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Total MMA Handicappers: 6363
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MMA Handicapper Stats: UFC MMA

UFC MMA (KillaGuerilla)

MMA MHandicapper - UFC MMA

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MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats

Straight Fight Picks

Props

Parlays
Right 167 (46%) Right 52 (60%) Right 82 (39%) Right 33 (50%)
Wrong 197 (54%) Wrong 34 (40%) Wrong 130 (61%) Wrong 33 (50%)
Avg Odds 2.30 Avg Odds 1.88 Avg Odds 2.48 Avg Odds 2.45
Units Bet 515.9 Units Bet 165.6 Units Bet 237.3 Units Bet 113.0
Avg Bet 1.42 Avg Bet 1.93 Avg Bet 1.12 Avg Bet 1.71
Units Profit 21.96 Units Profit 16.15 Units Profit -23.77 Units Profit 29.58
ROI % 4% ROI % 10% ROI % -10% ROI % 26%
View Handicapper's Profile

UFC MMA: Event by Event Predictions
The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date Event Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
20th Nov '21 UFC FN 31.1 -15.8 -51% 3.0 / 10.6 (28%) -18.9 / 20.5 (-92%)
13th Nov '21 UFC FN 36.85 9.1 25% 8.0 / 13.1 (61%) 1.1 / 23.75 (5%)
6th Nov '21 UFC 268 28.25 -7.6 -27% 2.3 / 2.75 (84%) -6.9 / 22.5 (-31%) -3.0 / 3 (-100%)
30th Oct '21 UFC 267 33.05 25.8 78% 3.4 / 13.35 (26%) 3.7 / 15.2 (24%) 18.8 / 4.5 (417%)
23rd Oct '21 UFC FN 21 -1.9 -9% 3.2 / 5 (63%) -5.0 / 16 (-32%)
16th Oct '21 UFC FN 9.85 6.2 63% 2.8 / 2.5 (113%) 3.4 / 7.35 (46%)
9th Oct '21 UFC FN 26.75 -6.2 -23% -2.2 / 9.1 (-24%) -4.0 / 17.65 (-23%)
2nd Oct '21 UFC FN 20.2 4.0 20% -1.9 / 8.75 (-22%) 6.0 / 11.45 (52%)
18th Sep '21 UFC FN 7.5 -2.9 -38% -3.5 / 6 (-58%) 0.6 / 1.5 (43%)
4th Sep '21 UFC FN 15.8 3.4 22% 5.5 / 10 (55%) -2.1 / 5.8 (-37%)
7th Aug '21 UFC 265 20.25 -2.7 -13% 2.5 / 6.5 (39%) -6.2 / 12.75 (-48%) 1.0 / 1 (95%)
31st Jul '21 UFC FN 11 -3.6 -33% 0.9 / 6.5 (14%) -4.5 / 4.5 (-100%)
24th Jul '21 UFC FN 15.5 1.7 11% 5.6 / 4 (140%) -1.6 / 7 (-23%) -2.3 / 4.5 (-51%)
17th Jul '21 UFC FN 15.75 -3.8 -24% -4.0 / 4 (-100%) -0.8 / 10.75 (-8%) 1.0 / 1 (99%)
10th Jul '21 UFC 264 23 -1.0 -4% -3.8 / 10.25 (-37%) 4.2 / 9.25 (45%) -1.4 / 3.5 (-40%)
26th Jun '21 UFC FN 24.25 13.4 55% 2.1 / 6.5 (33%) 8.3 / 14.25 (58%) 3.0 / 3.5 (86%)
19th Jun '21 UFC FN 18.5 0.3 2% -0.6 / 4 (-16%) 0.9 / 14.5 (6%)
12th Jun '21 UFC 263 20.25 -3.4 -17% -3.1 / 11.5 (-27%) 0.8 / 2.25 (37%) -1.1 / 6.5 (-18%)
5th Jun '21 UFC FN 12.75 6.8 53% 0.4 / 0.75 (53%) 5.3 / 9 (59%) 1.1 / 3 (36%)
22nd May '21 UFC FN 10.18 2.6 25% 0.2 / 1.75 (12%) 1.6 / 3.93 (40%) 0.8 / 4.5 (18%)
15th May '21 UFC 262 4 -4.0 -100% -4.0 / 4 (-100%)
8th May '21 UFC FN 8.25 -8.3 -100% -2.5 / 2.5 (-100%) -4.8 / 4.75 (-100%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
1st May '21 UFC FN 6 2.7 44% 1.7 / 4.5 (38%) 1.0 / 1.5 (64%)
24th Apr '21 UFC 261 5 2.8 56% 2.8 / 5 (56%)
17th Apr '21 UFC FN 9.25 2.8 31% 3.3 / 8.75 (38%) -0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)
1st Aug '20 UFC Vegas 5 10.5 -10.5 -100% -5.0 / 5 (-100%) -5.5 / 5.5 (-100%)
25th Jul '20 UFC Fight Island 3 14.5 10.1 70% -1.5 / 1.5 (-100%) 11.6 / 13 (90%)
18th Jul '20 UFC Fight Island 2 14 -5.5 -40% 0.9 / 2 (43%) 0.7 / 1 (74%) -7.2 / 11 (-65%)
15th Jul '20 UFC Fight Island 1 12.92 -11.6 -89% -1.4 / 1.42 (-100%) -0.5 / 0.5 (-100%) -9.6 / 11 (-88%)
11th Jul '20 UFC 251 15 18.6 124% -0.2 / 3 (-7%) 0.5 / 1 (54%) 18.3 / 11 (166%)
30th May '20 UFC Fight Night 172 16 2.3 14% -1.0 / 1 (-100%) 3.3 / 15 (22%)


