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Total MMA Handicappers: 6358
Profitable MMA Handicappers: 2347
 
 
 
   
 

MMA Handicapper Stats: Smurf Bets

Smurf Bets (SmurfBets)
Mixed Martial Arts Management - Smurf Bets

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MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats

Straight Fight Picks

Props

Parlays
Right 77 (51%) Right 65 (50%) Right 10 (48%) Right 2 (100%)
Wrong 75 (49%) Wrong 64 (50%) Wrong 11 (52%) Wrong 0 (0%)
Avg Odds 1.97 Avg Odds 1.95 Avg Odds 2.16 Avg Odds 1.58
Units Bet 702.5 Units Bet 619.5 Units Bet 77.0 Units Bet 6.0
Avg Bet 4.62 Avg Bet 4.80 Avg Bet 3.67 Avg Bet 3.00
Units Profit -2.16 Units Profit -17.14 Units Profit 11.51 Units Profit 3.46
ROI % -0% ROI % -3% ROI % 15% ROI % 58%
View Handicapper's Profile

Smurf Bets: Event by Event Predictions
The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date Event Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
13th Apr '24 UFC 300 27.5 -14.5 -53% -12.9 / 21.5 (-60%) -1.6 / 6 (-27%)
17th Feb '24 UFC 298 20 -2.4 -12% -2.4 / 20 (-12%)
19th Aug '23 UFC 292 26 -9.3 -36% -10.0 / 10 (-100%) -2.8 / 10 (-28%) 3.5 / 6 (58%)
29th Jul '23 UFC 291 45 9.3 21% 9.3 / 45 (21%)
4th Mar '23 UFC 285 6 9.6 160% 9.6 / 6 (160%)
12th Nov '22 UFC 281 45 -7.2 -16% -7.2 / 45 (-16%)
30th Jul '22 UFC 277 10 3.9 39% 3.9 / 10 (39%)
9th Jul '22 UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev 10 -2.4 -24% -2.4 / 10 (-24%)
2nd Jul '22 UFC 276 42.5 -0.1 -0% -0.1 / 42.5 (-0%)
30th May '20 UFC Fight Night 172 52.5 17.4 33% 17.4 / 52.5 (33%)
27th Jul '19 UFC 240 52 -7.4 -14% -5.3 / 37 (-14%) -2.1 / 15 (-14%)
6th Jul '19 UFC 239 65 7.0 11% -1.4 / 52 (-3%) 8.5 / 13 (65%)
2nd Mar '19 UFC 235 38.5 -3.4 -9% -10.2 / 25 (-41%) 6.9 / 13.5 (51%)
23rd Feb '19 UFC Fight Night 145 10 8.9 89% 4.5 / 5 (91%) 4.3 / 5 (87%)
17th Feb '19 UFC on ESPN 1 37.5 1.3 4% 1.3 / 37.5 (4%)
6th Oct '18 UFC 229 28.5 7.8 27% 7.8 / 28.5 (27%)
1st Jun '18 UFC Fight Night 131 51 -12.3 -24% -12.3 / 51 (-24%)
31st Dec '17 UFC 219 40 -1.2 -3% -3.1 / 35 (-9%) 1.8 / 5 (36%)
18th Nov '17 UFC Fight Night 121 Sydney 49.5 -21.7 -44% -18.2 / 40 (-46%) -3.5 / 9.5 (-37%)
11th Nov '17 UFC Fight Night 120 Virginia 30 13.8 46% 13.8 / 30 (46%)
4th Nov '17 UFC 217 16 0.7 5% 0.7 / 16 (5%)


Winning Events: 10 (48%)
Losing Events: 11 (52%)

Average Staked Per Event: 33.45 units
Most Staked On One Event: 65.00 units
Best Event: 17.38 units
Worst Event: -21.74 units
Average Event: -0.10 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 3, Units: 18.91
Max Losing Streak: Events: 3, Units: -35.26

