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MMA Handicapper Profile: Lummis Locks

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Lummis Locks (Lummis)


MMA MHandicapper - Lummis Locks

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MMA Betting Stats Summary

Overall Stats

Straight Fight Picks

Props

Parlays

Right 36 (61%) Right 25 (64%) Right 9 (50%) Right 2 (100%)
Wrong 23 (39%) Wrong 14 (36%) Wrong 9 (50%) Wrong 0 (0%)
Avg Odds 1.84 Avg Odds 1.69 Avg Odds 2.29 Avg Odds 1.80
Units Bet 166.3 Units Bet 134.2 Units Bet 28.2 Units Bet 4.0
Avg Bet 2.82 Avg Bet 3.44 Avg Bet 1.57 Avg Bet 2.00
Units Profit 23.96 Units Profit 24.66 Units Profit -3.73 Units Profit 3.04
ROI % 14% ROI % 18% ROI % -13% ROI % 76%
View Handicapper's Stats

Straight Pick Stats

  Picks Correct % Correct Units Bet Units Profit Profit per Pick ROI
Big Favorites 14 (36%) 9 64 % 48.50 0.36 0.03 1%
Slight Favorites 14 (36%) 11 79 % 57.00 20.62 1.47 36%
Slight Underdogs 8 (21%) 4 50 % 27.60 3.12 0.39 11%
Big Underdogs 3 (8%) 1 33 % 1.05 0.55 0.18 52%
 

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Lummis Locks's MMA Handicapper Bio

-Bad Beats-

UFC 216 -
Bibulatov -I feel kind of hard done by with this one. Should have probs stayed away because the odds but Moraga is srsly overrated and Bibulatov is a far better fighter. Bib got buzzed then got caught with the perfect shot after he ducked under a kick, came up and tried to return with an uppercut. It happens, but I felt more safe in this fight since it was FLW and its only Moraga's 3rd TKO/KO win out of 24 fights, and the first one he has had in over 5 years. I'am obviously a bit biased but I felt like the ref should have let it go a bit longer too. The guy was undefeated you give him a chance to survive in guard, the ref practically jumped on him as he hit the ground and first punch was thrown.

UFC FN 116 -
Tony Martin -Split decision. Kinda frustrating since if Tony was able to keep away from the fence in rnd 2 he would have won. OAM took round 2 with trips against the fence. I feel like Tony should have been more prepared for the trips as its one of his main methods, its annoying to see him be able to get back to his feet from the first trip in round 2 but still get taken down from it again not long after.
Round 1 was close but went to Tony in my opinion and should be no doubt if you are watching at home but judges are consistently bad so w/e they are in person and cant see all the shots land clearly like us at home. Rnd 3 was obliviously clear cut Tony no doubt. Pretty darn close to getting a finish in round 3 as well so that's always extra fun.

Sergio Moraes -Now this isnt a bad beat obviously but I thought it was worth a mention. The early part of the fight went exactly as I thought. Usman chose to avoid the ground even when given the opportunity with Moraes laying on his back. He also took a good few shots just like I thought. Usman doesnt get into range that fast and therefore the not so pretty but effective fast hands of Moraes had some proper connections and were getting through. Up until the flash knock out the fight was going really really well considering the odds. If the calf kick didnt do so much damage early on we could have seen better movement to avoid finish since he was backed up against the cage and more power in the strikes that landed. Would have really liked to see atleast a couple rounds its a shame that the left hook Usman threw out in front moved Moraes guard and the straight right from Usman landed picture perfect right down the chamber so he went straight out. Fair play to Usman he is obviously a beast but these odds were still absolutely ridiculous and I would make the same bet again but at 1 unit this time considering how well the fight was going and how I predicted how It would play out. Usman scared to go to the ground but consistently willing to just exchange strikes as he walks his opponent down.

