| |
|
|
|
Straight Pick Stats
|
| |
Picks |
Correct |
% Correct |
Units Bet |
Units Profit |
Profit per Pick |
ROI |
| Big Favorites |
13 (24%) |
9 |
69 % |
51.55 |
-5.57 |
-0.43 |
-11% |
| Slight Favorites |
21 (38%) |
11 |
52 % |
39.42 |
-1.65 |
-0.08 |
-4% |
| Slight Underdogs |
15 (27%) |
5 |
33 % |
15.84 |
-6.86 |
-0.46 |
-43% |
| Big Underdogs |
6 (11%) |
1 |
17 % |
5.20 |
-1.70 |
-0.28 |
-33% |
|
Progress Chart
|
|
Click here to view breakdown of straight picks |
Brian III 's MMA Handicapper Bio
|
Marvin Vettori vs Kevin Holland – Vettori via 3rd Round Submission
I think this is a terrible stylistic matchup for Holland. He has shown to be very susceptible on the mat and while he is taking this fight more serious than the last, it still won’t fix his takedown defense and getup game which have been exploited by Brunson, Jacare, Meerschaert and Allen to name a few. On the feet this is close, I like Holland’s stand up to keep the range and have deceptive power through precise lanky shots but I favor Vettori’s all around game as he has solid counters and good volume over 25-minutes. I think Marvin can win this fight wherever it goes but the line is getting pretty high up there at this point.
Arnold Allen vs Sodiq Yusuff – Allen via Decision
This should be a fun one and I don’t have a strong lean. I favor Allen because of the durability concerns of Yusuff and possible wrestling advantages. Yusuff does have good takedown defense and is a big powerful guy that can win via measured damage and counters. I also think he fades a little bit down the stretch. Allen can sometimes be low output but I think in this matchup as the southpaw and more technical striker with head movement, he can do enough to outpoint a close decision victory.
Julian Marquez vs Sam Alvey – Marquez via 2nd Round KO
I have not been a supporter of either guy often but I am backing Julian here as I think this is a perfect stylistic matchup for him to get a win. Marquez struggles with takedowns, which Maki was able to expose in his last fight and he also tends to slow down in bouts. But I expect this to be a 15-minute low output striking battle and Alvey just is not a round winner nor does he have the power that Marquez has. This makes me think that as long as he can avoid the big bomb coming back his way, Marquez can win a decision but I expect him to finish Alvey.
Nina Nunes vs Mackenzie Dern – Dern via Decison
This is another close one, I think it will come down to the damage landed by Dern. If she can have big moments that swings the momentum of the fight, she can win rounds. Nina is the much better striker and lands at a decent clip. She has decent takedown defense but has been outmuscled in the past and struggles to get off of her back, but her submission defense is relatively solid. I wish Dern could wrestle more effectively and she would be a real threat in this division. I have been high on her for a while so she will be my pick because she is the dog but it is possible that this fight, if stuck at range looks like the Ribas fight.
Mike Perry vs Daniel Rodriguez – Perry via 2nd Round KO
I am not running to the window to bet Perry at this stage in his career but I do think this is a good stylistic matchup for him. He should have an advantage in his wrestling where he is generally very strong and underrated and while D-Rod lands with volume, he has been clipped on numerous occasions and tends to be losing these bouts until he pulls something out (Means, Grant, etc.). I also think Perry may have the more crisp boxing and like that he is now down at MMA Masters, this line should be flipped in my opinion.
Jim Miller vs Joe Solecki – Solecki via Decision
I like Solecki here but I am not sure about backing him in this spot. This is a good vet test for him to see where he is that. That being said, Jim Miller doesn’t win fights that go long at this point in his career. On the feet, I think Miller can win minutes with his boxing although Solecki is showing improvements in that area of his game. But on the mat, I think Solecki is the much better scrambler and is better positionally than Miller. It is hard to see either fighter getting finished on the mat so the over may be a good spot but I will sit back and watch this one.
Scott Holtzman vs Mateusz Gamrot – Holtzman via 2nd Round KO
I think this is a dog or pass spot. Gamrot has decent tools in his arsenal including good volume boxing, good level change doubles and defensively sound tactics but this is a big step up after a letdown his last fight. Holtzman has good power in his hands and is a really solid counter puncher. Further, while Gamrot implemented a wrestling gameplan against Guram, that isn’t really his game and I could see Holtzman winning the clinch battle. Gamrot is a bit overrated in my opinion and while I like him long-term, I think this is too much too soon for him so I will side with the vet in what should be a pick’em fight.
