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MMA Handicapper Stats: MMA Merlin

MMA Merlin (MMAMERLIN)

MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats		Straight Fight Picks		Props		Parlays
Right	28 (41%)	Right	23 (47%)	Right	3 (100%)	Right	2 (13%)
Wrong	40 (59%)	Wrong	26 (53%)	Wrong	0 (0%)	Wrong	14 (88%)
Avg Odds	2.33	Avg Odds	1.96	Avg Odds	2.41	Avg Odds	5.53
Units Bet	393.8	Units Bet	302.0	Units Bet	19.0	Units Bet	72.8
Avg Bet	5.79	Avg Bet	6.16	Avg Bet	6.33	Avg Bet	4.55
Units Profit	-59.61	Units Profit	-44.60	Units Profit	27.17	Units Profit	-42.18
ROI %	-15%	ROI %	-15%	ROI %	143%	ROI %	-58%

MMA Merlin : Event by Event Predictions

The straight picks, parlays and props sections display Winnings / Bets (ROI%)

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
17th Dec '16	UFC on Fox 22	99.1	-81.7	-82%	-59.6 / 77 (-77%)		-22.1 / 22.1 (-100%)
10th Dec '16	UFC 206	76.5	31.6	41%	3.3 / 50 (7%)	27.2 / 19 (143%)	1.1 / 7.5 (15%)
3rd Dec '16	UFC - The Ultimate Fighter 24 Finale	67	-25.9	-39%	-7.9 / 49 (-16%)		-18.0 / 18 (-100%)
26th Nov '16	UFC Fight Night 101	46	37.2	81%	20.2 / 41 (49%)		17.0 / 5 (340%)
19th Nov '16	UFC Fight Night 100 Bader vs. Nogueira 2	62.1	-12.4	-20%	-2.3 / 52 (-4%)		-10.1 / 10.1 (-100%)
19th Nov '16	UFC Fight Night 99 - Mousasi vs. Hall	17.1	-7.9	-46%	-7.8 / 17 (-46%)		-0.1 / 0.1 (-100%)
12th Nov '16	UFC 205 - New York City	26	-0.6	-2%	9.4 / 16 (59%)		-10.0 / 10 (-100%)

Winning Events: 2 (29%)
Losing Events: 5 (71%)

Average Staked Per Event: 56.26 units
Most Staked On One Event: 99.10 units
Best Event: 37.25 units
Worst Event: -81.72 units
Average Event: -8.52 units

Max Win Streak: Events: 1, Units: 37.25
Max Losing Streak: Events: 3, Units: -81.72

MMA Merlin : Year on Year Profit

Year	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Won / Bet (ROI%)	Prop Won / Bet (ROI%)	Parlay Won / Bet (ROI%)	Events Won / Lost (%)	Profit Per Event
2016	393.8	-59.6	-15%	-44.6 / 302 (-15%)	27.2 / 19 (143%)	-42.2 / 72.8 (-58%)	2 / 5 (29%)	-8.52

MMA Merlin : Yearly Straight Pick Stats

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MMA Merlin : Profit / Loss by Organization

Organization	Bet	Won	ROI	Straight Picks	Props	Parlays
UFC	393.8	-59.6	-15%	-44.6 / 302 (-15%)	27.2 / 19 (143%)	-42.2 / 72.8 (-58%)

MMA Merlin : Straight Pick Stats

Big favourite means >65% win chance according to bookies. Big underdog is <35% chance.

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Big Favorites	6 (12%)	5	83 %	16.00	2.26	0.38	14%
Slight Favorites	15 (31%)	6	40 %	111.00	-38.63	-2.58	-35%
Slight Underdogs	23 (47%)	11	48 %	148.00	15.76	0.69	11%
Big Underdogs	5 (10%)	1	20 %	27.00	-24.00	-4.80	-89%

Betting Stats By Card Position

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Main Event	3 (6%)	2	67 %	14.00	-8.39	-2.80	-60%
Co-Main Event	5 (10%)	3	60 %	40.00	-6.08	-1.22	-15%
Position 3-5	10 (20%)	4	40 %	53.00	-31.20	-3.12	-59%
6+ (Undercard)	31 (63%)	14	45 %	195.00	1.07	0.03	1%