Smurf Bets: Year on Year Profit
Year Bet Won ROI Straight
Won / Bet (ROI%)		 Prop
Won / Bet (ROI%)		 Parlay
Won / Bet (ROI%)		 Events
Won / Lost (%)		 Profit
Per Event
2024 47.5 -16.9 -36% -15.3 / 41.5 (-37%) / 2 (0%) -8.46
2023 77 9.6 12% 8.9 / 61 (15%) 3.5 / 6 (58%) 2 / 1 (67%) 3.20
2022 107.5 -5.8 -5% -5.8 / 107.5 (-5%) 1 / 3 (25%) -1.44
2020 52.5 17.4 33% 17.4 / 52.5 (33%) 1 / 0 (100%) 17.38
2019 203 6.6 3% -11.0 / 156.5 (-7%) 17.6 / 46.5 (38%) 3 / 2 (60%) 1.31
2018 79.5 -4.5 -6% -4.5 / 79.5 (-6%) 1 / 1 (50%) -2.26
2017 135.5 -8.5 -6% -6.8 / 121 (-6%) -1.7 / 14.5 (-12%) 2 / 2 (50%) -2.12

Smurf Bets: Yearly Straight Pick Stats
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Smurf Bets: Profit / Loss by Organization
Organization Bet Won ROI Straight Picks Props Parlays
UFC 702.5 -2.2 -0% -17.1 / 619.5 (-3%) 11.5 / 77 (15%) 3.5 / 6 (58%)

Smurf Bets: Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 38 (29%) 29 76 % 243.00 16.13 0.42 7%
Slight Favorites 31 (24%) 17 55 % 152.50 -7.97 -0.26 -5%
Slight Underdogs 32 (25%) 14 44 % 135.00 9.43 0.29 7%
Big Underdogs 29 (22%) 5 17 % 89.00 -34.73 -1.20 -39%



Betting Stats By Card Position

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Main Event 21 (16%) 13 62 % 118.50 17.54 0.84 15%
Co-Main Event 15 (12%) 8 53 % 81.50 -0.80 -0.05 -1%
Position 3-5 35 (27%) 19 54 % 148.50 15.79 0.45 11%
6+ (Undercard) 58 (45%) 24 41 % 266.00 -52.53 -0.91 -20%

Smurf Bets: Profit by Weight Class
  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Heavyweight 9 (7%) 6 67 % 34.00 32.95 3.66 97%
Light Heavy 11 (8%) 3 27 % 53.00 -20.82 -1.89 -39%
Middleweight 13 (10%) 5 38 % 53.50 -9.45 -0.73 -18%
Welterweight 19 (15%) 8 42 % 85.50 -16.12 -0.85 -19%
Lightweight 27 (21%) 15 56 % 135.00 -5.43 -0.20 -4%
Featherweight 12 (9%) 6 50 % 65.50 -6.75 -0.56 -10%
Bantamweight 14 (11%) 6 43 % 67.00 -20.45 -1.46 -31%
Flyweight 5 (4%) 2 40 % 30.00 -8.42 -1.68 -28%
               
Women's Fights 20 (15%) 14 70 % 96.00 37.35 1.87 39%
Featherweight 3 (2%) 3 100 % 26.00 7.25 2.42 28%
Bantamweight 3 (2%) 3 100 % 20.00 13.63 4.54 68%
Flyweight 5 (4%) 1 20 % 15.50 -8.15 -1.63 -53%
Strawweight 9 (7%) 7 78 % 34.50 24.62 2.74 71%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
Big Favorites 4 (100%) 4 100 %
Slight Favorites 0 (0%) 0 nan %
Slight Underdogs 0 (0%) 0 nan %
Big Underdogs 0 (0%) 0 nan %
4 4 100 %

 