John Makdessi vs Ignacio Bahamondes – Bahamondes via Decision
It is hard for me to believe in Makdessi in 2021; I am not sure how he wins this fight other than a close decision. Ignacio throws with better volume and has a huge size advantage here. He has struggled in the past with wrestlers but Makdessi has never shot for a takedown in his UFC career. I think this is a setup fight to get Ignacio his first win but I don’t trust playing a debutant at such chalk.
Yorgan de Castro vs Jarjis Danho - de Castro via 1st Round KO
De Castro should roll here. I am not sure why Danho is back in the UFC after a 5 year layoff but he is very wild and doesn’t have much substance to his game other than size. Yorgan, while not the best, has good TDDef, good countering ability and big power that I think he will be able to finish Danho off, similar to the Tafa fight.
Hunter Azure vs Jack Shore – Shore via Decision
I think this is a knockout or bust spot for Azure. I have not been too impressed with him in his UFC career. He is pretty low volume and has a bad tendency of giving up his back. Shore is very good positionally and fights with constant pressure which makes him a big favorite here in my opinion. I also thought that his boxing looked much improved against Noehlin where he may even be able to win rounds standing. This line may be a bit too juiced at this point but I feel like Shore is a pretty solid spot.
Luis Saldana vs Jordan Griffin – Saldana via Decision
I tend to want to fade Griffin but I am not sold on Saldana or his competition level to date. He is a lanky striker with a flashy style from the outside but he is hittable and has been subbed in the past. Griffin is well tested so it wouldn’t surprise me to see him pull this one off but I don’t like his striking and wouldn’t trust him to out grapple Saldana to a victory.
Da Un Jung vs William Knight – Knight via 2nd Round TKO
I am not high on either guy in this matchup and have had cancelled bets against both guys. Jung probably wins this fight on the feet with volume although his fight with Alvey was a bit alarming as was the Khadis bout. I trust Knight a little more in this spot, also knowing that he could mix in the wrestling if needed. He is a slow starter so this could be a good live bet opportunity but then again, it appears Jung may be as well.
Impa Kasanganay vs Sasha Palatnikov – Kasaganay via Decision
Palatnikov was disrespected with his betting line in his debut and some may say the same here but I favor Impa pretty significantly as I feel he can win this fight wherever it takes place. However, he is still very green and I want to see how he looks a. coming off the loss and b. down at 170. He should be able to wrestle here if wanted, but his easiest path to victory is probably a stick and move style similar to his Maki fight. I look for him to bounce back here.
|
Picks on Upcoming MMA Fights by Brian III |
UFC 261, Jacksonville, 24th Apr '21
| Props and Parlays |
|
|
Unit
Bet |
|
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
Odds |
| Pi |
Kevin Holland vs Marvin Vettori |
Vettori to win |
1.38 |
| Pi |
Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal |
Usman to win |
1.25 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
1.72 |
|
|
3 |
|
|
UFC 262, Las Vegas, 15th May '21
UFC FN, Las Vegas, 24th Jul '21
|
Brian III 's MMA Handicapper's Pick History
|
Your $ bet per unit is set at $10. You can edit that value in your settings.
