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MMA Handicapper Stats: The Poison Apple

The Poison Apple (benebox)

MMA MHandicapper - The Poison Apple

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MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats

Straight Fight Picks

Props

Parlays
Right 49 (46%) Right 32 (50%) Right 17 (40%) Right 0 (nan%)
Wrong 57 (54%) Wrong 32 (50%) Wrong 25 (60%) Wrong 0 (nan%)
Avg Odds 2.29 Avg Odds 1.94 Avg Odds 3.17 Avg Odds nan
Units Bet 597.9 Units Bet 523.0 Units Bet 74.9 Units Bet 0.0
Avg Bet 5.64 Avg Bet 8.17 Avg Bet 1.78 Avg Bet nan
Units Profit 1.09 Units Profit -6.21 Units Profit 7.30 Units Profit 0.00
ROI % 0% ROI % -1% ROI % 10% ROI % nan%
View Handicapper's Profile

The Poison Apple : Event by Event Predictions
The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date Event Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
21st May '22 UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira 39 -33.0 -85% -33.0 / 33 (-100%) 0.0 / 6 (0%)
9th Oct '21 UFC FN 5.13 -5.1 -100% -5.1 / 5.13 (-100%)
2nd Oct '21 UFC FN 49 -7.8 -16% 6.2 / 33 (19%) -14.0 / 16 (-88%)
25th Sep '21 UFC 266 11 -11.0 -100% -11.0 / 11 (-100%)
4th Sep '21 UFC FN 11 -11.0 -100% -11.0 / 11 (-100%)
28th Aug '21 UFC FN 22 -4.7 -21% -4.7 / 22 (-21%)
21st Aug '21 UFC FN 11 -11.0 -100% -11.0 / 11 (-100%)
7th Aug '21 UFC 265 22 -2.5 -12% -2.5 / 22 (-12%)
10th Jul '21 UFC 264 11 7.1 65% 7.1 / 11 (65%)
26th Jun '21 UFC FN 11 9.2 83% 9.2 / 11 (83%)
22nd May '21 UFC FN 11 7.3 67% 7.3 / 11 (67%)
24th Apr '21 UFC 261 11 19.8 180% 19.8 / 11 (180%)
17th Apr '21 UFC FN 11 -11.0 -100% -11.0 / 11 (-100%)
10th Apr '21 UFC FN 11 3.7 33% 3.7 / 11 (33%)
13th Feb '21 UFC 258 22 -5.6 -26% -5.6 / 22 (-26%)
16th Jan '21 UFC FN 11 14.3 130% 14.3 / 11 (130%)
19th Dec '20 UFC Vegas 17 55 22.8 42% 22.8 / 55 (42%)
29th Nov '20 UFC Vegas 15 22.2 -2.0 -9% -1.8 / 22 (-8%) -0.2 / 0.2 (-100%)
21st Nov '20 UFC 255 58 15.3 26% 7.8 / 44 (18%) 7.5 / 14 (53%)
12th Sep '20 UFC Fight Night 184 11 -11.0 -100% -11.0 / 11 (-100%)
29th Aug '20 KSW 54 11 9.5 86% 9.5 / 11 (86%)
22nd Aug '20 UFC Vegas 7 22 28.6 130% 28.6 / 22 (130%)
15th Aug '20 UFC 252 54 -18.6 -34% -18.6 / 54 (-34%)
8th Aug '20 UFC Vegas 6 22 -0.5 -2% -0.5 / 22 (-2%)
1st Aug '20 UFC Vegas 5 10 -0.7 -7% -0.7 / 10 (-7%)
25th Jul '20 UFC Fight Island 3 15 -8.3 -56% -12.1 / 14 (-86%) 3.7 / 1 (375%)
25th Jul '20 Bellator 242 1 2.0 200% 2.0 / 1 (200%)
18th Jul '20 UFC Fight Island 2 2 -2.0 -100% -2.0 / 2 (-100%)
15th Jul '20 UFC Fight Island 1 1.5 -1.5 -100% -1.0 / 1 (-100%) -0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)
11th Jul '20 UFC 251 4.23 1.1 25% -2.0 / 2 (-100%) 3.1 / 2.23 (137%)
11th Jul '20 KSW 53 4 -4.0 -100% -4.0 / 4 (-100%)
27th Jun '20 UFC Fight Night 175 1 1.0 100% 1.0 / 1 (100%)
20th Jun '20 UFC Fight Night 174 1.25 -1.3 -100% -1.0 / 1 (-100%) -0.3 / 0.25 (-100%)
13th Jun '20 UFC Fight Night 173 2 -2.0 -100% -2.0 / 2 (-100%)
6th Jun '20 UFC 250 3.3 2.5 76% 1.8 / 2 (91%) 0.7 / 1.3 (54%)
30th May '20 UFC Fight Night 172 1.1 2.7 243% 0.5 / 0.5 (103%) 2.2 / 0.6 (360%)
16th May '20 UFC Fight Night 171 5.3 2.1 40% 1.5 / 4.5 (33%) 0.6 / 0.8 (75%)
14th May '20 UFC Fight Night 170 2 -2.0 -100% -1.0 / 1 (-100%) -1.0 / 1 (-100%)
10th May '20 UFC 249 2.9 0.7 24% 1.6 / 2 (80%) -0.9 / 0.9 (-100%)
14th Mar '20 UFC Fight Night 169 2 -2.0 -100% -2.0 / 2 (-100%)
8th Mar '20 UFC 248 1 4.0 400% 4.0 / 1 (400%)
15th Feb '20 UFC Fight Night 167 0.5 -0.5 -100% -0.5 / 0.5 (-100%)
9th Feb '20 UFC 247 5.5 3.3 60% 3.3 / 5.5 (60%)
18th Jan '20 UFC 246 10 3.5 35% -1.0 / 1 (-100%) 4.5 / 9 (50%)