UFC 215 -
Shevchenko / Shev Dec / Shev rnd 4 / Shev rnd 5 -All there is to say, is shev won that fight at least 3 rounds to 2 and possibly 4 rounds to 1. I should have about a 30 unit difference in my profit margin. The absolute state of the judges scorecard's was hard to process. The incompetence is almost unbearable how they can all have such completely different scorecards and still come up wrong. I think they only agreed on one round and the judge that gave the fight to shev 48-47, should have had 49-46 shev as he didn't give her round 4?????? Ill take it on the chin in hyndsight the units were obviously high and props to nunes she showed improved cardio but gave up her only chance to win in my eyes and that was to hunt shev down and finish her on the ground in rnds 1/2 because she did not win that decision. Rounds 2/4/5 were 100% shev. Nunes barely landed a significant hand strike to the head all fight and most of all in round 5. She literally done no fucking damage that round what is up with the judges even after the rules have been updated and further emphasized on the point of DAMAGE, they can make such a big mistake that shouldn't fly anymore, a takedown and nothing else CANNOT win you a round. Even when Nunes finally got some top position time she STILL DIDNT do anything. Even then shev was getting in good blows. If you think Nunes won round 5 then you need to get out of the 2013 wrestling era and get yourself updated on the criteria to judge a round. The number one thing you look for is damage, if you can clearly say who done the most damage in a round, then look no further and fill in the correct 10-9, you clueless cunts.

I don't regret the round 4/5 bets as the value I managed to get on them was absolutely insane. If Nunes had been more aggressive and looked to grapple Shev sooner then rounds 4/5 would have been 10x more scary. Nunes barely threw anything all fight and so many non committal slapping leg kicks that done absolutely nothing. You can tell she was absolutely shit scared of gassing and getting finished again with it being the first time she has been in the championship rounds. She had no way to win a decision and didn't. Rounds 2/4/5 without a doubt go to Shev. Possibly even 2/3/4/5. So if she had fought her best way to win, which would have been stalking shev and going for takedowns, I would have been laughing as round 4 started. Instead she took the safe and risky as fuck option but it payed off cause half the judges are completely incompetent. Round 5 is a clear cut round. I just can't believe a takedown can sway professionals, they are probably victims to overwhelming biased people unknowingly put on the end of rounds too. Or quite possibly they dont have the memory capacity to remember the whole round and keep it all in perspective.

Cejudo/Reus O2.5 -I normally stay well clear of Overs due to the nature of MMA being so unpredictable but I was eased back into looking at the market due to thinking I'm missing out on some value here and im too quick to dismiss. Cejudo hasn't finished a single person from strikes in a semi-major or major promotion or at 125 pounds before this fight. He also doesn't have a single submission win and also not much of a submission game at all (submission by strikes only). His wrestling credentials allow him to keep the fight on the feet or at least means Reis can't hold him down for any extended period of time. The fight is at 125 pounds. Reis although a long 30 fight career had only been finished by strikes two times previously. One time by the Bellator 145 pound champion and the other by Eduardo Dantas. This fight just seemed perfect to me. I dont know if its just terrible luck but one of the last Overs I bet on was Tecia Torres vs Lima. I. think I only have a couple more burns left in me before I leave the Overs for good as its just too unpredictable.


UFC FN 115 -
Desmond Greed -He put up a solid showing and was very close to taking the decision if a few things went differently. He defended the early takedown threat and didn't give Khabilov any real time on top. All he needed was more output and to not take his foot off the gas, which it looked like he was doing whenever he found any real success on the feet. He was far too timid this fight. Still worth the shot at the ridiculous odds of 3.8 I would play it again at the same odds.

Edilov/Bojan U1.5 -2 seconds. I repeat. Two fcking seconds this bet lost by. Unbelievable. Edilov nearly TKO'd him about 3 times prior to the finish, just one or two more punches on target in a flurry could have cashed this bet. Although I can't see myself betting Edilov again as he was really beginning to noticeably slow down and might have been saved by the finish. Precisely why I stayed away from putting him in any accumulator's. He has finished so many of his fights quickly. I can't wait to fade him against someone that's durable with good cardio.

Zabit/Santiago U1.5 -I feel pretty hard done by that fact the bet missed by less than 2 minutes and how he Zabit stated at the end of the fight that he wanted to show more of his grappling tonight, to prove he is a proper mixed martial artist, so that's why he chose to grapple more than normal. I still feel like this was a solid bet at good odds.