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Patricio Freire vs Emmanuel Sanchez |
Freire to win |
W |
1.36 |
| Pi |
Julian Marquez vs Sam Alvey |
Marquez to win |
W |
1.61 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
2.19 |
|
|
1 |
1.19 |
$11.90 |
119% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| PrPi |
Arnold Allen vs Sodiq Yusuff |
Allen wins in round 3 |
L |
22.00 |
|
|
0.1 |
-0.10 |
$-1.00 |
-100% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
1.10 |
1.09 |
$10.90 |
99% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
3.60 |
2.20 |
$22.03 |
61% |
|
UFC 260, Las Vegas,
28th Mar '21 |
| Pick |
Opponent |
|
Odds |
Unit
Bet |
Unit
Profit |
Cash
Profit |
ROI |
|
| Stipe Miocic |
Francis Ngannou |
L |
2.25 |
2 |
-2.00 |
$-20.00 |
-100% |
|
| Straight Pick Event Totals: |
|
2.25 |
2.00 |
-2.00 |
$-20.00 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| PrPi |
Tyron Woodley vs Vicente Luque |
Luque wins by submission |
W |
16.00 |
|
|
0.2 |
3.00 |
$30.00 |
1,500% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Jamie Mullarkey vs Khama Worthy |
NOT Worthy wins inside distance |
W |
1.50 |
| Pr |
Gillian Robertson vs Miranda Maverick |
Over 2.5 rounds |
W |
1.56 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
2.35 |
|
|
0.5 |
0.67 |
$6.74 |
135% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| PrPi |
Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs Jared Gooden |
Gooden wins by TKO/KO |
L |
8.00 |
|
|
0.15 |
-0.15 |
$-1.50 |
-100% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
0.85 |
3.52 |
$35.24 |
415% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
2.85 |
1.52 |
$15.24 |
53% |
|
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Nasrat Haqparast vs Rafa Garcia |
Haqparast to win |
W |
1.25 |
| Pi |
Montel Jackson vs Jesse Strader |
Jackson to win |
W |
1.20 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
1.50 |
|
|
3 |
1.50 |
$15.00 |
50% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
3.00 |
1.50 |
$15.00 |
50% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
3.00 |
1.50 |
$15.00 |
50% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Nasrat Haqparast vs Rafa Garcia |
Haqparast to win |
W |
1.29 |
| PrPi |
Gavin Tucker vs Dan Ige |
Tucker wins in round 3 |
L |
21.00 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
27.00 |
|
|
0.2 |
-0.20 |
$-2.00 |
-100% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
0.20 |
-0.20 |
$-2.00 |
-100% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
2.20 |
1.75 |
$17.47 |
79% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Islam Makhachev vs Drew Dober |
Makhachev to win |
W |
1.30 |
|
|
1.06 |
0.32 |
$3.16 |
30% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
1.06 |
0.32 |
$3.16 |
30% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
3.36 |
-1.98 |
$-19.84 |
-59% |
|
|
| Pick |
Opponent |
|
Odds |
Unit
Bet |
Unit
Profit |
Cash
Profit |
ROI |
|
| Magomed Ankalaev |
Nikita Krylov |
W |
1.34 |
2.9 |
1.00 |
$10.00 |
34% |
|
| Straight Pick Event Totals: |
|
1.34 |
2.90 |
1.00 |
$10.00 |
34% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| PrPi |
Alexander Hernandez vs Thiago Moises |
Moises wins by TKO/KO |
L |
11.00 |
|
|
0.15 |
-0.15 |
$-1.50 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Vince Cachero vs Ronnie Lawrence |
Lawrence to win |
W |
1.61 |
| Pr |
Alexis Davis vs Sabina Mazo |
Fight goes to decision |
W |
1.33 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
2.15 |
|
|
1 |
1.15 |
$11.46 |
115% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
1.15 |
1.00 |
$9.96 |
87% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
4.05 |
2.00 |
$19.96 |
49% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
7.50 |
-0.28 |
$-2.78 |
-4% |
|
UFC FN, Las Vegas,
6th Feb '21 |
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| PrPi |
Alexandre Pantoja vs Manel Kape |
Pantoja wins by decision |
W |
4.00 |
|
|
1 |
3.00 |
$30.00 |
300% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Michael Johnson vs Clay Guida |
NOT Guida wins by decision |
L |
1.26 |
| Pr |
Cory Sandhagen vs Frankie Edgar |
NOT Sandhagen wins inside distance |
L |
1.43 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