Winning Events: 20 (45%)
Losing Events: 24 (55%)

Average Staked Per Event: 13.63 units
Most Staked On One Event: 58.00 units
Best Event: 28.60 units
Worst Event: -33.00 units
Average Event: 0.02 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 4, Units: 43.40
Max Losing Streak: Events: 8, Units: -86.15

The Poison Apple : Year on Year Profit
Year Bet Won ROI Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%)		 Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%)		 Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%)		 Events
Won / Lost (%)		 Profit
Per Event
2022 39 -33.0 -85% -33.0 / 33 (-100%) 0.0 / 6 (0%) / 1 (0%) -33.00
2021 230.13 -8.4 -4% 10.7 / 209 (5%) -19.1 / 21.13 (-91%) 6 / 9 (40%) -0.56
2020 330.78 42.5 13% 16.1 / 281 (6%) 26.4 / 49.78 (53%) 14 / 14 (50%) 1.52

The Poison Apple : Yearly Straight Pick Stats
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The Poison Apple : Profit / Loss by Organization
Organization Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
UFC 583.91 -6.4 -1% -13.7 / 507 (-3%) 7.3 / 76.91 (9%)
Bellator 1 2.0 200% 2.0 / 1 (200%)
Other 15 5.5 36% 5.5 / 15 (36%)

The Poison Apple : Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 10 (16%) 6 60 % 110.00 -16.27 -1.63 -15%
Slight Favorites 25 (39%) 16 64 % 229.00 35.34 1.41 15%
Slight Underdogs 20 (31%) 9 45 % 142.00 13.72 0.69 10%
Big Underdogs 9 (14%) 1 11 % 42.00 -39.00 -4.33 -93%



Betting Stats By Card Position

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Main Event 15 (23%) 7 47 % 117.00 -14.92 -0.99 -13%
Co-Main Event 8 (13%) 5 63 % 59.50 31.59 3.95 53%
Position 3-5 13 (20%) 4 31 % 104.00 -43.17 -3.32 -42%
6+ (Undercard) 28 (44%) 16 57 % 242.50 20.30 0.73 8%