DWTNCS:Kelly McGill, Anton Berzin and Karl Reed
-All can be chalked up to in experience/Low fight IQ but I wont be making the same mistakes again when DWTNC is back on again by betting any straight plays on it. Anton Berzin was looking worryingly tired early into the fight. I'm not sure if it was the adrenaline rush from 1/2 knockdowns, the fact he was leaning heavily with every strike and having to skip into range basically every time, or if the pressure got to him. Could have been a combination. Karl Reed just had to swallow his pride and not continually go for takedowns against a guy he is already beating up on the feet handily in order to win. He gassed himself out repeatedly going for takedowns from the start and I guess couldn't handle the fact that this was the only guy he had met so far that he couldn't take to the ground. Some proper fight IQ allows him to stop the takedown attempts at the beginning of round 2 and focus primarily on keeping his range and kicking his way to an easy win on the outside.

Bellator 182 -
Ward -I got baited by the fact Ward was at evens odds against a weathered Gonzalez and it was going according to plan but I should have known something of low fight IQ would lose me the fight. How the hell did he get caught in the 3rd round by that telegraphed guillotine that Gonzalez was going for ALL fight.







 

Picks on Upcoming MMA Fights by Lummis Locks

Bellator 185, Uncasville, 20th Oct '17

Straight Pick Opponent Odds Unit Bet    
Gegard Mousasi Alexander Shlemenko 1.36 5 MMA Bookmaker
Gegard Mousasi Alexander Shlemenko 1.29 2 MMA Bookmaker



UFC Fight Night 118 Gdansk, Gdansk, 21st Oct '17

Straight Pick Opponent Odds Unit Bet    
Donald Cerrone Darren Till 1.68 2 View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
Devin Clark Jan Blachowicz 1.81 2 MMA Bookmaker
Andre Fili Artem Lobov 1.92 2 View Pick Writeup MMA Bookmaker
Felipe Arantes Josh Emmett 4.18 0.25 MMA Bookmaker


Props and Parlays     Unit Bet    
  Fight Pick Odds
Pr Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Jodie Esquibel Over 2.5 rounds 1.40
  2.5
  Fight Pick Odds
Pr Donald Cerrone vs Darren Till Fight doesn't go to decision 1.59
  1




UFC 217, New York, 4th Nov '17

Straight Pick Opponent Odds Unit Bet    
Michael Bisping Georges St-Pierre 2.30 1 MMA Bookmaker
Joanna Jedrzejczyk Rose Namajunas 1.33 10 MMA Bookmaker
Jorge Masvidal Stephen Thompson 2.26 2 MMA Bookmaker


Props and Parlays     Unit Bet    
  Fight Pick Odds
Pr Cody Garbrandt vs T.J. Dillashaw Under 3.5 rounds 2.45
  2
  Fight Pick Odds
Pr Stephen Thompson vs Jorge Masvidal Over 1.5 rounds 1.33
  3.05




Lummis Locks's MMA Handicapper's Pick History


Your $ bet per unit is set at $10. You can edit that value in your settings.

UFC 216, Las Vegas, Nevada, 7th Oct '17

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Tony Ferguson Kevin Lee W 1.62 10 6.20 $62.00 62% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Tony Ferguson Kevin Lee W 1.50 4 2.00 $20.00 50% Bet Info
Demetrious Johnson Ray Borg W 1.10 5 0.50 $5.00 10% Bet Info
Magomed Bibulatov John Moraga L 1.25 4 -4.00 $-40.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   1.34 23.00 4.70 $47.00 20%  
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Tony Ferguson vs Kevin Lee Fight doesn't go to decision W 1.43
  4 1.72 $17.20 43% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
PrPi Brad Tavares vs Thales Leites Tavares wins by decision W 2.10
  0.5 0.55 $5.50 110% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
PrPi Demetrious Johnson vs Ray Borg Johnson points handicap -5.5 W 1.17
Pi Brad Tavares vs Thales Leites Tavares to win W 1.62
    Parlay Odds:   1.90
  1 0.90 $8.95 90% Bet Info
Prop & Parlay Event Totals:   5.50 3.17 $31.65 58%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   28.50 7.87 $78.66 28%  