Props bets and props within parlays

  Picks Correct % Correct
>65% chance 5 (24%) 5 100 %
50-65% 4 (19%) 2 50 %
35-50% 6 (29%) 3 50 %
<35% chance 6 (29%) 0 0 %
21 10 48 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types
Prop Type Picks Correct % Correct Avg
Odds		 Longest
Odds		 Shortest
Odds		 1U Bet (ROI %)
Over (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 8 (38%) 7 88 % 1.64 2.40Pick was incorrect 1.29Pick was correct 3.5 (43%)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds) 5 (24%) 1 20 % 2.82 4.30Pick was incorrect 1.83Pick was incorrect -2.2 (-43%)
Fight Starts Round X 1 (5%) 1 100 % 1.24 1.24Pick was correct 1.24Pick was incorrect 0.2 (24%)
X Wins by KO 1 (5%) 0 0 % 2.00 2.00Pick was incorrect 2.00Pick was incorrect -1.0 (-100%)
X Wins by Sub 3 (14%) 0 0 % 8.78 11.00Pick was incorrect 7.95Pick was incorrect -3.0 (-100%)
X Wins Inside Distance 1 (5%) 0 0 % 2.24 2.24Pick was incorrect 2.24Pick was incorrect -1.0 (-100%)
Others 2 (10%) 1 50 % 2.07 2.20Pick was correct 1.96Pick was incorrect 0.2 (10%)
21 10 48 % 2.16     -3.2 (-15%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail Smurf Bets's bets
If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date Event Bet Won ROI Fee 1 unit = Start End
4th Nov UFC 217 16 0.7 5% $10.00 $1,000.00 $1,007.32
11th Nov UFC Fight Night 120 Virginia 30 13.8 46% $10.07 $1,007.32 $1,145.88
18th Nov UFC Fight Night 121 Sydney 49.5 -21.7 -44% $11.46 $1,145.88 $896.78
31st Dec UFC 219 40 -1.2 -3% $8.97 $896.78 $885.69
1st Jun UFC Fight Night 131 51 -12.3 -24% $8.86 $885.69 $776.85
6th Oct UFC 229 28.5 7.8 27% $7.77 $776.85 $837.18
17th Feb UFC on ESPN 1 37.5 1.3 4% $8.37 $837.18 $848.48
23rd Feb UFC Fight Night 145 10 8.9 89% $8.48 $848.48 $923.94
2nd Mar UFC 235 38.5 -3.4 -9% $9.24 $923.94 $892.95
6th Jul UFC 239 65 7.0 11% $8.93 $892.95 $955.63
27th Jul UFC 240 52 -7.4 -14% $9.56 $955.63 $885.32
30th May UFC Fight Night 172 52.5 17.4 33% $8.85 $885.32 $1,039.16
2nd Jul UFC 276 42.5 -0.1 -0% $10.39 $1,039.16 $1,038.37
9th Jul UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev 10 -2.4 -24% $10.38 $1,038.37 $1,013.08
30th Jul UFC 277 10 3.9 39% $10.13 $1,013.08 $1,052.81
12th Nov UFC 281 45 -7.2 -16% $10.53 $1,052.81 $977.30
4th Mar UFC 285 6 9.6 160% $9.77 $977.30 $1,070.89
29th Jul UFC 291 45 9.3 21% $10.71 $1,070.89 $1,170.88
19th Aug UFC 292 26 -9.3 -36% $11.71 $1,170.88 $1,061.83
17th Feb UFC 298 20 -2.4 -12% $10.62 $1,061.83 $1,036.07
13th Apr UFC 300 27.5 -14.5 -53% $10.36 $1,036.07 $885.94


ROI % from starting bank balance: -11.41% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