1.80 |
|
|
0.625 |
-0.63 |
$-6.25 |
-100% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
1.63 |
2.38 |
$23.75 |
146% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
1.63 |
2.38 |
$23.75 |
146% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
5.00 |
-1.50 |
$-15.00 |
-30% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Carlos Felipe vs Justin Tafa |
Felipe to win |
W |
1.53 |
| Pi |
Ricky Simon vs Gaetano Pirrello |
Simon to win |
W |
1.30 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
1.99 |
|
|
1.01 |
1.00 |
$9.99 |
99% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
1.01 |
1.00 |
$9.99 |
99% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
4.51 |
-2.50 |
$-25.01 |
-55% |
|
UFC FN, Yas Island,
16th Jan '21 |
| Pick |
Opponent |
|
Odds |
Unit
Bet |
Unit
Profit |
Cash
Profit |
ROI |
|
| Dusko Todorovic |
Punahele Soriano |
L |
1.83 |
1.2 |
-1.20 |
$-12.00 |
-100% |
|
| Straight Pick Event Totals: |
|
1.83 |
1.20 |
-1.20 |
$-12.00 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Austin Lingo vs Jacob Kilburn |
Under 2.5 rounds |
L |
2.16 |
|
|
0.75 |
-0.75 |
$-7.50 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| PrPi |
Carlos Condit vs Matt Brown |
Condit wins by KO/TKO or Sub |
L |
4.40 |
|
|
0.5 |
-0.50 |
$-5.00 |
-100% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
1.25 |
-1.25 |
$-12.50 |
-100% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
2.45 |
-2.45 |
$-24.50 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Michel Pereira vs Kalinn Williams |
Pereira to win |
W |
1.86 |
| Pi |
Pannie Kianzad vs Sijara Eubanks |
Eubanks to win |
L |
1.62 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
3.01 |
|
|
0.75 |
-0.75 |
$-7.50 |
-100% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
0.75 |
-0.75 |
$-7.50 |
-100% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
2.87 |
-0.55 |
$-5.50 |
-19% |
|
UFC 256, Las Vegas,
13th Dec '20 |
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Cub Swanson vs Daniel Pineda |
Under 2.5 rounds |
W |
2.00 |
|
|
0.5 |
0.50 |
$5.00 |
100% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
0.50 |
0.50 |
$5.00 |
100% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
0.50 |
0.50 |
$5.00 |
100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pi |
Jack Hermansson vs Marvin Vettori |
Hermansson to win |
L |
2.20 |
| Pi |
Ovince St Preux vs Jamahal Hill |
Hill to win |
W |
1.63 |
| Pi |
Roman Dolidze vs John Allan |
Dolidze to win |
W |
1.53 |
| Pi |
Matt Wiman vs Jordan Leavitt |
Leavitt to win |
W |
1.25 |
| Pi |
Gabriel Benitez vs Justin Jaynes |
Benitez to win |
W |
1.45 |
| Pi |
Damon Jackson vs Ilia Topuria |
Topuria to win |
W |
1.43 |
| Pi |
Louis Smolka vs Jose Quinonez |
Quinonez to win |
L |
2.15 |
| |
|
Parlay Odds: |
128.26 |
|
|
0.1 |
-0.10 |
$-1.00 |
-100% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
0.10 |
-0.10 |
$-1.00 |
-100% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
7.92 |
4.15 |
$41.50 |
52% |
|
UFC Vegas 15, Las Vegas,
29th Nov '20 |
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| PrPi |
Miguel Baeza vs Takashi Sato |
Baeza wins by submission |
W |
13.00 |
|
|
0.25 |
3.00 |
$30.00 |
1,200% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
0.25 |
3.00 |
$30.00 |
1,200% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
0.25 |
3.00 |
$30.00 |
1,200% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| Pr |
Alan Jouban vs Jared Gooden |
Fight doesn't go to decision |
L |
1.89 |
|
|
1.12 |
-1.12 |
$-11.20 |
-100% |
|
| |
Fight |
Pick |
|
Odds |
| PrPi |
Louis Cosce vs Sasha Palatnikov |
Cosce wins in round 1 |
L |
2.85 |
|
|
0.5 |
-0.50 |
$-5.00 |
-100% |
|
| Prop & Parlay Event Totals: |
|
1.62 |
-1.62 |
$-16.20 |
-100% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
4.82 |
-2.62 |
$-26.20 |
-54% |
|
UFC Vegas 14, Las Vegas,
14th Nov '20 |
| Pick |
Opponent |
|
Odds |
Unit
Bet |
Unit
Profit |
Cash
Profit |
ROI |
|
| Alex Morono |
Rhys McKee |
W |
1.56 |
2.67 |
1.50 |
$15.00 |
56% |
|
| Straight Pick Event Totals: |
|
1.56 |
2.67 |
1.50 |
$15.00 |
56% |
|
| Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets): |
|
2.67 |
1.50 |
$15.00 |
56% |
|
|
| |
|
|
| | |
