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Event Predictions

UFC 195 - Lawler vs Condit

Las Vegas
2016-01-02 23:00:00

Favourite wins: 7
Underdog wins: 4
$10 on all favourites nets: $-2.70
$10 on all underdogs nets: $3.20

Unit Betting
Units Bet: 1.5. Profit: 0.77
Total Unit Profit: 0.77

$10 Average Betting System
$10 on all our picks (raw): $-4.40 (7 right, 5 wrong)
$10 on all our picks (weighted): $11.50 (8 right, 4 wrong)
Weighted betting profit: $30.54 (8 right, 4 wrong)
Value betting profit: $63.25 (8 right, 4 wrong)

Average Bet Rating: Low
Average Value Bet Rating: Fair

Key  
Bookies Odds Bookmaker Odds
Raw Picks Raw Picks
Raw Picks Crowd Prediction
Raw Picks Weighted Crowd Prediction
Raw Picks Your Prediction
Raw Picks Your Confidence
Raw Picks Bookmaker Favourite
Raw Picks Crowd Weighted Pick
Raw Picks Your Pick
Raw Picks Value Pick

Crowd Weighted PickValue Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Robbie Lawler vs Carlos Condit Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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51%
   
51%
59 (74)%
 
21 (26)%
75%
 
25%
53%
 
47%
WON
Pick Rating Low #7
LOST
@1.95 Suggested Bet: 0.25 units on Robbie Lawler: Returned 0.24 Units   @1.95
$10 Bet Profit: $9.5 #7 Ranked $9.23 Bet Profit: $8.77 #10 Ranked $4.62 Value Bet Profit: $4.39

Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Stipe Miocic vs Andrei Arlovski Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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67%
   
33%
45 (70)%
 
19 (30)%
69%
 
31%
62%
 
38%
Value Pick
WON
Pick Rating Poor #10 Fair Anti-Pick
LOST
@1.49 No Unit Bet Suggested (No Value)   @3.00
$10 Bet Profit: $4.9 #10 Ranked $4.62 Bet Profit: $2.26 #4 Ranked $13.85 Value Bet Profit: $-13.85

Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Lorenz Larkin vs Albert Tumenov Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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30%
   
70%
12 (32)%
 
26 (68)%
30%
 
70%
20%
 
80%
Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
LOST
#2 Fair Pick Rating
WON
@3.30 Suggested Bet: 1.25 units on Albert Tumenov: Returned 0.54 Units   @1.43
$10 Bet Profit: $4.3 #2 Ranked $16.92 Bet Profit: $7.28 #5 Ranked $12.31 Value Bet Profit: $5.29

Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Brian Ortega vs Diego Brandao Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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63%
   
37%
14 (44)%
 
18 (56)%
44%
 
56%
64%
 
36%
WON
Pick Rating Low #8
LOST
@1.59 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @2.70
$10 Bet Profit: $5.9 #8 Ranked $7.69 Bet Profit: $4.54 #11 Ranked $3.08 Value Bet Profit: $1.82

Crowd Weighted PickValue Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Abel Trujillo vs Tony Sims Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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43%
   
57%
11 (65)%
 
6 (35)%
67%
 
33%
78%
 
22%
Bookies Favourite
WON
Pick Rating Extremely Good #1
LOST
@2.30 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @1.75
$10 Bet Profit: $13 #1 Ranked $18.46 Bet Profit: $24 #1 Ranked $18.46 Value Bet Profit: $24

Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Michael McDonald vs Masanori Kanehara Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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83%
   
17%
21 (95)%
 
1 (5)%
97%
 
3%
90%
 
10%
WON
Pick Rating Low #4
LOST
@1.20 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @5.81
$10 Bet Profit: $2 #4 Ranked $13.85 Bet Profit: $2.77 #7 Ranked $9.23 Value Bet Profit: $1.85

Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Alex Morono vs Kyle Noke Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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27%
   
75%
3 (15)%
 
17 (85)%
17%
 
83%
21%
 
79%
Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
WON
#6 Low Pick Rating
LOST
@3.75 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @1.33
$10 Bet Profit: $-10 #6 Ranked $10.77 Bet Profit: $-10.77 #9 Ranked $6.15 Value Bet Profit: $-6.15

Value Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Nina Ansaroff vs Justine Kish Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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33%
   
68%
5 (42)%
 
7 (58)%
40%
 
60%
33%
 
67%
Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted Pick
LOST
Anti-Pick Low #9 Poor Pick Rating
WON
@3.05 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @1.48
$10 Bet Profit: $4.8 #9 Ranked $6.15 Bet Profit: $2.95 #12 Ranked $1.54 Value Bet Profit: $-1.54

Value Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Drew Dober vs Scott Holtzman Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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37%
   