The Poison Apple : Profit by Weight Class
  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Heavyweight 6 (9%) 4 67 % 35.00 -7.98 -1.33 -23%
Light Heavy 5 (8%) 4 80 % 46.00 29.95 5.99 65%
Middleweight 10 (16%) 8 80 % 91.00 16.37 1.64 18%
Welterweight 13 (20%) 8 62 % 115.00 32.96 2.54 29%
Lightweight 11 (17%) 0 % 83.00 -83.00 -7.55 -100%
Featherweight 7 (11%) 1 14 % 30.00 -27.00 -3.86 -90%
Bantamweight 4 (6%) 2 50 % 44.00 -6.21 -1.55 -14%
               
Women's Fights 8 (13%) 5 63 % 79.00 38.70 4.84 49%
Bantamweight 2 (3%) 1 50 % 22.00 3.30 1.65 15%
Flyweight 2 (3%) 1 50 % 13.00 7.90 3.95 61%
Strawweight 4 (6%) 3 75 % 44.00 27.50 6.88 63%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
Big Favorites 0 (nan%) 0 nan %
Slight Favorites 0 (nan%) 0 nan %
Slight Underdogs 0 (nan%) 0 nan %
Big Underdogs 0 (nan%) 0 nan %
0 0 nan %

 

Props bets and props within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
>65% chance 0 (0%) 0 nan %
50-65% 6 (14%) 4 67 %
35-50% 12 (28%) 6 50 %
<35% chance 25 (58%) 7 28 %
43 17 40 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types
Prop Type Picks Correct % Correct Avg
Odds		 Longest
Odds		 Shortest
Odds		 1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 2 (5%) 2 100 % 1.98 2.00Pick was correct 1.95Pick was correct 2.0 (98%)
Goes to Decision 3 (7%) 3 100 % 2.16 2.50Pick was correct 1.75Pick was correct 3.6 (122%)
X Wins by KO 2 (5%) 1 50 % 1.89 2.38Pick was incorrect 1.57Pick was correct -0.4 (-21%)
X Wins by Sub 5 (12%) 1 20 % 4.61 8.50Pick was incorrect 2.00Pick was correct -2.0 (-40%)
X Wins by Decision 24 (56%) 8 33 % 3.71 13.00Pick was incorrect 1.86Pick was incorrect 7.2 (30%)
X Wins Inside Distance 1 (2%) 1 100 % 2.00 2.00Pick was correct 2.00Pick was correct 1.0 (100%)
X Wins in Round X 2 (5%) 0 0 % 3.64 5.00Pick was incorrect 2.86Pick was incorrect -2.0 (-100%)
Others 4 (9%) 1 25 % 3.05 9.00Pick was incorrect 1.87Pick was correct -2.1 (-53%)
43 17 40 % 3.22     7.3 (17%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail The Poison Apple 's bets
If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date Event Bet Won ROI Fee 1 unit = Start End
18th Jan UFC 246 10 3.5 35% $10.00 $1,000.00 $1,034.66
9th Feb UFC 247 5.5 3.3 60% $10.35 $1,034.66 $1,068.60
15th Feb UFC Fight Night 167 0.5 -0.5 -100% $10.69 $1,068.60 $1,063.25
8th Mar UFC 248 1 4.0 400% $10.63 $1,063.25 $1,105.78
14th Mar UFC Fight Night 169 2 -2.0 -100% $11.06 $1,105.78 $1,083.67