MMA Merlin : Profit by Weight Class

	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Units Bet	Units Profit	Profit per Pick	ROI
Heavyweight	3 (6%)		0 %	8.00	-8.00	-2.67	-100%
Light Heavy	4 (8%)	2	50 %	32.00	-5.48	-1.37	-17%
Middleweight	6 (12%)	4	67 %	22.00	18.26	3.04	83%
Welterweight	7 (14%)	1	14 %	59.00	-41.75	-5.96	-71%
Lightweight	9 (18%)	6	67 %	50.00	-4.72	-0.52	-9%
Featherweight	4 (8%)	3	75 %	25.00	3.23	0.81	13%
Bantamweight	5 (10%)	4	80 %	39.00	34.48	6.90	88%
Flyweight	1 (2%)		0 %	10.00	-10.00	-10.00	-100%

Women's Fights	10 (20%)	3	30 %	57.00	-30.62	-3.06	-54%
Bantamweight	4 (8%)	1	25 %	13.00	-8.00	-2.00	-62%
Strawweight	6 (12%)	2	33 %	44.00	-22.62	-3.77	-51%

Props & Parlay Section Stats (Individual sections of this handicapper's parlays)

Straight picks within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
Big Favorites	2 (5%)	2	100 %
Slight Favorites	10 (24%)	6	60 %
Slight Underdogs	23 (56%)	8	35 %
Big Underdogs	6 (15%)	0	0 %
	41	16	39 %

Props bets and props within parlays

	Picks	Correct	% Correct
>65% chance	0 (0%)	0	nan %
50-65%	1 (33%)	1	100 %
35-50%	1 (33%)	1	100 %
<35% chance	1 (33%)	1	100 %
	3	3	100 %

Prop Bets and Props within Parlays: Bet Types

Prop Type	Picks	Correct	% Correct	Avg Odds	Longest Odds	Shortest Odds	1U Bet (ROI %)
Under (e.g. 1.5 / 2.5 rnds)	1 (33%)	1	100 %	2.00	2.00	2.00	1.0 (100%)
Does not go to Decision	1 (33%)	1	100 %	1.83	1.83	1.83	0.8 (83%)
X Wins in Round X	1 (33%)	1	100 %	5.00	5.00	5.00	4.0 (400%)
	3	3	100 %	2.41			5.8 (194%)

* 1U Bet (ROI %): Many of the picks will have been part of a parlay, however, as a rough guide to value / profitability, this figure supposes that the handicapper put a 1U bet on each of the picks individually, showing the profit / loss they would have made and the ROI %.

Tail MMA Merlin 's bets

If you had tailed this handicapper's bets since they started logging their picks with us, it would have affected your betting bank balance as follows...

This is more accurate than simply X units total profit. Under that more basic system, 1 unit is equal to the same amount of theoretical dollars, whether it was the last event or 10 events ago. However, if a handicapper has 10 events profit in a row, their betting bank balance will be significantly larger for the 10th event and 1 unit will equal a LOT more than it did 10 events ago.

Date	Event	Bet	Won	ROI	Fee	1 unit =	Start	End
12th Nov	UFC 205 - New York City	26	-0.6	-2%		$10.00	$1,000.00	$994.49
19th Nov	UFC Fight Night 99 - Mousasi vs. Hall	17.1	-7.9	-46%		$9.94	$994.49	$915.74
19th Nov	UFC Fight Night 100 Bader vs. Nogueira 2	62.1	-12.4	-20%	$10	$9.16	$915.74	$792.19
26th Nov	UFC Fight Night 101	46	37.2	81%		$7.92	$792.19	$1,087.25
3rd Dec	UFC - The Ultimate Fighter 24 Finale	67	-25.9	-39%		$10.87	$1,087.25	$805.65
10th Dec	UFC 206	76.5	31.6	41%		$8.06	$805.65	$1,060.49
17th Dec	UFC on Fox 22	99.1	-81.7	-82%		$10.60	$1,060.49	$193.86

ROI % from starting bank balance: -80.61% (including fees)
*Note - we don't store historical fee amounts, so we assume the fees are the same as the handicapper charges now.