Smurf Bets: Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)
Last 20 Wins
  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result    
1. Apr '24 Max Holloway Justin Gaethje 2.43 2 TKO, R5 (4:59) MMA Bookmaker
2. Apr '24 Arman Tsarukyan Charles Oliveira 1.50 2.5 Split Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
3. Feb '24 Robert Whittaker Paulo Costa 1.43 5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
4. Feb '24 Ilia Topuria Alex Volkanovski 2.08 5 TKO, R2 (3:32) MMA Bookmaker
5. Jul '23 Roman Kopylov Claudio Ribeiro 1.48 5 TKO, R2 (0:33) MMA Bookmaker
6. Jul '23 Jake Matthews Darrius Flowers 1.40 5 Sub, R2 (2:37) MMA Bookmaker
7. Jul '23 Carlos Vergara Vinicius Salvador 1.59 5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
8. Jul '23 Gabriel Bonfim Trevin Giles 1.30 5 Sub, R1 (1:13) MMA Bookmaker
9. Jul '23 Derrick Lewis Marcos Rogerio de Lima 2.80 5 TKO, R1 (0:33) MMA Bookmaker
10. Jul '23 Justin Gaethje Dustin Poirier 2.30 5 TKO, R2 (1:0) MMA Bookmaker
11. Mar '23 Alexa Grasso Valentina Shevchenko 7.35 1 Sub, R4 (4:34) MMA Bookmaker
12. Mar '23 Jon Jones Ciryl Gane 1.65 5 Sub, R1 (2:4) MMA Bookmaker
13. Nov '22 Matt Frevola Ottman Azaitar 2.35 2.5 TKO, R1 (2:30) MMA Bookmaker
14. Nov '22 Andre Petroski Wellington Turman 1.53 5 U Decision (3 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
15. Nov '22 Renato Moicano Brad Riddell 1.81 5 Sub, R1 (3:20) MMA Bookmaker
16. Nov '22 Daniel Hooker Claudio Puelles 1.67 5 TKO, R2 (4:6) MMA Bookmaker
17. Nov '22 Chris Gutierrez Frankie Edgar 1.38 5 TKO, R1 (2:1) MMA Bookmaker
18. Jul '22 Amanda Nunes Julianna Pena 1.39 10 U Decision (5 rounds) MMA Bookmaker
19. Jul '22 Rafael Fiziev Rafael dos Anjos 1.51 5 TKO, R5 (0:18) MMA Bookmaker
20. Jul '22 Israel Adesanya Jared Cannonier 1.22 5 U Decision (5 rounds) MMA Bookmaker



Last 20 Losses

  Date Straight Pick Opponent Odds Bet Result Hedge?    
1. Apr '24 Jamahal Hill Alex Pereira 2.20 2.5 TKO, R1 (3:14) No MMA Bookmaker
2. Apr '24 Aleksandar Rakic Jiri Prochazka 1.92 2.5 TKO, R2 (3:17) No MMA Bookmaker
3. Apr '24 Calvin Kattar Aljamain Sterling 2.45 2.5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
4. Apr '24 Jalin Turner Renato Moicano 1.43 5 TKO, R2 (4:11) No MMA Bookmaker
5. Apr '24 Jim Miller Bobby Green 2.55 1.5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
6. Apr '24 Marina Alcalde Rodriguez Jessica Andrade 2.24 1.5 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
7. Apr '24 Cody Garbrandt Deiveson Figueiredo 3.70 1.5 Sub, R2 (4:2) No MMA Bookmaker
8. Feb '24 Junior Tafa Marcos Rogerio de Lima 3.00 2.5 TKO, R2 (1:14) No MMA Bookmaker
9. Feb '24 Roman Kopylov Anthony Hernandez 2.80 2.5 Sub, R2 (3:23) No MMA Bookmaker
10. Feb '24 Henry Cejudo Merab Dvalishvili 3.20 2.5 U Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
11. Feb '24 Geoff Neal Ian Garry 2.95 2.5 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
12. Aug '23 Aljamain Sterling Sean O'Malley 1.39 5 TKO, R2 (0:51) No MMA Bookmaker
13. Aug '23 Aljamain Sterling Sean O'Malley 1.40 5 TKO, R2 (0:51) No MMA Bookmaker
14. Jul '23 Michael Chiesa Kevin Holland 2.30 5 Sub, R1 (2:39) No MMA Bookmaker
15. Jul '23 Tony Ferguson Bobby Green 4.00 5 Sub, R3 (4:54) No MMA Bookmaker
16. Jul '23 Jan Blachowicz Alex Pereira 1.91 5 Split Decision (3 rounds) No MMA Bookmaker
17. Nov '22 Seung Woo Choi Mike Trizano 1.57 5 TKO, R1 (4:51) No MMA Bookmaker
18. Nov '22 Molly McCann Erin Blanchfield 4.10 2.5 Sub, R1 (3:37) No MMA Bookmaker
19. Nov '22 Dominick Reyes Ryan Spann 1.48 2.5 TKO, R1 (1:20) No MMA Bookmaker
20. Nov '22 Michael Chandler Dustin Poirier 2.85 5 Sub, R3 (2:0) No MMA Bookmaker

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

Smurf Bets: Progress Chart
Chart

 
 
 
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