|It's important that everyone who uses the site to place bets understands what information is displayed where on the site. This page logs all changes to the equations over time and how it has affected our profitablity.
The whole point of the system is to take people's raw data (which we never alter) and be as clever as we can with it, to give the best predictions possible. There's no way I was ever going to get the equations perfect first time, so they have changed over time. I programmed the system so we can change small variables and run the whole system from the start, to see what difference it would have made to our predictions and find what gives us the best results.
The unit profit / average $10 bet profit shown around the site is the results we would have got if we'd used the current equations. Sometimes that improves a historic event's performance and sometimes it makes it worse. I try not to get too hung up on what difference it makes to historic values and try to just change the equations to what I think are fundamentally better equations. If I wanted to, I could change things so the current equation profit was about +300 units but that would be pointless if the next event's predictions were garbage.
Here are our current stats (which automatically upates).
Actual overall unit profit:
173.80 units (ROI
Unit profit under current equation: +185.36 units (ROI
If you want to see what we bet on at the time, you can view this page, which is linked to from here and the homepage. Also, we display the actual picks at the time, at the bottom of each event page.
Why can't you just display what you actually predicted on the event pages? We do log our actual historic predictions on this page but we can't keep the old predictions in the system. It's easiest to explain why, with an example. We give every bet a value, which is either positive or negative depending on whether the user got it right. That value then gets passed on to the user to rate the worth of their future predictions. If we make a change to the value equation, that changes every single bet value, which in turn alters the rankings for every user's predictions. That process runs from the first event to the current event, totally interlinked. So for that reason, we have to display how every user was doing under the new equations, how they affected the results and what we would have predicted.
The more events we have completed, the more data we have to work with and the better we can make the system work.
To see how our system has improved over time, you can view the changes below.