10th May UFC 249 2.9 0.7 24% $10.84 $1,083.67 $1,091.25
14th May UFC Fight Night 170 2 -2.0 -100% $10.91 $1,091.25 $1,069.43
16th May UFC Fight Night 171 5.3 2.1 40% $10.69 $1,069.43 $1,091.89
30th May UFC Fight Night 172 1.1 2.7 243% $10.92 $1,091.89 $1,121.09
6th Jun UFC 250 3.3 2.5 76% $11.21 $1,121.09 $1,149.35
13th Jun UFC Fight Night 173 2 -2.0 -100% $11.49 $1,149.35 $1,126.36
20th Jun UFC Fight Night 174 1.25 -1.3 -100% $11.26 $1,126.36 $1,112.28
27th Jun UFC Fight Night 175 1 1.0 100% $11.12 $1,112.28 $1,123.40
11th Jul KSW 53 4 -4.0 -100% $11.23 $1,123.40 $1,078.47
11th Jul UFC 251 4.23 1.1 25% $10.78 $1,078.47 $1,089.79
15th Jul UFC Fight Island 1 1.5 -1.5 -100% $10.90 $1,089.79 $1,073.44
18th Jul UFC Fight Island 2 2 -2.0 -100% $10.73 $1,073.44 $1,051.97
25th Jul Bellator 242 1 2.0 200% $10.52 $1,051.97 $1,073.01
25th Jul UFC Fight Island 3 15 -8.3 -56% $10.73 $1,073.01 $983.51
1st Aug UFC Vegas 5 10 -0.7 -7% $9.84 $983.51 $976.63
8th Aug UFC Vegas 6 22 -0.5 -2% $9.77 $976.63 $971.51
15th Aug UFC 252 54 -18.6 -34% $9.72 $971.51 $790.81
22nd Aug UFC Vegas 7 22 28.6 130% $7.91 $790.81 $1,016.98
29th Aug KSW 54 11 9.5 86% $5 $10.17 $1,016.98 $1,108.19
12th Sep UFC Fight Night 184 11 -11.0 -100% $11.08 $1,108.19 $986.29
21st Nov UFC 255 58 15.3 26% $9.86 $986.29 $1,136.96
29th Nov UFC Vegas 15 22.2 -2.0 -9% $11.37 $1,136.96 $1,113.84
19th Dec UFC Vegas 17 55 22.8 42% $11.14 $1,113.84 $1,368.17
16th Jan UFC FN 11 14.3 130% $13.68 $1,368.17 $1,563.82
13th Feb UFC 258 22 -5.6 -26% $15.64 $1,563.82 $1,475.71
10th Apr UFC FN 11 3.7 33% $14.76 $1,475.71 $1,529.82
17th Apr UFC FN 11 -11.0 -100% $15.30 $1,529.82 $1,361.54
24th Apr UFC 261 11 19.8 180% $13.62 $1,361.54 $1,631.12
22nd May UFC FN 11 7.3 67% $16.31 $1,631.12 $1,750.74
26th Jun UFC FN 11 9.2 83% $17.51 $1,750.74 $1,911.23
10th Jul UFC 264 11 7.1 65% $19.11 $1,911.23 $2,046.87
7th Aug UFC 265 22 -2.5 -12% $20.47 $2,046.87 $1,994.90
21st Aug UFC FN 11 -11.0 -100% $19.95 $1,994.90 $1,775.47
28th Aug UFC FN 22 -4.7 -21% $17.75 $1,775.47 $1,691.77
4th Sep UFC FN 11 -11.0 -100% $16.92 $1,691.77 $1,505.67
25th Sep UFC 266 11 -11.0 -100% $15.06 $1,505.67 $1,340.05
2nd Oct UFC FN 49 -7.8 -16% $13.40 $1,340.05 $1,235.97
9th Oct UFC FN 5.13 -5.1 -100% $12.36 $1,235.97 $1,172.56
21st May UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira 39 -33.0 -85% $11.73 $1,172.56 $785.62


ROI % from starting bank balance: -21.44% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