Winning Events: 16 (52%)
Losing Events: 15 (48%)

Average Staked Per Event: 16.68 units
Most Staked On One Event: 36.85 units
Best Event: 25.84 units
Worst Event: -15.84 units
Average Event: 0.77 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 3, Units: 25.84
Max Losing Streak: Events: 2, Units: -17.11

UFC MMA: Year on Year Profit
Year Bet Won ROI Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%)		 Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%)		 Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%)		 Events
Won / Lost (%)		 Profit
Per Event
2021 434.28 20.5 5% 19.4 / 156.65 (12%) -19.6 / 233.13 (-8%) 20.6 / 44.5 (46%) 13 / 12 (52%) 0.82
2020 82.92 3.5 4% -3.2 / 8.92 (-36%) -4.2 / 7.5 (-56%) 10.9 / 66.5 (16%) 3 / 3 (50%) 0.58

UFC MMA: Yearly Straight Pick Stats
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UFC MMA: Profit / Loss by Organization
Organization Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
UFC 517.2 24.0 5% 16.1 / 165.57 (10%) -23.8 / 240.63 (-10%) 31.6 / 111 (28%)

UFC MMA: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 21 (22%) 17 81 % 56.50 9.70 0.46 17%
Slight Favorites 37 (39%) 23 62 % 56.87 -0.14 -0.00 -0%
Slight Underdogs 27 (28%) 16 59 % 33.45 14.51 0.54 43%
Big Underdogs 11 (11%) 2 18 % 18.75 -7.92 -0.72 -42%



Betting Stats By Card Position

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Main Event 13 (14%) 8 62 % 22.50 4.84 0.37 22%
Co-Main Event 12 (13%) 10 83 % 19.00 8.77 0.73 46%
Position 3-5 21 (22%) 11 52 % 43.52 -6.67 -0.32 -15%
6+ (Undercard) 50 (52%) 29 58 % 80.55 9.21 0.18 11%

UFC MMA: Profit by Weight Class
  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Heavyweight 11 (11%) 9 82 % 18.15 7.55 0.69 42%
Light Heavy 12 (13%) 8 67 % 21.50 6.02 0.50 28%
Middleweight 16 (17%) 9 56 % 36.60 -0.13 -0.01 -0%
Welterweight 6 (6%) 3 50 % 7.85 0.06 0.01 1%
Lightweight 6 (6%) 3 50 % 7.10 3.11 0.52 44%
Featherweight 7 (7%) 1 14 % 10.45 -6.89 -0.98 -66%
Bantamweight 14 (15%) 11 79 % 28.25 6.33 0.45 22%
Flyweight 4 (4%) 3 75 % 8.25 -0.38 -0.10 -5%
               
Women's Fights 20 (21%) 11 55 % 27.42 0.48 0.02 2%
Featherweight 2 (2%) 2 100 % 1.50 1.91 0.95 127%
Bantamweight 2 (2%) 0 % 2.00 -2.00 -1.00 -100%
Flyweight 11 (11%) 6 55 % 17.42 -1.61 -0.15 -9%
Strawweight 5 (5%) 3 60 % 6.50 2.17 0.43 33%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
Big Favorites 119 (83%) 107 90 %
Slight Favorites 18 (13%) 8 44 %
Slight Underdogs 4 (3%) 0 0 %
Big Underdogs 3 (2%) 0 0 %
144 115 80 %

 