63%
6 (40)%
 
9 (60)%
39%
 
61%
48%
 
52%
Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted Pick
WON
Anti-Pick Moderate #12 Very Poor Pick Rating
LOST
@2.67 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @1.59
$10 Bet Profit: $-10 #12 Ranked $1.54 Bet Profit: $-1.54 #3 Ranked $15.38 Value Bet Profit: $25.68

Value Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Dustin Poirier vs Joseph Duffy Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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38%
   
59%
22 (48)%
 
24 (52)%
47%
 
53%
50%
 
50%
Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted Pick
WON
Anti-Pick Moderate #11 Very Poor Pick Rating
LOST
@2.60 No Unit Bet Suggested (No Value)   @1.69
$10 Bet Profit: $-10 #11 Ranked $3.08 Bet Profit: $-3.08 #2 Ranked $16.92 Value Bet Profit: $27.07

Crowd Weighted PickValue Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Joe Soto vs Michinori Tanaka Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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47%
   
55%
12 (71)%
 
5 (29)%
76%
 
24%
53%
 
47%
Bookies Favourite
LOST
Pick Rating Fair #3
WON
@2.15 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @1.83
$10 Bet Profit: $-10 #3 Ranked $15.38 Bet Profit: $-15.38 #6 Ranked $10.77 Value Bet Profit: $-10.77

Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Edgar Garcia vs Sheldon Westcott Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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41%
   
58%
8 (44)%
 
10 (56)%
51%
 
49%
37%
 
63%
Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
LOST
#5 Low Pick Rating
WON
@2.45 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @1.71
$10 Bet Profit: $7.1 #5 Ranked $12.31 Bet Profit: $8.74 #8 Ranked $7.69 Value Bet Profit: $5.46


Chart

 

Unit Betting

$ bet per unit:

  % Chance Units
Bet
Potential
Win
Units
Profit
Cash
Bet
Cash
Profit
ROI
Bet on Albert Tumenov vs Lorenz Larkin (@1.43) 80%   1.25   0.54   0.54   $0.00   $0.00 43%
Bet on Robbie Lawler vs Carlos Condit (@1.95) 53%   0.25   0.24   0.24   $0.00   $0.00 95%
Average Odds: @1.65   1.5 0.77 0.77   $0.00 $0.00 51.67%

Bet Every Fight: Bet Calculator

Total Bet Amount:

 

Weighted Betting

Based on a total bet of $120.00 over 12 fights
  Pick Opponent Bet Potential
Profit (ROI)
Risk Actual
Result (ROI)
#1 Abel Trujillo Tony Sims $18.46 $24.00
 
$24.00
#2 Albert Tumenov Lorenz Larkin $16.92 $7.28
 
$7.28
#3 Joe Soto Michinori Tanaka $15.38 $17.69
 
-$15.38
#4 Michael McDonald Masanori Kanehara $13.85 $2.77
 
$2.77
#5 Sheldon Westcott Edgar Garcia $12.31 $8.74
 
$8.74
#6 Kyle Noke Alex Morono $10.77 $3.55
 
-$10.77
#7 Robbie Lawler Carlos Condit $9.23 $8.77
 
$8.77
#8 Brian Ortega Diego Brandao $7.69 $4.54
 
$4.54
#9 Justine Kish Nina Ansaroff $6.15 $2.95
 
$2.95
#10 Stipe Miocic Andrei Arlovski $4.62 $2.26
 
$2.26
#11 Joseph Duffy Dustin Poirier $3.08 $2.13
 
-$3.08
#12 Scott Holtzman Drew Dober $1.54 $0.91
 
-$1.54
      $120.00 $85.58 (71%)   $30.54 (25%)

Value Betting

  Pick Opponent Bet Potential
Profit (ROI)
Risk Actual
Result (ROI)
#1 Abel Trujillo Tony Sims $18.46 $24.00
 
$24.00
#2 Dustin Poirier Joseph Duffy $16.92 $27.07
 
$27.07
#3 Drew Dober Scott Holtzman $15.38 $25.68
 
$25.68
#4 Andrei Arlovski Stipe Miocic $13.85 $27.70
 
-$13.85
#5 Albert Tumenov Lorenz Larkin $12.31 $5.29
 
$5.29
#6 Joe Soto Michinori Tanaka $10.77 $12.39
 
-$10.77
#7 Michael McDonald Masanori Kanehara $9.23 $1.85
 
$1.85
#8 Sheldon Westcott Edgar Garcia $7.69 $5.46
 
$5.46
#9 Kyle Noke Alex Morono $6.15 $2.03
 
-$6.15
#10 Robbie Lawler Carlos Condit $4.62 $4.39
 
$4.39
#11 Brian Ortega Diego Brandao $3.08 $1.82
 
$1.82
#12 Nina Ansaroff Justine Kish $1.54 $3.16
 
-$1.54
      $120.00 $140.83 (117%)   $63.25 (53%)
 
 
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