The Poison Apple : Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)
Last 20 Wins
  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result    
1. Oct '21 Thiago Santos Johnny Walker 1.67 11 U Decision (5 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
2. Oct '21 Stephanie Egger Shanna Young 1.90 11 TKO, R2 (2:22) MMA Bookmaker
3. Aug '21 Dustin Jacoby Darren Stewart 1.57 11 TKO, R1 (3:4) MMA Bookmaker
4. Aug '21 Jose Aldo Pedro Munhoz 1.77 11 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
5. Jul '21 Michel Pereira Niko Price 1.65 11 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
6. Jun '21 Kennedy Nzechukwu Danilo Marques 1.83 11 TKO, R3 (0:20) MMA Bookmaker
7. May '21 Jack Hermansson Edmen Shahbazyan 1.67 11 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
8. Apr '21 Rose Namajunas Weili Zhang 2.80 11 TKO, R1 (1:18) MMA Bookmaker
9. Apr '21 Marvin Vettori Kevin Holland 1.33 11 U Decision (5 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
10. Feb '21 Kelvin Gastelum Ian Heinisch 1.49 11 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
11. Jan '21 Joselyne Edwards Yanan Wu 2.30 11 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
12. Dec '20 Anthony Pettis Alex Morono 1.50 11 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
13. Dec '20 Michel Pereira Kalinn Williams 1.91 11 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
14. Dec '20 Jose Aldo Marlon Vera 1.67 11 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
15. Dec '20 Stephen Thompson Geoff Neal 2.00 11 U Decision (5 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
16. Nov '20 Anthony Smith Devin Clark 1.83 11 Sub, R1 (2:34) MMA Bookmaker
17. Nov '20 Joaquin Buckley Jordan Wright 1.40 11 TKO, R2 (0:18) MMA Bookmaker
18. Nov '20 Kyle Daukaus Dustin Stoltzfus 1.40 11 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
19. Nov '20 Alan Jouban Jared Gooden 1.91 11 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
20. Aug '20 Paid Pick Kacper Koziorzebski Adam Niedzwiedz 1.86 11 TKO, R2 (2:27) MMA Bookmaker



Last 20 Losses

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result Hedge?    
1. May '22 Holly Holm Ketlen Vieira 1.42 11 Split Decision (5 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
2. May '22 Eryk Anders Jun Yong Park 2.75 11 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
3. May '22 Felipe Colares Chase Hooper 1.61 11 TKO, R3 (3:0) No MMA Bookmaker
4. Oct '21 Devonte Smith Jamie Mullarkey 1.67 11 TKO, R2 (2:51) No MMA Bookmaker
5. Sep '21 Omar Morales Jonathan Pearce 1.67 11 Sub, R2 (3:31) No MMA Bookmaker
6. Sep '21 Darren Till Derek Brunson 1.67 11 Sub, R3 (2:13) No MMA Bookmaker
7. Aug '21 Edson Barboza Giga Chikadze 1.91 11 TKO, R3 (1:44) No MMA Bookmaker
8. Aug '21 Roosevelt Roberts Ignacio Bahamondes 1.74 11 TKO, R3 (4:55) No MMA Bookmaker
9. Aug '21 Michael Chiesa Vicente Luque 2.10 11 Sub, R1 (3:25) No MMA Bookmaker
10. Apr '21 Alex Munoz Luis Pena 2.31 11 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
11. Feb '21 Gilbert Burns Kamaru Usman 3.58 11 TKO, R3 (0:34) No MMA Bookmaker
12. Dec '20 Marlon Moraes Rob Font 1.67 11 TKO, R1 (3:47) No MMA Bookmaker
13. Nov '20 Kai Kamaka Jonathan Pearce 1.36 11 TKO, R2 (4:28) No MMA Bookmaker
14. Nov '20 Louis Cosce Sasha Palatnikov 1.33 11 TKO, R3 (2:47) No MMA Bookmaker
15. Sep '20 Khama Worthy Ottman Azaitar 2.05 11 TKO, R1 (1:33) No MMA Bookmaker
16. Aug '20 Ashley Yoder Livia Renata Souza 2.40 11 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
17. Aug '20 Jim Miller Vinc Pichel 2.20 11 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
18. Aug '20 John Dodson Merab Dvalishvili 3.10 11 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
19. Aug '20 Aleksei Oleinik Derrick Lewis 3.30 11 TKO, R2 (0:21) No MMA Bookmaker
20. Jul '20 Mike Grundy Movsar Evloev 2.90 2 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

The Poison Apple : Progress Chart
Chart

 
 
 
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