Props bets and props within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
>65% chance 63 (23%) 42 67 %
50-65% 59 (22%) 40 68 %
35-50% 58 (21%) 18 31 %
<35% chance 93 (34%) 17 18 %
273 117 43 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types
Prop Type Picks Correct % Correct Avg
Odds		 Longest
Odds		 Shortest
Odds		 1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 58 (21%) 39 67 % 1.53 2.23Pick was incorrect 1.20Pick was correct 1.4 (2%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 1 (0%) 0 0 % 1.36 1.36Pick was incorrect 1.36Pick was incorrect -1.0 (-100%)
Does not go to Decision 60 (22%) 36 60 % 1.66 2.70Pick was incorrect 1.20Pick was correct -1.0 (-2%)
Fight Starts Round X 1 (0%) 0 0 % 1.96 1.96Pick was incorrect 1.96Pick was incorrect -1.0 (-100%)
X Wins by KO 11 (4%) 1 9 % 3.94 10.00Pick was incorrect 1.80Pick was incorrect -8.0 (-73%)
X Wins by Sub 19 (7%) 1 5 % 5.28 27.00Pick was incorrect 2.10Pick was incorrect -14.4 (-76%)
X Wins by Decision 57 (21%) 14 25 % 3.21 9.00Pick was incorrect 1.71Pick was incorrect -9.1 (-16%)
X Wins Inside Distance 54 (20%) 23 43 % 2.67 7.50Pick was incorrect 1.23Pick was correct 6.6 (12%)
X Wins in Round X 2 (1%) 0 0 % 4.10 23.00Pick was incorrect 2.25Pick was incorrect -2.0 (-100%)
Others 10 (4%) 3 30 % 2.08 13.00Pick was incorrect 1.44Pick was incorrect -5.4 (-54%)
273 117 43 % 2.18     -34.0 (-12%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail UFC MMA's bets
If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date Event Bet Won ROI Fee 1 unit = Start End
30th May UFC Fight Night 172 16 2.3 14% $10.00 $1,000.00 $1,023.00
11th Jul UFC 251 15 18.6 124% $10.23 $1,023.00 $1,213.73
15th Jul UFC Fight Island 1 12.92 -11.6 -89% $5 $12.14 $1,213.73 $1,068.43
18th Jul UFC Fight Island 2 14 -5.5 -40% $5 $10.68 $1,068.43 $1,004.16
25th Jul UFC Fight Island 3 14.5 10.1 70% $5 $10.04 $1,004.16 $1,100.95
1st Aug UFC Vegas 5 10.5 -10.5 -100% $5 $11.01 $1,100.95 $980.35
17th Apr UFC FN 9.25 2.8 31% $5 $9.80 $980.35 $1,003.02
24th Apr UFC 261 5 2.8 56% $5 $10.03 $1,003.02 $1,025.88
1st May UFC FN 6 2.7 44% $5 $10.26 $1,025.88 $1,048.12
8th May UFC FN 8.25 -8.3 -100% $5 $10.48 $1,048.12 $956.65
15th May UFC 262 4 -4.0 -100% $5 $9.57 $956.65 $913.39
22nd May UFC FN 10.18 2.6 25% $5 $9.13 $913.39 $931.90
5th Jun UFC FN 12.75 6.8 53% $5 $9.32 $931.90 $990.06
12th Jun UFC 263 20.25 -3.4 -17% $5 $9.90 $990.06 $951.27
19th Jun UFC FN 18.5 0.3 2% $5 $9.51 $951.27 $949.18
26th Jun UFC FN 24.25 13.4 55% $5 $9.49 $949.18 $1,071.65
10th Jul UFC 264 23 -1.0 -4% $5 $10.72 $1,071.65 $1,056.28
17th Jul UFC FN 15.75 -3.8 -24% $5 $10.56 $1,056.28 $1,010.63
24th Jul UFC FN 15.5 1.7 11% $5 $10.11 $1,010.63 $1,022.65
31st Jul UFC FN 11 -3.6 -33% $5 $10.23 $1,022.65 $980.63
7th Aug UFC 265 20.25 -2.7 -13% $5 $9.81 $980.63 $949.34
4th Sep UFC FN 15.8 3.4 22% $5 $9.49 $949.34 $976.62
18th Sep UFC FN 7.5 -2.9 -38% $5 $9.77 $976.62 $943.72
2nd Oct UFC FN 20.2 4.0 20% $5 $9.44 $943.72 $976.75
9th Oct UFC FN 26.75 -6.2 -23% $9.77 $976.75 $916.41
16th Oct UFC FN 9.85 6.2 63% $9.16 $916.41 $972.93
23rd Oct UFC FN 21 -1.9 -9% $5 $9.73 $972.93 $949.51
30th Oct UFC 267 33.05 25.8 78% $5 $9.50 $949.51 $1,189.85
6th Nov UFC 268 28.25 -7.6 -27% $11.90 $1,189.85 $1,099.74
13th Nov UFC FN 36.85 9.1 25% $11.00 $1,099.74 $1,200.25
20th Nov UFC FN 31.1 -15.8 -51% $12.00 $1,200.25 $1,010.12


ROI % from starting bank balance: 1.01% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

