
#5 Michel Prazeres Valmir Lazaro $12.86 $10.67
 
$10.67
#6 Vernon Ramos Alvaro Herrera $11.43 $7.20
 
-$11.43
#7 Neil Magny Kelvin Gastelum $10.00 $28.00
 
$28.00
#8 Enrique Barzola Horacio Gutierrez $8.57 $14.31
 
$14.31
#9 Gabriel Benitez Andre Fili $7.14 $13.57
 
-$7.14
#10 Enrique Marin Erick Montano $5.71 $3.08
 
-$5.71
#11 Henry Cejudo Jussier Formiga $4.29 $0.86
 
$0.86
#12 Bartosz Fabinski Hector Urbina $2.86 $1.57
 
$1.57
#13 Alejandro Perez Scott Jorgensen $1.43 $1.67
 
$1.67
      $130.00 $226.67 (174%)   $17.24 (13%)
 
 
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