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Event Predictions

UFC 189 - McGregor vs. Mendes

Las Vegas
2015-07-11 19:00:00

Favourite wins: 6
Underdog wins: 5
$10 on all favourites nets: $-25.00
$10 on all underdogs nets: $20.70

Unit Betting
Units Bet: 24.25. Profit: 7.11
Total Unit Profit: 7.11

$10 Average Betting System
$10 on all our picks (raw): $5.40 (7 right, 4 wrong)
$10 on all our picks (weighted): $-0.60 (6 right, 5 wrong)
Weighted betting profit: $-2.16 (6 right, 5 wrong)
Value betting profit: $-28.00 (4 right, 7 wrong)

Average Bet Rating: Good
Average Value Bet Rating: Good

Key  
Bookies Odds Bookmaker Odds
Raw Picks Raw Picks
Raw Picks Crowd Prediction
Raw Picks Weighted Crowd Prediction
Raw Picks Your Prediction
Raw Picks Your Confidence
Raw Picks Bookmaker Favourite
Raw Picks Crowd Weighted Pick
Raw Picks Your Pick
Raw Picks Value Pick

Bookies Favourite
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Conor McGregor vs Chad Mendes Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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64%
   
37%
52 (49)%
 
55 (51)%
52%
 
48%
47%
 
53%
Crowd Weighted PickValue Pick
WON
#4 Good Pick Rating
LOST
@1.56 Suggested Bet: 4 units on Chad Mendes: Returned -4.00 Units   @2.70
$10 Bet Profit: $-10 #4 Ranked $13.33 Bet Profit: $-13.33 #5 Ranked $11.67 Value Bet Profit: $-11.67

Crowd Weighted PickValue Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Robbie Lawler vs Rory MacDonald Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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38%
   
62%
67 (50)%
 
68 (50)%
50%
 
50%
50%
 
50%
Bookies Favourite
WON
Pick Rating Moderate #5
LOST
@2.65 Suggested Bet: 3.25 units on Robbie Lawler: Returned 5.36 Units   @1.62
$10 Bet Profit: $16.5 #5 Ranked $11.67 Bet Profit: $19.26 #6 Ranked $10 Value Bet Profit: $16.5

Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Dennis Bermudez vs Jeremy Stephens Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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67%
   
34%
81 (85)%
 
14 (15)%
87%
 
13%
83%
 
17%
LOST
Pick Rating Moderate #7
WON
@1.50 Suggested Bet: 2.25 units on Dennis Bermudez: Returned -2.25 Units   @2.97
$10 Bet Profit: $-10 #7 Ranked $8.33 Bet Profit: $-8.33 #9 Ranked $5 Value Bet Profit: $-5

Crowd Weighted PickValue Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Gunnar Nelson vs Brandon Thatch Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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38%
   
63%
53 (60)%
 
36 (40)%
62%
 
38%
67%
 
33%
Bookies Favourite
WON
Pick Rating Very Good #2
LOST
@2.60 Suggested Bet: 7.25 units on Gunnar Nelson: Returned 11.60 Units   @1.59
$10 Bet Profit: $16 #2 Ranked $16.67 Bet Profit: $26.67 #3 Ranked $15 Value Bet Profit: $24

Value Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Brad Pickett vs Thomas Almeida Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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14%
   
88%
8 (15)%
 
47 (85)%
14%
 
86%
25%
 
75%
Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted Pick
LOST
Anti-Pick Very Good #11 Poor Pick Rating
WON
@6.99 No Unit Bet Suggested (No Value)   @1.14
$10 Bet Profit: $1.4 #11 Ranked $1.67 Bet Profit: $0.23 #2 Ranked $16.67 Value Bet Profit: $-16.67

Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Matt Brown vs Tim Means Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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64%
   
36%
81 (88)%
 
11 (12)%
91%
 
9%
80%
 
20%
WON
Pick Rating Moderate #6
LOST
@1.56 Suggested Bet: 2.5 units on Matt Brown: Returned 1.40 Units   @2.75
$10 Bet Profit: $5.6 #6 Ranked $10 Bet Profit: $5.6 #8 Ranked $6.67 Value Bet Profit: $3.74

Bookies Favourite
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Alex Garcia vs Mike Swick Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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80%
   
22%
30 (61)%
 
19 (39)%
67%
 
33%
49%
 
51%
Crowd Weighted PickValue Pick
WON
#1 Fantastic Pick Rating
LOST
@1.25 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @4.55
$10 Bet Profit: $-10 #1 Ranked $18.33 Bet Profit: $-18.33 #1 Ranked $18.33 Value Bet Profit: $-18.33

Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Cathal Pendred vs John Howard Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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52%
   
50%
27 (45)%
 
33 (55)%
47%
 
53%
80%
 
20%
LOST
Pick Rating Good+ #3
WON
@1.91 Suggested Bet: 5 units on Cathal Pendred: Returned -5.00 Units   @2.00
$10 Bet Profit: $-10 #3 Ranked $15 Bet Profit: $-15 #4 Ranked $13.33 Value Bet Profit: $-13.33

Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Cody Garbrandt vs Enrique Briones Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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86%
   
16%
38 (95)%
 
2 (5)%
95%
 
5%
80%
 
20%
Value Pick
WON
Pick Rating Poor #10 Moderate Anti-Pick
LOST
@1.16 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @6.41
$10 Bet Profit: $1.6 #10 Ranked $3.33 Bet Profit: $0.53 #7 Ranked $8.33 Value Bet Profit: $-8.33

Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Neil Seery vs Louis Smolka Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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47%
   
55%
14 (40)%
 
21 (60)%
40%
 
60%
34%
 
66%
Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
LOST
#8 Moderate Pick Rating
WON
@2.15 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @1.83
$10 Bet Profit: $8.3 #8 Ranked $6.67 Bet Profit: $5.54 #10 Ranked $3.33 Value Bet Profit: $2.76

Bookies FavouriteCrowd Weighted PickValue Pick
Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile Yosdenis Cedeno vs Cody Pfister Fighter Wikipedia Page Fighter Record on Sherdog UFC Fighter Profile
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66%
   
35%
25 (81)%
 
6 (19)%
82%
 
18%
73%
 
27%
LOST
Pick Rating Low #9
WON
@1.51 No Unit Bet Suggested (Insufficient Predictions)   @2.85
$10 Bet Profit: $-10 #9 Ranked $5 Bet Profit: $-5 #11 Ranked $1.67 Value Bet Profit: $-1.67


Chart

 

Unit Betting

$ bet per unit:

  % Chance Units
Bet
Potential
Win
Units
Profit
Cash
Bet
Cash
Profit
ROI
Bet on Gunnar Nelson vs Brandon Thatch (@2.60) 67%   7.25   11.60   11.60   $0.00   $0.00 160%
Bet on Cathal Pendred vs John Howard (@1.91) 80%   5   4.55   -5.00   $0.00   $0.00
Bet on Chad Mendes vs Conor McGregor (@2.70) 53%   4   6.80   -4.00   $0.00   $0.00
Bet on Robbie Lawler vs Rory MacDonald (@2.65) 50%   3.25   5.36   5.36   $0.00   $0.00 165%
Bet on Matt Brown vs Tim Means (@1.56) 80%   2.5   1.40   1.40   $0.00   $0.00 56%
Bet on Dennis Bermudez vs Jeremy Stephens (@1.50) 83%   2.25   1.12   -2.25   $0.00   $0.00
Average Odds: @2.02   24.25 30.84 7.11   $0.00 $0.00 29.33%

Bet Every Fight: Bet Calculator

Total Bet Amount:

 

Weighted Betting

Based on a total bet of $110.00 over 11 fights
  Pick Opponent Bet Potential
Profit (ROI)
Risk Actual
Result (ROI)
#1 Mike Swick Alex Garcia $18.33 $65.07
 
-$18.33
#2 Gunnar Nelson Brandon Thatch $16.67 $26.67
 
$26.67
#3 Cathal Pendred John Howard $15.00 $13.65
 
-$15.00
#4 Chad Mendes Conor McGregor $13.33 $22.66
 
-$13.33
#5 Robbie Lawler Rory MacDonald $11.67 $19.26
 
$19.26
#6 Matt Brown Tim Means $10.00 $5.60
 
$5.60
#7 Dennis Bermudez Jeremy Stephens $8.33 $4.16
 
-$8.33
#8 Louis Smolka Neil Seery $6.67 $5.54
 
$5.54
#9 Yosdenis Cedeno Cody Pfister $5.00 $2.55
 
-$5.00
#10 Cody Garbrandt Enrique Briones $3.33 $0.53
 
$0.53
#11 Thomas Almeida Brad Pickett $1.67 $0.23
 
$0.23
      $110.00 $165.93 (151%)   $-2.16 (-2%)

Value Betting

  Pick Opponent Bet Potential
Profit (ROI)
Risk Actual
Result (ROI)
#1 Mike Swick Alex Garcia $18.33 $65.07
 
-$18.33
#2 Brad Pickett Thomas Almeida $16.67 $99.85
 
-$16.67
#3 Gunnar Nelson Brandon Thatch $15.00 $24.00
 
$24.00
#4 Cathal Pendred John Howard $13.33 $12.13
 
-$13.33
#5 Chad Mendes Conor McGregor $11.67 $19.84
 
-$11.67
#6 Robbie Lawler Rory MacDonald $10.00 $16.50
 
$16.50
#7 Enrique Briones Cody Garbrandt $8.33 $45.07
 
-$8.33
#8 Matt Brown Tim Means $6.67 $3.74
 
$3.74
#9 Dennis Bermudez Jeremy Stephens $5.00 $2.50
 
-$5.00
#10 Louis Smolka Neil Seery $3.33 $2.76
 
$2.76
#11 Yosdenis Cedeno Cody Pfister $1.67 $0.85
 
-$1.67
      $110.00 $292.31 (266%)   $-28.00 (-25%)
 
 
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