Bellator 183 Henderson vs. Freire, San Jose, California, 23rd Sep '17

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Lorenz Larkin Paul Daley L 1.36 3 -3.00 $-30.00 -100% Bet Info
Lorenz Larkin Paul Daley L 1.40 2 -2.00 $-20.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   1.38 5.00 -5.00 $-50.00 -100%  
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Paul Daley vs Lorenz Larkin Over 1.5 rounds W 1.71
  1.5 1.06 $10.65 71% Bet Info
Prop & Parlay Event Totals:   1.50 1.06 $10.65 71%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   6.50 -3.94 $-39.35 -61%  

UFC Fight Night 117 St. Preux vs. Shogun 2, Saitama, Japan, 22nd Sep '17

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Jessica Andrade Claudia Gadelha W 3.20 0.5 1.10 $11.00 220% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Dong Hyun Kim (2) Takanori Gomi W 1.41 2.5 1.03 $10.25 41% Bet Info
Luke Jumeau Shinsho Anzai L 1.52 2 -2.00 $-20.00 -100% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   1.79 5.00 0.13 $1.25 3%  
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Takanori Gomi vs Dong Hyun Kim (2) Under 1.5 rounds W 1.68
  2 1.36 $13.60 68% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Gokhan Saki vs Luis Henrique da Silva Under 1.5 rounds W 1.66
  2 1.32 $13.20 66% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Syuri Kondo vs Chan-Mi Jeon Over 2.5 rounds W 1.41
  1.25 0.51 $5.13 41% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
PrPi Keita Nakamura vs Alex Morono Nakamura wins inside distance L 4.91
  0.5 -0.50 $-5.00 -100% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Hyun Gyu Lim vs Daichi Abe Under 1.5 rounds L 1.71
  1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
Prop & Parlay Event Totals:   6.75 1.69 $16.92 25%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   11.75 1.82 $18.17 15%  

UFC Fight Night 116 Rockhold vs. Branch, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, 16th Sep '17

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Anthony Smith Hector Lombard W 2.26 1 1.26 $12.60 126% Bet Info
Gregor Gillespie Jason Gonzalez W 1.26 4 1.04 $10.40 26% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Sergio Moraes Kamaru Usman L 6.30 0.3 -0.30 $-3.00 -100% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Justin Ledet Azunna Anyanwu W 1.33 5 1.65 $16.50 33% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Tony Martin Olivier Aubin-Mercier L 2.33 2.5 -2.50 $-25.00 -100% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Tony Martin Olivier Aubin-Mercier L 2.33 1.1 -1.10 $-11.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.00 13.90 0.05 $0.50 0%  
  Fight Pick   Odds
PrPi Gregor Gillespie vs Jason Gonzalez Gillespie wins inside distance W 1.90
  1.12 1.01 $10.08 90% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
PrPi Luke Rockhold vs David Branch Rockhold wins by submission W 3.75
  0.5 1.37 $13.75 275% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Alex Reyes vs Mike Perry Under 1.5 rounds W 1.77
  1.5 1.16 $11.55 77% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
PrPi Kamaru Usman vs Sergio Moraes Moraes wins by decision L 15.15
  0.3 -0.30 $-3.00 -100% Bet Info
Prop & Parlay Event Totals:   3.42 3.24 $32.38 95%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   17.32 3.29 $32.88 19%  

UFC 215, Edmonton, Canada, 9th Sep '17

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Valentina Shevchenko Amanda Nunes L 2.00 10 -10.00 $-100.00 -100% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Rafael dos Anjos Neil Magny W 1.54 4 2.16 $21.60 54% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Ilir Latifi Tyson Pedro W 1.84 3 2.52 $25.20 84% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Gavin Tucker Rick Glenn L 1.67 8 -8.00 $-80.00 -100% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Alex White Mitch Clarke W 1.81 2 1.62 $16.20 81% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Arjan Bhullar Luis Henrique W 1.59 1 0.59 $5.90 59% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   1.73 28.00 -11.11 $-111.10 -40%  
  Fight Pick   Odds
PrPi Amanda Nunes vs Valentina Shevchenko Shevchenko wins in round 4 L 26.00
  0.5 -0.50 $-5.00 -100% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
PrPi Amanda Nunes vs Valentina Shevchenko Shevchenko wins in round 5 L 34.00
  1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
PrPi Amanda Nunes vs Valentina Shevchenko Shevchenko wins by decision L 4.50
  2 -2.00 $-20.00 -100% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Henry Cejudo vs Wilson Reis Over 2.5 rounds L 1.50
  6 -6.00 $-60.00 -100% Bet Info
Prop & Parlay Event Totals:   9.50 -9.50 $-95.00 -100%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   37.50 -20.61 $-206.10 -55%  

