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MMA Handicapper Profile: The Hot Teapot

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The Hot Teapot (LeChiffre)


MMA MHandicapper - The Hot Teapot

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MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats

Straight Fight Picks

Props

Parlays

Right 13 (54%) Right 13 (54%) Right 0 (0%) Right 0 (0%)
Wrong 11 (46%) Wrong 11 (46%) Wrong 0 (0%) Wrong 0 (0%)
Avg Odds 1.94 Avg Odds 1.94 Avg Odds 0.00 Avg Odds 0.00
Units Bet 44.0 Units Bet 44.0 Units Bet 0.0 Units Bet 0.0
Avg Bet 1.83 Avg Bet 1.83 Avg Bet 0.00 Avg Bet 0.00
Units Profit 0.76 Units Profit 0.76 Units Profit 0.00 Units Profit 0.00
ROI % 2% ROI % 2% ROI % 0% ROI % 0%
View Handicapper's Stats

Straight Pick Stats

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 5 (21%) 4 80 % 10.00 0.84 0.17 8%
Slight Favorites 7 (29%) 4 57 % 15.00 -2.10 -0.30 -14%
Slight Underdogs 11 (46%) 4 36 % 18.00 -0.28 -0.03 -2%
Big Underdogs 1 (4%) 1 100 % 1.00 2.30 2.30 230%
 

Progress Chart

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The Hot Teapot's MMA Handicapper Bio

Been a fan for a while now and decided to give MMA the ol' spreadsheet breakdown for shits n' giggles. Whoever stated 'MMA is the most unpredictable sport in the world' is a bloody moron. There's a critical lack of statistical models in this sport (data driven, not eyeballing a few stats to sharpen an opinion) and I'm here to provide.
So yeah, bookies are idiots, money's up for grabs and I'm spreading the love.

Will try to be as open as possible about my methods but obv can't give it away.
A few things to note about how it works and how much of it I'll be putting out there :
-> Straight picks only, model currently doesn't solve for props. No parlays either, hand-picking defeats the purpose of automation.
-> Will recommend units as % of your bankroll, as any handicapper should. I basically have 3 levels depending on confidence/value, you can tweak your own units if you prefer.
-> Won't go odds hunting. I just stick with sharps. It does leave value on the table for me but I prefer to work towards generating value, not conserving scraps. Plenty of ways to find better odds for yourself if you want to (bestfightsodds, oddsportal...)
-> Stats used include hitting or missing weight, so picks will be released quite close to fight night.
-> Stats are much easier to come by for the UFC than other promotions, will be sticking to them for the time being.
-> Stats work by working out a general rule and applying to all, value stems from volume consolidating the edge. Individual picks can therefore present logical pitfalls that the algo doesn't always catch. I'll try my best to flag these for you as notes but will keep the recommendations included as full disclosure of my calculations. Don't worry about it too much though, as you will see the edge is strong with this one.

I'll start off by leaving my picks free for a bit to prove my worth.



Hit ya boi up if you have any questions :)  

Picks on Upcoming MMA Fights by The Hot Teapot

This handicapper has made no picks on upcoming fights.

The Hot Teapot's MMA Handicapper's Pick History


Your $ bet per unit is set at $10. You can edit that value in your settings.

UFC Fight Night 163, Moscow, 9th Nov '19

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Zabit Magomedsharipov Calvin Kattar W 1.36 2 0.72 $7.20 36% Bet Info
Alexander Volkov Greg Hardy W 1.37 2 0.74 $7.40 37% Bet Info
Khadis Ibragimov Ed Herman L 1.78 2 -2.00 $-20.00 -100% Bet Info
Magomed Ankalaev Dalcha Lungiambula W 1.24 2 0.48 $4.80 24% Bet Info
Sergey Khandozhko Rustam Khabilov L 2.65 2 -2.00 $-20.00 -100% Bet Info
Jessica-Rose Clark Pannie Kianzad L 1.93 4 -4.00 $-40.00 -100% Bet Info
Davey Grant Grigory Popov W 2.65 2 3.30 $33.00 165% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   1.70 16.00 -2.76 $-27.60 -17%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   16.00 -2.76 $-27.60 -17%  

UFC 244, New York, 2nd Nov '19

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Nate Diaz Jorge Masvidal L 2.50 2 -2.00 $-20.00 -100% Bet Info
Vicente Luque Stephen Thompson L 2.01 2 -2.00 $-20.00 -100% Bet Info
Derrick Lewis Blagoy Ivanov W 1.95 2 1.90 $19.00 95% Bet Info
Gregor Gillespie Kevin Lee L 1.69 2 -2.00 $-20.00 -100% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Corey Anderson Johnny Walker W 2.46 2 2.92 $29.20 146% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Shane Burgos Makwan Amirkhani W 1.45 2 0.90 $9.00 45% Bet Info
Lyman Good Chance Rencountre W 1.88 2 1.76 $17.60 88% Bet Info
Hakeem Dawodu Julio Arce W 1.83 2 1.66 $16.60 83% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   1.92 16.00 3.14 $31.40 20%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   16.00 3.14 $31.40 20%  

UFC Fight Night 162, Kallang, 26th Oct '19

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Demian Maia Ben Askren W 2.50 1 1.50 $15.00 150% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Demian Maia Ben Askren W 2.50 2 3.00 $30.00 150% Bet Info
Stevie Ray Michael Johnson W 3.30 1 2.30 $23.00 230% Bet Info
Frank Camacho Beneil Dariush L 2.59 1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
Laureano Staropoli Muslim Salikhov L 2.42 2 -2.00 $-20.00 -100% Bet Info
Ashley Yoder Randa Markos L 2.21 1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
Alex White Rafael Fiziev L 2.65 1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
Movsar Evloev Enrique Barzola W 1.58 1 0.58 $5.80 58% Bet Info
Jeff Hughes Raphael Pessoa L 1.44 2 -2.00 $-20.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.22 12.00 0.38 $3.80 3%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   12.00 0.38 $3.80 3%  



>>>> Showing Last 20 events: Click to view full history

 
 
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