UFC MMA: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)
Last 20 Wins
  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result    
1. Nov '21 Rani Yahya Kyung Ho Kang 1.98 2.25 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
2. Nov '21 Rafa Garcia Natan Levy 1.91 1.6 U Decision (3 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
3. Nov '21 Cody Durden Qileng Aori 1.77 1.5 U Decision (3 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
4. Nov '21 Sean Brady Michael Chiesa 1.70 1 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
5. Nov '21 Adrian Yanez Davey Grant 1.40 1.25 Split Decision (3 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
6. Nov '21 Marcos Rogerio de Lima Ben Rothwell 2.50 0.4 TKO, R1 (0:32) MMA Bookmaker
7. Nov '21 Cortney Casey Liana Jojua 1.48 1.5 U Decision (3 rounds) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
8. Nov '21 Rafael Alves Marc Diakiese 2.65 2.25 Sub, R1 (1:48) MMA Bookmaker
9. Nov '21 Marcos Rogerio de Lima Ben Rothwell 2.47 1.6 TKO, R1 (0:32) MMA Bookmaker
10. Nov '21 Da Un Jung Kennedy Nzechukwu 1.87 1.75 TKO, R1 (3:4) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
11. Nov '21 Yadong Song Julio Arce 1.77 1.5 TKO, R2 (1:35) MMA Bookmaker
12. Nov '21 Andrea Lee Cynthia Calvillo 2.05 1 TKO, R2 (5:0) MMA Bookmaker
13. Nov '21 Rose Namajunas Weili Zhang 2.00 1 Split Decision (5 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
14. Nov '21 Nassourdine Imavov Edmen Shahbazyan 1.87 1 TKO, R2 (4:42) MMA Bookmaker
15. Nov '21 Bobby Green Al Iaquinta 1.60 0.75 TKO, R1 (2:25) MMA Bookmaker
16. Oct '21 Amanda Ribas Virna Jandiroba 1.65 1.75 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
17. Oct '21 Glover Teixeira Jan Blachowicz 3.70 1.25 Sub, R2 (3:2) MMA Bookmaker
18. Oct '21 Petr Yan Cory Sandhagen 1.49 1 U Decision (5 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
19. Oct '21 Andre Petroski Hu Yaozong 1.47 1.35 Sub, R3 (4:46) View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
20. Oct '21 Petr Yan Cory Sandhagen 1.44 4 U Decision (5 rounds) MMA Bookmaker



Last 20 Losses

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result Hedge?    
1. Nov '21 Sean Soriano Yilan Sha 1.38 1 U Decision (3 rounds) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
2. Nov '21 Miesha Tate Ketlen Vieira 2.00 1 U Decision (5 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
3. Nov '21 Joanne Wood Taila Santos 3.85 1 Sub, R1 (4:49) No MMA Bookmaker
4. Nov '21 Yair Rodriguez Max Holloway 6.00 1.75 U Decision (5 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
5. Nov '21 Miguel Baeza Kalinn Williams 1.73 1.35 TKO, R3 (1:2) No MMA Bookmaker
6. Oct '21 Makwan Amirkhani Lerone Murphy 3.65 4 TKO, R2 (0:14) No MMA Bookmaker
7. Oct '21 Ike Villanueva Nick Negumereanu 3.20 1 TKO, R1 (1:18) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
8. Oct '21 Jun Yong Park Gregory Rodrigues 2.05 1 TKO, R2 (3:13) No MMA Bookmaker
9. Oct '21 Felipe Colares Chris Gutierrez 3.15 1 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
10. Oct '21 Charles Rosa Damon Jackson 2.64 0.2 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
11. Oct '21 Charles Rosa Damon Jackson 2.56 1.5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
12. Oct '21 Mackenzie Dern Marina Alcalde Rodriguez 1.67 1.25 U Decision (5 rounds) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
13. Oct '21 Paid Pick Antonina Shevchenko Casey O'Neill 2.95 1.5 TKO, R2 (4:47) No MMA Bookmaker
14. Oct '21 Paid Pick Misha Cirkunov Krzysztof Jotko 2.26 1.5 Split Decision (3 rounds) Yes MMA Bookmaker
15. Oct '21 Paid Pick Joe Solecki Jared Gordon 1.81 0.5 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
16. Oct '21 Paid Pick Joe Solecki Jared Gordon 1.76 1.25 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
17. Sep '21 Paid Pick Tony Gravely Nathan Maness 1.61 4 TKO, R2 (2:10) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
18. Aug '21 Paid Pick Bobby Green Rafael Fiziev 3.75 0.75 U Decision (3 rounds) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
19. Jul '21 Paid Pick Ryan Benoit Zarrukh Adashev 1.80 3.25 U Decision (3 rounds) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
20. Jul '21 Paid Pick Dustin Stoltzfus Rodolfo Vieira 2.95 4 Sub, R3 (1:54) No View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

UFC MMA: Progress Chart
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