MMA Merlin : Last 20 Wins / Losses (Straight Picks)

Last 20 Wins

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result
1.	Dec '16	Eddie Wineland	Takeya Mizugaki	1.58	11	TKO, R1 (3:4)
2.	Dec '16	Matthew Lopez	Mitch Gagnon	2.06	11	U Decision (3 rounds)
3.	Dec '16	Lando Vannata	John Makdessi	1.61	10	TKO, R1 (1:40)
4.	Dec '16	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	Drew Dober	1.62	9	Sub, R2 (2:57)
5.	Dec '16	Devin Clark	Josh Stansbury	2.02	11	U Decision (3 rounds)
6.	Dec '16	Jamie Moyle	Kailin Curran	2.36	8	U Decision (3 rounds)
7.	Nov '16	Marlon Vera	Ning Guangyou	2.00	11	U Decision (3 rounds)
8.	Nov '16	Jonathan Meunier	Richard Walsh	1.72	10	U Decision (3 rounds)
9.	Nov '16	Robert Whittaker	Derek Brunson	2.20	10	TKO, R1 (4:7)
10.	Nov '16	Darren Stewart	Francimar Barroso	2.15	2	TKO, R1 (1:34)
11.	Nov '16	Thomas Almeida	Albert Morales	1.35	6	TKO, R2 (1:37)
12.	Nov '16	Krzysztof Jotko	Thales Leites	2.26	5	U Decision (3 rounds)
13.	Nov '16	Pedro Munhoz	Justin Scoggins	2.60	10	Sub, R2 (1:55)
14.	Nov '16	Artem Lobov	Teruto Ishihara	3.00	1	U Decision (3 rounds)
15.	Nov '16	Stevie Ray	Ross Pearson	1.91	2	Split Decision (3 rounds)
16.	Nov '16	Gegard Mousasi	Urijah Hall	1.18	2	TKO, R1 (4:31)
17.	Nov '16	Khabib Nurmagomedov	Michael Johnson	1.36	2	Sub, R3 (2:31)
18.	Nov '16	Raquel Pennington	Miesha Tate	2.50	2	U Decision (3 rounds)
19.	Nov '16	Frankie Edgar	Jeremy Stephens	1.29	2	U Decision (3 rounds)
20.	Nov '16	Tim Boetsch	Rafael Natal	2.30	2	TKO, R1 (3:22)

Last 20 Losses

	Date	Straight Pick	Opponent	Odds	Bet	Result	Hedge?
1.	Dec '16	Bojan Velickovic	Sultan Aliev	1.67	11	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
2.	Dec '16	Scott Holtzman	Josh Emmett	2.55	11	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
3.	Dec '16	Cole Miller	Mizuto Hirota	2.00	11	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
4.	Dec '16	Mike Perry	Alan Jouban	1.80	11	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
5.	Dec '16	Sage Northcutt	Mickey Gall	2.35	11	Sub, R2 (1:40)	No
6.	Dec '16	Paige VanZant	Michelle Waterson	2.00	11	Sub, R1 (3:21)	No
7.	Dec '16	Nikita Krylov	Misha Cirkunov	1.88	9	Sub, R1 (4:38)	No
8.	Dec '16	Valerie Letourneau	Viviane Pereira	1.57	11	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
9.	Dec '16	Alexis Davis	Sara McMann	2.67	8	Sub, R2 (2:52)	No
10.	Dec '16	Gray Maynard	Ryan Hall	1.88	11	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
11.	Dec '16	Jake Ellenberger	Jorge Masvidal	2.80	11	TKO, R1 (4:5)	No
12.	Nov '16	Geane Herrera	Ben Nguyen	1.72	10	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
13.	Nov '16	Christian Colombo	Luis Henrique	3.20	5	Sub, R3 (2:12)	No
14.	Nov '16	Zak Ottow	Sergio Moraes	2.85	4	Split Decision (3 rounds)	No
15.	Nov '16	Cortney Casey	Claudia Gadelha	3.98	10	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
16.	Nov '16	Rogerio Nogueira	Ryan Bader	3.65	10	TKO, R3 (3:51)	No
17.	Nov '16	Kwan Ho Kwak	Brett Johns	2.88	1	U Decision (3 rounds)	No
18.	Nov '16	Milana Dudieva	Marion Reneau	2.80	2	TKO, R3 (3:3)	No
19.	Nov '16	Alexander Yakovlev	Zak Cummings	2.50	1	Sub, R2 (4:2)	No
20.	Nov '16	Mark Godbeer	Justin Ledet	2.25	1	Sub, R1 (2:16)	No

* Hedge indicates that this handicapper also had a WINNING bet on the opponent. For example, they may have bet A to win straight up but with a hedge on the other fighter winning by decision.

MMA Merlin : Progress Chart

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