UFC Fight Night Struve vs. Volkov, Rotterdam, Holland, 2nd Sep '17

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Alexander Volkov Stefan Struve W 1.85 1 0.85 $8.50 85% Bet Info
Marion Reneau Talita De Oliveira W 1.34 3 1.02 $10.20 34% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Leon Edwards Bryan Barberena W 1.33 5 1.65 $16.50 33% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Leon Edwards Bryan Barberena W 1.39 4 1.56 $15.60 39% Bet Info
Darren Till Bojan Velickovic W 1.69 4 2.76 $27.60 69% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Mairbek Taisumov Felipe Silva W 1.54 6 3.24 $32.40 54% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Mairbek Taisumov Felipe Silva W 1.54 2 1.08 $10.80 54% Bet Info
Desmond Green Rustam Khabilov L 3.80 0.25 -0.25 $-2.50 -100% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   1.63 25.25 11.91 $119.10 47%  
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Abdul-Kerim Edilov vs Bojan Mihajlovic Under 1.5 rounds L 1.66
  1.5 -1.50 $-15.00 -100% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Zabit Magomedsharipov vs Mike Santiago Under 1.5 rounds L 2.40
  1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
  Fight Pick   Odds
Pr Rustam Khabilov vs Desmond Green Over 2.5 rounds W 1.28
Pi Talita De Oliveira vs Marion Reneau Reneau to win W 1.34
    Parlay Odds:   1.72
  3 2.15 $21.46 72% Bet Info
Prop & Parlay Event Totals:   5.50 -0.35 $-3.54 -6%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   30.75 11.56 $115.56 38%  

DWTNCS 8, Las Vegas, 29th Aug '17

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Brevon Lewis Elias Urbina W 2.16 1 1.16 $11.60 116% View Pick Writeup Bet Info
Kelly McGill Lauren Mueller L 1.59 1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   1.83 2.00 0.16 $1.60 8%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   2.00 0.16 $1.60 8%  

Bellator 182, Verona, New York, 26th Aug '17

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Brennan Ward Fernando Gonzalez L 2.00 1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   2.00 1.00 -1.00 $-10.00 -100%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   1.00 -1.00 $-10.00 -100%  

DWTNCS 7, Las Vegas, 22nd Aug '17

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Anton Berzin Kennedy Nzechukwu L 1.40 1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   1.40 1.00 -1.00 $-10.00 -100%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   1.00 -1.00 $-10.00 -100%  

DWTNCS 6, Las Vegas, Nevada, 15th Aug '17

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Karl Reed Cameron Olson L 1.65 1 -1.00 $-10.00 -100% Bet Info
Grant Dawson Adrian Diaz W 2.50 1 1.50 $15.00 150% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   1.99 2.00 0.50 $5.00 25%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   2.00 0.50 $5.00 25%  

UFC Fight Night 114 Pettis vs. Moreno, Mexico City, 5th Aug '17

Pick Opponent   Odds Unit
Bet
Unit
Profit
Cash
Profit
ROI  
Sergio Pettis Brandon Moreno W 2.38 10 13.80 $138.00 138% Bet Info
Alexa Grasso Randa Markos W 1.74 10 7.40 $74.00 74% Bet Info
Jack Hermansson Brad Scott W 1.48 4 1.92 $19.20 48% Bet Info
Dustin Ortiz Hector Sandoval W 1.55 4 2.20 $22.00 55% Bet Info
Straight Pick Event Totals:   1.73 28.00 25.32 $253.20 90%  
Event Totals (Props, Parlays & Straight Bets):   28.00 25.32 $253.20 90%  

 
 
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